D&D 5E Why I Think D&DN is In Trouble

[GreyLord]

Hasbro stock soared yesterday and there was a lot of reporting on that fact.

Bottom line was this: Boys line is way down (Marvel, Transformers, etc). Girls line and Gaming line is up, with Gaming now the largest part of the company's revenue for all of 2013 (which was not the case in prior years).

WOTC makes up the bulk of the gaming line.

They have a lot of promising stuff in the Entertainment sections of the company with multiple movie lines in the works.

Hasbro also bought back some stock, and issued cash dividends.

So even though Hasbro missed their numbers, there seems to be a lot of faith in the company from stockholders, who increased the stock price by something like 6% in one day (which is huge, it made national news).

For me, this tells me the following: WOTC has a lot more relative power in the company than they used to, since they rule Gaming and Gaming is the most revenue for the company now. WOTC directly controls D&D, and not Hasbro (they simply report as part of WOTC and not as their own division). There's been some sharing of resources and even employees between Magic the Gathering and D&D within WOTC. And we know there is an Entertainment focus on D&D. I think we might see a STRONG level of internal support for D&D Next, which means a lot more money behind it than we're all used to seeing.

We shall see, but I see good things for the D&D brand in the future.

Interesting. Sorry to go back on this, and not contending what was said or heard...but according to this post, if WotC makes a majority of the profits, you just said that they made over 2 Billion dollars last year. WotC...made over 2,000,000,000 DOLLARS.

(HASBRO Made 4.08 B which is slightly down from last year, but reported as flat, US/Canada made 2.01 Billion of that, which is a bigger reduction overall than the company at large, but you could say is offset by the international sales which grew 5%).

YOu are misinterpreting the call. Magic the Gathering Grew, along with several other brands including Nerf, Transformers, My Little Pony, and Girls Toys (despite many people who are against this category) which perhaps showed a much stronger showing than many other brands. Emerging markets also grew a great deal.

The Game category grew as well, and Magic the Gathering did great, but other brands are also contributing to it's growth. Gaming is by no means the biggest nor even a major chunk, in my opinion.

Transformers, which I think I already discussed with you previously, is very hopeful...which increased in a non-movie year, so expectations are that it will do even better when the movie is released.

The Marvel sales decreased...pretty dramatically...which means that they'll probably be keeping an eye on it.

Magic the Gathering and Backflip actually cost some profit as significant product investment costs were put into it...of course there were other items that were also raised the costs as well, so it's NOT just those above listed items.

Magic is doing well, but to say it's now the majority of the costs, or gaming is the majority of the company, is definitely a different opinion than mine in regards to Hasbro.

 

[Mistwell]

Interesting. Sorry to go back on this, and not contending what was said or heard...but according to this post, if WotC makes a majority of the profits, you just said that they made over 2 Billion dollars last year. WotC...made over 2,000,000,000 DOLLARS.

I didn't say they make the majority of profits. I said of the four sections of Hasbro, Gaming has the highest revenue. And of Gaming, WOTC is the largest portion for that section.

YOu are misinterpreting the call. Magic the Gathering Grew, along with several other brands including Nerf, Transformers, My Little Pony, and Girls Toys (despite many people who are against this category) which perhaps showed a much stronger showing than many other brands. Emerging markets also grew a great deal.

I didn't misinterpret anything, and you are definitely wrong on Transformers. They said Transformers shrank, not grew.

The Game category grew as well, and Magic the Gathering did great, but other brands are also contributing to it's growth. Gaming is by no means the biggest nor even a major chunk, in my opinion.

They posted the graphic for the year. It's not a question of opinion. Gaming is the largest of the four divisions, period. This is not in dispute, it's in their public report, and they are bound by law to be accurate in that report. And then they posted a graphic earlier breaking down what makes up sections, including Gaming, and WOTC was the dominate portion of that section.

Transformers, which I think I already discussed with you previously, is very hopeful...which increased in a non-movie year, so expectations are that it will do even better when the movie is released.

Transformers is down, they SAY it's down, I don't know why you're claiming otherwise. YOU are speculating it will be up next year with a new movie, but nothing in their report makes that assertion.

Magic is doing well, but to say it's now the majority of the costs, or gaming is the majority of the company, is definitely a different opinion than mine in regards to Hasbro.

You didn't read what I wrote very carefully. You assumed the word "majority" where there was none. It's a plurality between four groups. Nothing in the company has a majority, it's a pretty diverse company. But of the sections, Gaming is now the biggest. And of Gaming, WOTC is the biggest. So WOTC now has more influence than it used to, because it's the biggest part of the biggest part of the company (not because it's a majority of the company).

 

[dracomilan]

Can someone post the link to the Sec filings?

