Badwe
First Post
The biggest complaint I have about WotC pubished adventures is that they tend to write encounter for level X and use monsters of level X+3. This is what I find as the cause of the worst of the almost hit / missed by 1 type problems.
this isn't as big of a deal as you might think, so long as you don't go too far out. The math behind monster values is that a monster of level n+4 is worth twice the XP as a monster level n, in fact the same amount of XP as an elite of level n. if you're using something like an n+3 monster for a level n encounter you are using close to (dependant on level) 2/5th's of the encounter's XP budget.
for simpler math let's use the level n+4 example, along with brutes (the most notorious offenders of "grind" along with soldiers)
a level n+4 brute will be equivalent to 2 level n brutes in terms of XP cost. Brutes have HP equal to 26+10.5*level (10 at odd levels, 11 at even), and their AC is equal to 12+level (you can pick any defense you want, the importance is the relative difference).
so the total HP will be 26+10.5*(n+4) vs. 2*(26+10.5*n) or 68+10.5n vs. 52+21*n, so the net difference will be 10.5n - 16, which is to say that at level 1 the big monster will have more total HP and thereafter the two smaller monsters will have more total HP, in fact there will be a greater deficit the higher level N is.
next compare AC. the base assumption is that, on average, you'll hit something of your level on a roll of 10 or better. for brutes this is a bit lower, especially vs. AC. a level 1 character will likely have at least +3 to their hit stat and at least +2 from their weapon, so they'll be hitting AC 13 on an 8 or better, and someone with 18 and a longsword will hit on a 6 or better, but let's assume 8. this means 12/20 or 60% of their swings will hit, and the accurate hitter will net a 70% hit rate. go up for levels and you essentially lose 20%, so 40% and 50% respectively. if you can achieve combat advantage or get a temporary hit buff, you could quickly propel these chances higher.
alright, so what does the percentage mean? flatly you'll do less damage on average. it won't seem like this in the thick of the battle because you'll have anamolous high and low rolls as well as streaks of such rolls, but that's the average. to take our examples thus far, let's say our 60%/40% chance hitter is wielding a battleaxe, d10+3 (remember the hit mod?) or an average of 8.5, so he'll average 5.1 damage to the 2 brutes every round and 3.4 to the bigger monster. this is just an at-will attack. so if you do the math it turns out it takes more rounds to whittle that big monster down until about level 9 or 10, at which point the HP growth of the two small monsters outpaces the lost chance to hit on the big guy. at level 1 the difference is greatest: roughly 9 rounds (or less than 2 rounds of an entire 5 party team hitting with just at-wills), shrinking from there.
Those are all averages of course. Your encounter and daily powers do many rounds worth of at-will damage, and missing with one of those will cost you not just the round but the use of the ability. moreover, having a really good chance to hit is often incentive to use a daily or encounter to try and finish the job sooner, whereas you might hold such powers when you're having trouble hitting a big monster, and of course missing with a daily on an enemy who's already hard to hit is going to create a bigger impression than getting lucky with the daily and doing massive damage. similarly, you generally avoid using too high of levels because eventually it becomes nearly impossible to hit a particular enemy.
===end mathification===
ok, so that whole calculation aside, i don't have this problem with my combats in the least. my players are not completely power gamers except for one, but early on i impressed upon them that your +hit stat was important because in 4e hitting = doing things. it's easy for a player of older editions to assume that an 18 in any stat is an anomoly and a sign of a munchkin and go as low as 16 or even 14 before racial bonuses in their hit stat, then similarly pick an inaccurate weapon like an axe, or be a spellcaster who is slightly behind the curve _JUST_ for lower levels and become frustrated at the frequent missing. this is the 4th edition version of "weak low level players", you miss a lot more often because there's no way to send monsters lower than your level over. As early as 3 or 4 this is barely noticable and indeed by 6 and 7 it ceases to be a problem. I struggle to challenge my PCs because they so handily crush my monsters. I am running H2 as-is and they are slaughtering everything that gets in their way, often ending even tough combats in no more than 5 rounds.