Grog said:
Sorry, I thought you were talking about 3E there. I can speak with some certainty on that subject, having played it for eight years
So what is the fatality % for a CR encounter that matches the party level? Do you think this is universal across all, or even most, of people's DnD games. Do you think there is a chance that your games, for some reason, are more deadly than average?
Grog said:
I don't have the "three boring encounters" problem that Wyatt was talking about. I understand that other people do, but that hasn't been my experience in my games.
Well, if you understand that other people do then perhaps you'd understand if we can't really make a universal statement about what kind of death rate exists in 3E. I can follow the reasoning given various initial conditions, but IMO it's not productive to challenge the initial conditions at arbitrary moments. Take anything I say that assumes that CR=Party Level is not a deadly encounter as applying to a game other than yours.
Grog said:
I do have the "15 minute adventuring day" problem that he talked about (IME it's more like an hour or two, but close enough).
Given that your CR=Party Level encounters seem to have a high fatality rate (in that they are never boring even when the party is at full resources) then I would think it's pretty logical that you'd have the 15 minute adventuring problem. I think Wyatt talked about a very similar situation, only his example suggested that the EL would be higher than PC level, but otherwise the effect is the same.
Grog said:
Anyway, if you agree that there is a significant chance of PC death in many 3E encounters, I don't understand how you can level that as a criticism against your proposed model of how 4E is going to work.
I can only agree for your game. This isn't the case in mine, and not apparently in Wyatts. It doesn't invalidate what I'm saying because ultimately IMO this aspect of 3E doesn't have a bearing on what I'm saying - or it certainly doesn't discount it.
Here's how the logic works AFAICT: as it currently stands your players in your game are facing one tough encounter, which you tell me poses to them a significant risk of dying. All other things being held equal, by increasing the numbers of such encounters they face, you are increasing, significantly, the chance that they will actually die on any given day. Either redefine the probability of death (through action points, for example), or use DM cheating, or expect a high turn-over rate in the party. Those are the possibilities I can think of. This is a specific case among the more general cases because of your particular circumstances.
Grog said:
Or, you know, you're talking to different people.
I've said things like "if you send an ancient dragon against a 1st level PC, the PCs will die" and the response I often get is "no! you're wrong because I don't use dragons in my world."
People don't understand well what I mean when I say *if*. If what I'm saying fails to match your circumstances in it's premise, then it is irrelevant to your particular game. However it doesn't mean that the reasoning is invalid. At times perhaps it is hard to keep restating premises, and perhaps there has been some confusion there.