 

[GreyLord]

I didn't say they make the majority of profits. I said of the four sections of Hasbro, Gaming has the highest revenue. And of Gaming, WOTC is the largest portion for that section.



I didn't misinterpret anything, and you are definitely wrong on Transformers. They said Transformers shrank, not grew.



They posted the graphic for the year. It's not a question of opinion. Gaming is the largest of the four divisions, period. This is not in dispute, it's in their public report, and they are bound by law to be accurate in that report. And then they posted a graphic earlier breaking down what makes up sections, including Gaming, and WOTC was the dominate portion of that section.



Transformers is down, they SAY it's down, I don't know why you're claiming otherwise. YOU are speculating it will be up next year with a new movie, but nothing in their report makes that assertion.



You didn't read what I wrote very carefully. You assumed the word "majority" where there was none. It's a plurality between four groups. Nothing in the company has a majority, it's a pretty diverse company. But of the sections, Gaming is now the biggest. And of Gaming, WOTC is the biggest. So WOTC now has more influence than it used to, because it's the biggest part of the biggest part of the company (not because it's a majority of the company).

Transformers shows growth. If you are a stock holder, or even listened to the meeting, you should have caught that.

This is a non-movie year for Transformers, which is why I expect (IMO on this one) next year the Transformers brand will do even better.

You ONLY posted a part of the gaming, and it wasn't that explicite. Here, let me open it up for you, you posted an OLD graph when you posted information. Gaming WAS a large division, making up ~1.3 Billion in Sales. WotC does not quite equal HALF of that, which if you extrapolate means WotC is doing well with sales with MtG as the most notable portion of that. WotC does NOT equal a majority really, even if it is a major portion of that.

Boys Toys, normally does better then gaming, fell, to ~1.2 Billion. This means that while gaming grew by about 200 million, Boys Toys fell around 400 million, with notable falls in Marvel and other licensees. Despite that Transformers as a brand grew.

However, at the same time, product development in MtG (hence another reason why there may have been growth in that market) and other arenas in some ways associated with it actually cost some money as well which also dug into the accounts.

Girls Toys also made a little over a Billion.

Let's not mince words and try to cast allusions which are not there. I'd say it's better to be open and frank. You are alluding that MtG and WotC is the biggest name out there...but to tell the truth, boys toys IS bigger than WotC currently. WotC is a major brand for Hasbro, have no doubts...but better then Boys Toys?

Boys Toys saw a dramatic decrease, but WotC did not come close to making anywhere close to boys toys.

I'll send you the information so you can be more completely informed via PM.

 

[GreyLord]

Yeah Snow White is totally not traditional fantasy.

You're kinda moving the goalposts eh?

I'll have to support Mistwell on this. I'd say if Snow White is not traditional fantasy...WTH do you consider traditional fantasy???

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Interesting. Sorry to go back on this, and not contending what was said or heard...but according to this post, if WotC makes a majority of the profits, you just said that they made over 2 Billion dollars last year. WotC...made over 2,000,000,000 DOLLARS.

(HASBRO Made 4.08 B which is slightly down from last year, but reported as flat, US/Canada made 2.01 Billion of that, which is a bigger reduction overall than the company at large, but you could say is offset by the international sales which grew 5%).

wait... so if I say I made most of my money last week shoveling, and I made $600 you assume that I made $300 from shoveling? If I say I made $150 shoveling it could still be what I made the most out of...that just means I made $149 or less doing everything else...

I could have made $50 from gifts and $125 at work $75 for selling comic books, and $100 dancing for cash, and $100 at poker... I made $600, and only $150 from shoveling but that was the most I made...

 

[Mistwell]

Transformers shows growth. If you are a stock holder, or even listened to the meeting, you should have caught that.

I've read and listened to it all, and I am saying you're wrong. I think you misheard it. It shrank. But more importantly, it's not relevant to this conversation unless you think the Transformers brand brought in more revenue than the WOTC brand. Unless you think that, this is just a meaningless non-sequitur and I think I won't be responding to it anymore until you can show me why it would be meaningful for the things we're discussing.

This is a non-movie year for Transformers, which is why I expect (IMO on this one) next year the Transformers brand will do even better.

And I understand that's your opinion, and it's irrelevant to what we're talking about. Nobody asked what they think will happen next year in their personal opinions, we were discussing what we already know.

You ONLY posted a part of the gaming, and it wasn't that explicite.

It's in the report for the year, and it's not just the gaming part, and I referred to the whole report. The whole report shows gaming is now the largest revenue of the four sections. Are you disputing this? If not, why do you keep bringing it up as if there is a dispute there?

