Human commoners get 10's. Halflings have a racial +2. As for variant humans, they get 2 +1's, and 10+1=11, not 12. Second, humans get +s in all 6 stats with no one stat having dominance, that means that your commoners, even if you give them magical 12's, will still only have a 2 in 6 chance of having a 12 in an ability that gives a bonus to a weapon. 2/3 of the humans won't get that bonus to hit.
Adding the racial modifiers is an option, not a standard. We've had this discussion before, I don't expect you to listen to it this time either, but I like to dot my i's.
Sure, 2/3's might not, but the ones using the bows would likely be the ones with the higher dex, and the ones with the strength would be the ones using strength weapons. The entire point was simply to show that this insistance that Halfling luck would mean they hit far more often and crit far more often is a load of BS. Their Dex mod has done literally 20 times the work of the Lucky feature in ensuring accuracy.
First, were we're talking about goblins and they have a 15 AC. Second, a 16 is still a 30% chance to hit, not 25%. How am I supposed to know that you suddenly stopped talking about the Goblins that raid Halflings and just picked a random number out of your behind?
Because I've never been talking exclusively about goblins? I've talked about goblins as part of talking about common threats but I've also talked about ogres, hill giants and orcs. Who all have different ACs.
Also, you were supposed to know I was talking about that number when I literally said "So, if humans needed to roll a 16 to hit the enemy (because 10 in stat and no proficiency)". I didn't say "to hit a goblin" and I said "if". I was literally just demonstrating math.
And finally, it is only 30% if you include the +2 Dex, which is an option not a guarantee. It is also actually 31.5% if we include the Lucky feature, which was your entire argument. The feature you cared about was Lucky, and yet you keep ignoring it in your examples. Almost as though I was right, and it really does not cause the massive change you claimed it did. Since, you know, you don't seem to care about it any more and I need to keep correcting your numbers.
You aren't cheating by using variant humans. They just don't get any better to hit than normal humans when you are starting with 10's.
Except they do. Maybe only 1/3 of them, but +1 from the stat and then+1 from the feat gives them a 12 Dex.
Hell, even if you ignore that just getting proficiency alone is a +2 which is double what the the Halflings got from their 12 Dex. Making them more accurate.
Edit: Also, I like how you completely ignore the math showing how even without the 12 dex and prof, the humans are doing far more damage.
And you ignore the range problem
and you ignore the assertion that 400 attacks a round make no sense
and you ignore the weapons issue, still insisting on slings when that isn't what Mordenkainen's says they use. Which again, they say they throw rocks and hit them with sticks. Both of which are strength, not Dex.
Lot of ignoring the points the more I look at it.