Why 5E may be the last edition of D&D

[ccs]

May it be the Last Edition of Dungeons & Dragons?

Not a chance.

Not even if something were to go terribly wrong & the current game tanked, Hasbro folded, etc. Because after awhile someone would sift through the wreckage, pull out the IP, & go "You know, this'll still sell..." & re-launch it.
So the only question is when?

On a happier note, I am on record (I'll let you all look it up.) as predicting it'll occur in 2024.
Happy 50th D&D!
It will be tweaked just enough to (strongly) encourage you to buy the new stuff, but not so much to invalidate your 5e stuff. There will be a lot of fanfare involved.

 

[Charlaquin]

There will never be a final edition of D&D, as long as RPG publishing is still viable. If it starts to decline, they’ll revitalize the brand with a new edition. If WotC folds, someone else will buy the IP and they’ll make a new edition. 5e is likely to last much longer than any previous edition has, but 6e is a matter of when, not if. Just because we can’t yet predict when doesn’t mean it won’t ever come.

 

[Charlaquin]

It will be tweaked just enough to (strongly) encourage you to buy the new stuff, but not so much to invalidate your 5e stuff. There will be a lot of fanfare involved.

Yeah, 6e will almost definitely be back-compatible with 5e when it eventually comes, unless something very unexpected happens between now and then.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

Well, nothing in the history of the world has ever lasted forever. I suspect this edition will last longer than any previous ones, but 6E will one day be a big thing. Maybe the biggest thing!

I doubt it. I think 6e will be a relatively small thing, more in line with something like The One Ring 2nd Edition. The same game, cleaned up, some lessons learned, minor changes, math changed where they learned too late that they'd biffed an equation, etc. I doubt that even what subclasses are in the PHB will be changed much. I'd expect stuff like Four Elements Monk getting a rebalance, maybe Ranger, at most, would get a real overhaul. That's the most drastic change I'd expect to see. You'll be able to play a 5e Fey Warlock in a 6e game.

It will probably come in a gorgeous boxed set, though.

I'd love a book for 5e like 4e's Rules Compendium, and I wouldn't be surprised if such a thing came out with "6e".

its just been 4 years. I think they will start thinking seriously about 6e in the next couple of years, and we would see it around 2024, restoring the 10 year edition cycle.

Maybe, but it won't really be a new edition.

Yeah, 6e will almost definitely be back-compatible with 5e when it eventually comes, unless something very unexpected happens between now and then.

yeah, 5e would have to tank hard for anything else to happen.

 

[delericho]

I think the OP might be right.

The thing is, any new edition inevitably splits the customer base, which means it doesn't make sense to do a small, incremental release - better to patch as much as you can with supplements and errata until you really can't live with the warts and then do a full revision of the whole thing.

But it only makes sense to do that full revision when sales drop dramatically, and if they drop dramatically from their current great height then there's a real chance that the Powers That Be will instead shelve it for a re-release in 20 years - probably with the same rules again.

5e is doing spectacularly well because it is just the right product at just the right time. It's really hard to envisage any 6e that could do as well - by the time it was released "just the right time" will have passed.

 

[abirdcall]

Certainly not for a long time.

The game will change though. The current model is 1 rules supplement every year. A person who buys all of them will have a different looking game.

I think the intent will be to have the PHB be the evergreen book. Want to play D&D? Here's the PHB.

The game was designed to be modular. I bet they are working on a book of alternate features and rules variants.

 

[Charlaquin]

I think the OP might be right.

The thing is, any new edition inevitably splits the customer base, which means it doesn't make sense to do a small, incremental release - better to patch as much as you can with supplements and errata until you really can't live with the warts and then do a full revision of the whole thing.

But it only makes sense to do that full revision when sales drop dramatically, and if they drop dramatically from their current great height then there's a real chance that the Powers That Be will instead shelve it for a re-release in 20 years - probably with the same rules again.

5e is doing spectacularly well because it is just the right product at just the right time. It's really hard to envisage any 6e that could do as well - by the time it was released "just the right time" will have passed.

Just pointing out, folks have said similar things about every edition, save 4e. Granted, the situation is different now. But the situation is always different. It's odd to me that after so long, people still think this one will finally be the edition that never gets replaced.

It is fair to say that 6e is not in the forseeable future. It is naieve to say 6e is not in the future at all.

 

[Lanefan]

There'll be a 6e. Guaranteed. The only question is when.

What I'd like to see - a pipe dream, I know - is 6e be in fact two editions in one. A split edition, where one branch goes old-school and harkens hard back to 0e-1e-OSR and the other goes new-school and incorporates the best elements of 3e-4e*-5e. The two 6e's (6e-old and 6e-new?) wouldn't even have to necessarily be completely compatible with each other.

* - yes 4e had some good individual elements and ideas that are well worth a second try, even though the overall whole was a disappointment.

 

[delericho]

Just pointing out, folks have said similar things about every edition, save 4e. Granted, the situation is different now. But the situation is always different. It's odd to me that after so long, people still think this one will finally be the edition that never gets replaced.

It is fair to say that 6e is not in the forseeable future. It is naieve to say 6e is not in the future at all.

One way or another, there will be a final edition. Nothing lasts forever.

Whether this is the final edition or not remains to be seen - we'll only know definitively if and when the owners announce a new edition. But until they do, the possibility exists that they might not.

 

[Zardnaar]

Only way we will have a final edition is the IP tanks so hard its worthless.

Even the Amazon rankings show D&D is on a downward trend, it used to be in the to 100. Eventually they will hit saturation point (everyone who wants 5E has 5E).

Core book sales are always the thing, the 5E new releases hang aorund for a bit but not like the core rules. I would be surprised if they announce 6E in the next 2 years, if they did it we're looking at 2022 minimum release (8 year cycle), and I lean more towards 10 myself and no more than 12.

The IP outside the RPG is a pipe dream. There will be no AAA+ game or smash hit movie in the next 2-3 years, towards the end of the 5E lifecycle at best (personally I think its vapourware). Tie in T-Shirts and mugs and crappy games are the best its gonna get. A slow 5E decline is to be expected, I can't see how that could kill the IP although maybe some sort of corporate shenanigans could do it in as well as the IP becoming worthless (new CEO hate D&D/RPG's).

Betting man 10 years give or take a year.