Here, let me open it up for you, you posted an OLD graph when you posted information. Gaming WAS a large division, making up ~1.3 Billion in Sales. WotC does not quite equal HALF of that, which if you extrapolate means WotC is doing well with sales with MtG as the most notable portion of that. WotC does NOT equal a majority really, even if it is a major portion of that.

Again, I never said majority. I said WOTC is the largest part of gaming. Of the various parts that make up gaming, WOTC is the biggest. I am not sure why I have to keep re-phrasing this sentence to say the same thing in a different way, but you're getting on my nerves with this strawmanning. Nothing in Gaming is a majority, and no section of Hasbro is a majority. But there is a plurality of Hasbro between the four (Gaming), and there is a plurality of Gaming (WOTC). What is unclear about that, that you keep using the word majority?

Boys Toys, normally does better then gaming, fell, to ~1.2 Billion. This means that while gaming grew by about 200 million, Boys Toys fell around 400 million, with notable falls in Marvel and other licensees. Despite that Transformers as a brand grew.

Transformers didn't grow, but I am not sure why you are so focused on this point. Who cares? Why is it relevant to this conversation? Regardless, Boys Toys is no longer better than Gaming in terms of revenue, and we both seem to agree on that point, so lets move on.

Let's not mince words and try to cast allusions which are not there.

Yes LETS DO THAT. PLEASE.

I'd say it's better to be open and frank. You are alluding that MtG and WotC is the biggest name out there...but to tell the truth, boys toys IS bigger than WotC currently. WotC is a major brand for Hasbro, have no doubts...but better then Boys Toys?

Wait, you JUST said lets not mince words, and then you did just that.

Boys Toys is not a brand, it's a section of Hasbro composed of various brands.

WOTC is a brand, a part of a section of Hasbro (Gaming).

So, if we're not mincing words, you'd be comparing the plurality brand of Boys Toys against the plurality brand of Gaming (which is WOTC), and then you'd have an apples to apples comparison.

Or, you'd compare Boys Toys (a section) to Gaming (a section) and that would be apples to apples comparison.

But Boys Toys to WOTC is not an apples to apples comparison. It is, however, mincing words. Marvel toys to WOTC would make sense. Transformers toys to WOTC would make sense. My Little Pony to WOTC would make sense.

Boys Toys saw a dramatic decrease, but WotC did not come close to making anywhere close to boys toys.

Yeah that's because one is a section and the other is a brand within a section and you're comparing two different things.

Of the Brands within Hasbro, I think WOTC brings in the most revenue. If you can name a brand in Hasbro that brings in more revenue (and 'Boys Toys' isn't a brand, but Marvel is a brand within 'Boys Toys').

 

[Derren]

Yeah Snow White is totally not traditional fantasy.

You're kinda moving the goalposts eh?

Looks like someone is crafting strawmans again. What has Snow White to do with a Dark Fantasy adaption of a Disney adaption of a Grimm fairy tale and why would that be considered as traditional as the original?

I understand that you, for some reason, want to believe that a D&D movie would be a smashing hit. But fact is that a Grimm fairy tale, or rather its twisted Hollywood interpretation from the viewpoint of the evil side which only mildly, if at all, has any connection to the original story is not "traditional fantasy", especially when talking about D&D which has much more in common with old epics than fairy tales.

 

[TwoSix]

Looks like someone is crafting strawmans again.

I understand that you, for some reason, want to believe that a D&D movie would be a smashing hit. But fact is that a Grimm fairy tale, or rather its twisted Hollywood interpretation from the viewpoint of the evil side which only mildly, if at all, has any connection to the original story is not "traditional fantasy", especially when talking about D&D which has much more in common with old epics than fairy tales.

Without definitions, assigning anything as "traditional fantasy" is fairly difficult. My own gut says that Grimm's Fairy Tales is a central enough part of the Western literary canon to be called "traditional" fantasy.

I do also think that while a D&D movie could be made profitably, I doubt one could be made that would be a zeitgeist-affecting hit.

 

[Derren]

Without definitions, assigning anything as "traditional fantasy" is fairly difficult. My own gut says that Grimm's Fairy Tales is a central enough part of the Western literary canon to be called "traditional" fantasy.

I do also think that while a D&D movie could be made profitably, I doubt one could be made that would be a zeitgeist-affecting hit.

Considering that the written down version of those fairy tales by Grimm are only about 200 years old I don't think they are as central to western Europe as things like the Nibelungen, Beowulf, Arthur or even Herakles are.
And don't forget that what comes into cinema this year is not even the Grimm version but the 50 year old Disney version which was mainly aimed at children and then got adapted again for a dark fantasy movie. That thing is about as traditional as that Snow White movie from 2012 is.