Also that. But I doubt the break point is that big. Let us assume you can always hit 1 more enemy with Winged Horde because it is enemies only (reasonable assumption and in fact I'm not giving myself as big an advantage as actual play has led me to believe I would have, assuming enemies are there to be hit, Winged Horde can and will hit more of them then Burst will without hitting your melee allies).
It's still burst 1. I agree that one can often hit one more opponent, sometimes 2 more opponents with Winged Horde.
But, most fights are not 50 NPCs on 5 PCs. It's typically 5 on 5, possibly 5 or 9 or so with minions (maybe more in a massive minion battle). With a good DM who does not bunch up foes, 1 foe more with Winged Horde is a reasonable outcome, but more on a consistent basis (when casting Winged Horde is better than doing an Encounter power or something else) shouldn't be extremely common.
1d6 average is 3. At level 1, with no magic items, this gives up 7 damage for a normal Wizard with Burst, 3 for Winged Horde. Hit two enemies with burst, 3 with Winged Horde. 9 vs 21. Well and good! Scorching burst wins on damage (and damage only, Winged Horde is still superior control).
Now we just keep upping the static mods.
12 vs 23
15 vs 25
18 vs 27
21 vs 29
23 vs 31
26 vs 33
29 vs 35
32 vs 37
35 vs 39
38 vs 41
41 vs 43
44 vs 45
47 vs 47! Whee.
So +13 (without int) to tie under the best case scenario for Scorching Burst. Gensai Wizards will have that at late heroic/early Paragon. All of them should have it during epic. Various builds will get it sooner.
Must be the advanced math. How many static mods give +13 where it is not ability score and this can be done At Will? Let's do more realistic math here.
12 vs 23 +1 implement
15 vs 25 +2 implement
15 vs 27 level 8 ability score
18 vs 29 +3 implement
18 vs 31 level 14 ability score
21 vs 33 +4 implement
33 vs 48 level 21 ability score plus Epic class bonus plus second d6
36 vs 50 +5 implement
36 vs 54 level 27 ability score
39 vs 58 +6 implement
Sure, each +1 bonus from something else like a feat gains 3 on the left column and only 2 on the right column, but there are not too many static ones of those without some type of super optimized specialized build (i.e. ones that occur every time, a player might get 2 such feats, magic items are more rare), most are dynamic bonuses handed out by Leader allies and those are better used with Encounter or Daily powers as a general rule.
The table above is same number of foes 3 vs. 3 (you messed that up in your math). With 3 Winged Horde foes vs. 2 Scorching Burst foes, it becomes:
12 vs 16 +1 implement
15 vs 18 +2 implement
15 vs 20 level 8 ability score
18 vs 22 +3 implement
18 vs 24 level 14 ability score
21 vs 26 +4 implement
33 vs 38 level 21 ability score plus Epic class bonus plus second d6
36 vs 40 +5 implement
36 vs 42 level 27 ability score
39 vs 44 +6 implement
And this only holds true typically in the first half of an encounter. As encounters wind down and players start using more At Will powers, there are fewer foes and hence, fewer opportunities to get 3 foes with Winged Horde and 2 with Scorching Burst. As an example, in the final round when there is only typically 1 foe or in cases where artillery is attacking from multiple angles, then each of these spells can get at most one foe.
EDIT: Oh, hitting more targets ups your crit chance. Not factored in, but it'd change things a bit (in Winged Horde's favor).
Yup, especially with more powerful implements. It's hardly a bump going from 3.5 damage to 6 damage at level 1 for every 60th foe hit in the 3 foes attacked vs. 2 foes attacked case.
I agree that Winged Horde is better at late Paragon and Epic levels for a wide variety of reasons. It probably makes sense to switch over to it at some point in time. But, Scorching Burst is often better at Heroic and early Paragon levels.
Aulirophile said:
My Gensai Wizard static mods are over 50. -int brings that to the high 40s.
Could you post these wonderful +50+ static modifiers to damage that your PC has and which the vast majority of Wizards can acquire?
Or is this just one set of supped up optimization Wizard class with a specific race and specific Paragaon Paths and specific Epic Destinies and specific feats and specific magic items that can pull this off?