Thanks, MerricB!
I must admit, those figures don't pop right into my head as an intuitive assessment.
(The replacement of everything from 2 failures through 6 with 3 does not appear in the third consolidated errata, issued two months after the DMG, either, so I infer that there is at least a fourth.)
Good inference.

Skill challenges are wacky. The maths behind them is odd, to say the least, and although I give figures up to 90% there, I have often found that the actual percentage chance of a character who is using the right skill is... 100%
Skill challenges really don't work when you just sit down and roll dice. I'm negotiating with the Duke. +10 on my Diplomacy checks, I need a 12. Need 6 successes before 3 failures. Roll. Roll. Roll. Roll. Roll. Roll. Done! Dull as dishwater.
The skill challenges I've seen *work* impose more structure onto the system. Take this one, from the recent D&D Encounters series: the idea is you're travelling through Undermountain, following a map, trying to get to a particular spot. Instead of mapping out and having lots of encounters in Undermountain, the travel is done via skill challenge:
* One character makes a Dungeoneering check to interpret the map.
* Regardless of the success of that, they find themselves with a really tough encounter (which as 1st level PCs, they really won't be able to take). They can sneak by it (group Stealth) or have one person distract it then run (Endurance). Or maybe it is a trap, where someone has to disarm it (Thievery). Failure brings loss of surges, etc.
* Repeat until 6 successes are achieved, or the group fail three times (in which case they get beaten up a lot before they achieve their goal).
* If the group is really lost with Dungeoneering, then they can ask someone (or something) using Streetwise or Intimidate to get back onto track.
It's a nice way of abstracting away something that otherwise could take a very long time. No, not sandbox, but really good skill challenges allow for some interesting play.
The question is this: what do skill challenges reward?
* Good skill selection during character creation
* Good choices of which skill/tactic to try next during the challenge
Getting the latter to apply is hard work; it's very easy to just say "roll this, this and this and you're done". It's much better when the players have to think about what they're doing. Unfortunately, the role of the actual skill numbers in skill challenges tend to be a bit binary. If you have the skill, it's rarely a problem. If you don't have the skill, you have a problem. The interesting choice is more "Do I use Bluff or Intimidate?" when you have both...
Against these "level appropriate" skill challenges, 4e retains a few "level independent" skill rolls, such as the Athletic check needed to jump something. I'd be happier if it had a few more of these; especially as the skill check target numbers should be harder than the skill challenge numbers!
Cheers!