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Why Orcs beat Elves


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"The time of the Elves is over, my people are leaving these shores."

It's odd that so many settings place the elves as a dying people, gradually being driven to extinction or leaving the realm. Almost like they'd foreseen this...
 

Anyway, surely he's wrong? Wouldn't the introduction of the competing species serve to 'prune' the genes of the immortal species, at which point it becomes a question of birth-rates and ability to adapt.

In other words, I don't think it's immortality at all that's the issue; it's the ability of the race to adapt to environmental pressures. Just the same as it is for mortal species, in fact.
 

Anyway, surely he's wrong? Wouldn't the introduction of the competing species serve to 'prune' the genes of the immortal species, at which point it becomes a question of birth-rates and ability to adapt.

It would happen a lot more slowly though; valuable new alleles wouldn't spread back from the frontier (where competition is occurring) into the heartland, because the heartland would be full of earlier generations already. By the time you're losing huge swathes of your heartland population to competition it may be too late; like the Vadhagh defeat by the Mabden at the start of Moorcock's 'Swords' trilogy.
 

That article contains what I think is a major inaccuracy, or at least a vast oversimplification:

'Current thinking suggest death did not evolve,' says Bryan Appleyard, author of How to Live Forever - or Die Trying, 'Evolution is only concerned with getting us to reproduce. Our genes are very protective of us up to, say, our mid-twenties, after that, they don't care what happens to us so we slide downhill.'

I've read a lot lately where folks are thinking that aging and death *did* evolve - and, in fact, it kind of had to, as our single-celled ancestors don't die from aging.

In addition, there is very solid evidence that, for any species that learns very complex behaviors (like, say, humans) having older individuals around as repositories of knowledge is a hefty competitive advantage - having grandma and grandpa around to watch the kids and teach them skills is a big deal. So much for nature not caring if we live a long time.

Setting those aside, though....

It would happen a lot more slowly though

Maybe, or maybe not. It depends on his assumptions, which we don't know. Perhaps most importantly, the birth rate.

Critters die for a variety of reasons, of which old age is only one. There's disease, accident, predation, lack of resources (like food), and so on. In general, immortal or not, if your birth rate exceeds your death rate, your population grows. Now, if you're immortal, only one of the elements in the death rate is removed. If the creatures die more often from predation, accident, or disease, however, that's not a major issue.

If your population grows too high, you run out of resources, and your population drops, sometimes outright crashes, until it is down at the level where resources can sustain you again. Or, some other factor in the environment moves to even things out - immortal bunnies might just mean a higher population of predators. Or maybe the creatures have a tendency to war amongst themselves, or, or, or....

We must remember that while Nature has provided us with one particular scenario that yields the desired mixing, that's probably not the only one possible. Just because we do it this way, doesn't mean it is the only way (or even the most stable way) for it to happen.

The problem with computer simulations is that they only provide scenarios the programmer considers beforehand. Nature, on the other hand, over the course of many generations randomly explores the space of possible behaviors, limited only by actual physical law. No simulation does that.

valuable new alleles wouldn't spread back from the frontier (where competition is occurring) into the heartland, because the heartland would be full of earlier generations already.

For example: that's assuming the critters tend to stay put. If they're migratory or wandering (like birds, or bovine herbivores, or elephants), that assumption goes out the window.

Beware your assumptions!
 

New article on finding that immortality can actually be a disadvantage:

Computer model predicts human 'immortality' might actually be BAD for us | Mail Online

well, by the time elves reach their age of maturity - what is it now, 100? - the orcs will have had 8-9 generations of breeding. It's simple math that orcs will win over time.

So, by the time elf mommy and elf daddy have elf baby #1, the orc mommy from 100 years ago maybe had 8-10 orc babies. Say half made it to breeding age due to violence/war/survival of the fittest, so 4-5. Let's conservatively say 4. If things go similarly for each generation , those 4 orcs will each produce 4 more that reach breeding age.

4x4, or 16 orcs after 22 years
16x4, or 64 orcs after 33 years
64x4, or 256 orcs after 44 years
256x4, or 1012 orcs after 55 years
1012x4, or 4048 orcs after 66 years
4048x4, or 16,000+ orcs over 77 years
16,000+ x4, or 64,000 orcs over 88 years
64,000x4, or 256,000 orcs over 99 years when the baby elf reaches maturity a year later.
 


Doesn't 4E have the elves maturing at about the same age as humans, but then staying that young-looking for decades? (Not near my books, so I can't check.)

I would think that diet would have a more significant impact:
Orcs will eat about anything, and don't worry about devastating the landscape to the point that it becomes unable to support them; they'll just move elsewhere.
Elves, though, keep a keen eye on resources, and try to keep their lands capable of sustaining their populations.
At that rate, the orcs will deplete their surroundings, then go invade the elves for food.

[In Tolkien, the orcs were always said to outnumber the elves; but the Noldor "swiftly achieved victory" anyway.]
 

I think that the experiment neglects to consider the fact that once humanity is capable of achieving immortality, we will have reached a point where our evolution will most likely be conscious and directed. Essentially, once we're able to turn off the "death gene", we'll be at a point where we don't need nature to do our "pruning" for us; we should be capable of doing so ourselves.

Is a new strain H1N1 (or H1N5) threatening to destroy humanity? Create a retrovirus that renders people immune, or update the programming of the nanomachines supplementing/replacing our immune systems to recognize and eliminate this new threat.

Has a giant rock from the heavens struck the earth and brought about a new ice age? Alter people so that their blood acts as anti-freeze and give them the capacity to hibernate for long periods at a time. You can always change them back once the Ice Age has passed...

That isn't to say that immortality doesn't have it's potential pitfalls (overcrowding, ennui, etc.) but so long as the capacity to continue altering ourselves in the face of future challenges remains intact, I don't see short-cutting evolution as one of them per se. The only scenario where I could see it being an issue is if society were to collapse and that knowledge lost; in that case adaptability could indeed become a very real and present concern.

I think this trans-human concept could be quite interesting in a fantasy setting. One take on elves is that they are an old and highly magical race, but because of their long life spans can be slow to accept change. Imagine if elves are slowly being pushed out by the younger races. Many of the youngest (and therefore least staid) elves seek to alter the essence of the elven race via magics, but the elders who control these magics are quite resistant to the idea. They would rather remain true to what they are and chance extinction, than to be reborn as a new race of elves and survive. At the very least, it strikes me as a potentially intriguing take on elves within the scope of a campaign world...
 

well, by the time elves reach their age of maturity - what is it now, 100? - the orcs will have had 8-9 generations of breeding. It's simple math that orcs will win over time.

Note how this has nothing to do with how long elves live, but how quickly they mature and breed. If your elves live forever, but have full mental and physical faculties and can have children at age 18, that advantage goes away.

Did anyone else read the thread title as "Why Orcas beat Elves"? ;)

What was that? "Why Orcus beat Elvis?" Huh? :p
 

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