D&D 5E Why I Think D&DN is In Trouble

I think the primary reason you're seeing a Transformers movie now is because the CGI tech is only recently available. If they could have produced one in the 80s or 90s, it would have been jumped on.
The same could be said of many things, including D&D. It's real hard to do a dragon without good CGI (not that it hasn't been tried). The level of technology and the relative popularity of fantasy fiction at the moment would seem to be an ideal situation for D&D to become a movie, TV show, or the like.
 

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The point I was making is that transformers, before these movies, were an '80's fad that had basically been forgotten. I can't imagine that the material had higher brand recognition than D&D at the time they were pitched, or that they were in any way more appealing to a movie studio.

I certainly can imagine that. A highly successful brand getting reintroduced a generation later and riding both a wave of nostalgia and CGI movie-making? Given the number of remakes and reintroductions we get from Hollywood, I get the impression movie studios have people just sitting around waiting for projects like these to come up.
 

Further, as far as I know, the Transformers cartoon was wildly successful and had a very long running (as cartoons go). The cartoon movie moved a lot of units. The franchise continued to support multiple evolving lines of toys (and still does to this age). I know you were born after this period and I think your exposure is showing here. I don't think you can compare D&D as a mainstream phenomenon (for that age group) to Transformers in the slightest.
Most men I know in their 30s were Transformers fans, I remember it being a very big deal in 2nd and 3rd grade. (Which would be 1985-1987). It wasn't a long term fad, but it made a big impression on that particular age group.

The Transformers cartoon kind of bombed, actually, so I wouldn't hold that up as evidence of the overall popularity of Transformers.
 

The same could be said of many things, including D&D. It's real hard to do a dragon without good CGI (not that it hasn't been tried). The level of technology and the relative popularity of fantasy fiction at the moment would seem to be an ideal situation for D&D to become a movie, TV show, or the like.

I think D&D has another barrier that has only recently been breached with the successful ventures of LotR and GoT: The perception that the High Fantasy genre is toxic by Hollywood studios and production elites.
 

The exact same thing is true of G.I. Joe, another '80's toy fad that apparently had a mythology that you had to be there for. And is now making profitable, crappy movies. There are a lot of niche franchises that seem to be doing that.

To me, it seems that pop culture tends to be very cyclic.

The marketing of certain properties is definitely cyclic. Generational, I might say. How many of us remember GI Joe from the 1960s? His bristly-head in the early 1970s? Then Eagle-Eye GI Joe in the later 1970s? The smaller but more varied toys and cartoons of the 1980s? At least the reintroduction of GI Joe has slowed down to be closer to generation rather than by partial decade.
 

Most men I know in their 30s were Transformers fans, I remember it being a very big deal in 2nd and 3rd grade. (Which would be 1985-1987). It wasn't a long term fad, but it made a big impression on that particular age group.

Yeah, same here.

The Transformers cartoon kind of bombed, actually, so I wouldn't hold that up as evidence of the overall popularity of Transformers.

Really? Hmmm...I guess when compared with TMNT (10 seasons), all of the 80s cartoons bombed. That is an extremely high bar to set.

GI Joe and Thundercats each did 4 (as Transformers). Both He Man and Voltron only got 2 in the states (but appears to have done exceedingly well in Japan) but both had over 100 episodes.
 

Most men I know in their 30s were Transformers fans, I remember it being a very big deal in 2nd and 3rd grade. (Which would be 1985-1987). It wasn't a long term fad, but it made a big impression on that particular age group.

The Transformers cartoon kind of bombed, actually, so I wouldn't hold that up as evidence of the overall popularity of Transformers.

<tangent>

Stop reminding me how old I am. I was in my first year of the military in 87! (23 years old).


Actually it is fun to watch y'all discuss the coming and going of fads and to have actually been enough of a geek to seen and enjoyed it myself, even if I wasn't a 2nd grade boy at the time.

Press on!

</tangent>
 


Really? Hmmm...I guess when compared with TMNT (10 seasons), all of the 80s cartoons bombed. That is an extremely high bar to set.

GI Joe and Thundercats each did 4 (as Transformers). Both He Man and Voltron only got 2 in the states (but appears to have done exceedingly well in Japan) but both had over 100 episodes.
Ack. Sorry, I meant the cartoon MOVIE. (Dropped a highly relevant word there.)

No, the Transformers cartoon itself did fine.
 

The problem I've seen with the D&D brand is how to effectively monetize whatever level of name recognition there might be. There hasn't been any major new authors or characters in the novel line since they picked it up; it's still mostly Drizzt, Salvatore, Greenwood, and other stalwarts from pre WotC days that have stuck around. While this isn't necessarily bad, it's not necessarily good for the long term growth and viability; the line will need new blood at some point to sustain itself if they want the larger brand and not the author to remain the major selling point. The last majorly successful computer game was Neverwinter Nights, the single player game, and it's sequel; DDO and NWO haven't been failures, but they haven't been spectacular successes either. The board games are largely in the same scenario; they are doing well, but both the D&D boardgames and increasingly Hasbro in general is getting drowned out by all the other board game producers out there. The minis line has all but died out, though not entirely. Let's not even talk about the attempts to get into the movie business so far. Even in regards to the core game itself, 4E largely failed to capitalize on the wealth of worlds and lore built up by earlier editions.

In short, the brand may be recognizable to a significant extent of the general public, not a small feat for a niche game, but it's been stagnant for quite a while now in terms of actual development or usage of that name recognition, and it's going to take significant resources to jump start pretty much all of the above. Even the core game is no longer a product they can simply put out there and expect to sustain itself without ongoing marketing support, not with Pathfinder gaining just as much visibility in the core market and a growing visibility in the general market, not to mention all the other options easily found by anyone who does even a half hearted search for alternatives. If WotC is willing to invest in the not just the initial release of the new edition, but long term, on-going, active support of the brand, they can still capitalize on what they are sitting on, but continued stagnation, or even perceived stagnation, of the brand like we've seen since the late 3.5 period, which is what is likely to happen if Next cannot sustain a high level of interest, will cause a considerable amount of harm to the capabilities of both WotC and Hasbro to utilize the name recognition anytime in the near future, meaning that both of them may well agree that the best thing to do is simply shelve it for a while and see what happens 10, 15 years down the road like they did with Transformers, letting the existing novel lines and computer games to continue as long as the authors and developer companies are willing to sustain them, but not putting out much of anything new. That means a lot is still riding on Next; it may not be the last line of defense before complete failure, but given the decline of Hasbro in it's traditional markets, and WotC's notable lack of new product lines and brands themselves, a continued stagnation of the D&D brand is going to become more and more noticeable to both Hasbro and WotC, something that most certainly cannot aid the brand any.

Another point to consider is that while Transformers may not have been a consistently big deal since the 80's, even in the late 90's, they were still making new Transformer cartoons that got noticed well enough to justify their existence. For D&D to survive in a similar fashion, WotC has to find a way to ensure that at least some notable new content is being put out on a fairly regular basis, and expecting decade old authors and characters to carry the brand is not going to be enough; a fair number of those fans already probably identify more with the author or character than they do the brand at this point, and that number will only grow if the novels are the only notably successful product line. Next doesn't have to do 3.x well in terms of sales and sustainment, but it certainly has to do a lot better than 4E did in order to provide the necessary basis for even a successful hibernation period of sorts to occur.
 

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