For the casual gamer . . .
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So, do you think that the "casual" players might ever come back? Do you think that "casual" players are a drag on games, and things are better without them? Or do you think I'm wrong, and D&D never lost its "casual" players
I voted "disagree with the premise" -- but I meant to disagree that the casual players are the "base" of the player population. I don't think they are the base, despite the assumption in the title of this thread.
However, let's throw a bone to the casual players anyway: D&D needs some kind of Basic Set that can be played over and over again, so the casual players can stay casual if that is what they really want most of all. (Though their desires might change over time as they become more accustomed to the game.)
In one of the earlier "5th Edition" threads, I suggested some
criteria for a possible Basic Set (see link for details). It still seems much more plausible to me that a Basic Set, with flat, painted (or stamped) plastic tokens* that are as generic (non-representative-of-individual-PCs) as the Monopoly tokens, and containing character generation rules for 5 races, 5 classes, and 5 levels of play, with a highly-replayable encounter-generator or campaign-generator, and sufficient rules to play by forever, would be more likely to become an "everybody has it" sort of game that the big-box stores might consider stocking. (Even for 4th Edition, if WotC wants to go that way.)
What connection does this suggestion have to the casual gamers? This: the cited period in the early 1980's did, in fact, have such a boxed Basic Set available, and people could buy it. Currently, such is not available for 4th Edition, so people cannot buy it.
* [footnote] The solid, 3D tokens included in the "Fantasy Adventure Board Game" released in the UK were far too heavy to be suitable. Semi-representational, at most, is the way to go.