Will Essentials do well?

[Jhaelen]

The more I read on the internet, it seems 4ee won't catch on.

According to the internet _nothing_ will _ever_ catch on and nothing _has_ ever cought on (this is one of those occasions I miss an *eyeroll* emote).

I have no idea if Essentials will catch on, but I have the impression that 4e is doing as well as can be expected by a new edition, i.e. some people continued playing the old edition and some switched to other systems.

What I see as a stumbling block for 4e in Germany is the lack of a German publisher. But that has little effect on 4e's overall success.

 

[AllisterH]

It really depends on WHERE on the internet you look

(*moseys over the penny arcade forums which in all respects DWARF enworld+rpg.net combined*)

 

[Jeremy Ackerman-Yost]

But these 2 statements seem to be at odds with each other: why would people who dislike the fundaments of 4Ed want to try Essentials when those fundaments remain unchanged?

Depends on what you mean by "fundamentals." For some people, that means core game mechanics. For others it means an assortment of thematic elements that they choose and express variously.

Some people have a fundamental disagreement with the way 4e works as a system, sure. But there are a lot of people who don't seem to have a problem with the core system, but really, really hate some thematic, even semantic things. Or they like 4e just fine for some classes, but don't like the way it approaches others. A lot of those things seem to be changing.

They're not big changes at all, IMO. But about 20% on either end are approaching them as if they were paradigm shifts of epic proportion. The 60% in the middle abide, as usual.

 

[MrMyth]

But these 2 statements seem to be at odds with each other: why would people who dislike the fundaments of 4Ed want to try Essentials when those fundaments remain unchanged?

Well, one big thing I think it has focused on is presentation. The mechanics of the system could stay the same, but if they do so while providing a build that has more of a 'classic feel' to it, that can draw in those turned off by the PHB classes without disrupting the system.

For myself, I expect:

1) It will sell well.
2) Not as well as WotC would like, especially some of the tangential parts of Essentials.
3) It will draw in new gamers, thus providing a huge benefit to the hobby in the long run.
4) It will draw in some lapsed gamers who enjoy the classic element, but sell primarily to current 4E gamers who want the new options and the classic feel.

All entirely speculation, of course, but that's my bet.

 

[Wormwood]

Three previews were sufficient to make me want to buy Essentials.

The fourth preview made me want to make our next game Essentials ONLY.

 

[WheresMyD20]

The fourth preview made me want to make our next game Essentials ONLY.

This is interesting. I wonder how many 4e players will go "Essentials only" when Essentials comes out.

If this becomes a wide-spread attitude, then does that make the pre-Essentials books effectively obsolete?

Remember when the 3.5 core rules got released? WotC swore that the new core rulebooks didn't make the pre-3.5 books like MM2 obsolete.

Sales figures proved otherwise. The D&D community treated 3.5 like a full new edition and sales of pre-3.5 books plummeted.

Is the same thing going to happen with Essentials? How many game groups are going to ban, or at least stigmatize, pre-Essentials 4e books? WotC marketing may want the pre-Essentials 4e books to remain relevant, but will game groups agree? Will "Essentials only" became the default play style? Will it become a defacto new edition, regardless of what WotC wants or says?

I don't know the answers, but I'm interested to see what happens...

 

[Hussar]

I don't think you'll see quite the same reaction to pre-Essentials books as you did for 3e-3.5, for two reasons. One, the mechanical differences between the two, so far, look far less than the mechanical differences between 3e and 3.5. But, the second reason is far stronger, IMO: The DDI. The core books, unless they're somehow stripped from the DDI, will still be easily available and all elements will have to co-exist with what came before.

While an Essentials fighter might be different from a PHB 1 fighter, they won't be different in terms of mechanical balance, which is generally why you saw people dropping 3e stuff.

 

[Terramotus]

"Well" depends on WotC's definition of it. As someone who doesn't really believe the "it's not 4.5" boilerplate, I think that what they're hoping is that it will do 4E core books sales + additional sales from new players and lapsed players. If it doesn't anywhere close to that area, we'll probably see 4.0 quietly forgotten in the product catalog and most new products being Essentials supplements.

As a starter edition of the game, it looks pretty good. I know a group of people from work that never gamed before and jumped in with 4E. It should do well in that niche, I think. If it does good sales at places like Barnes and Noble and Toys R Us, it could stay as an evergreen book in that category.

Unfortunately, I think that Essentials is an attempt at a a stealth 4.5. It allows WotC to have their cake and eat it too. If it succeeds like a 4.5, then they just keep pumping out Essentials stuff. If it doesn't, it's completely deniable.

My opinion: it won't sell like a 4.5, and will probably sit in places like Barnes and Noble or Toys R Us until stock of the first printing runs out, and that'll be it. It'll get killed if it doesn't sell like a new edition, regardless of whether it works as a starter product, due to it not living up to internal expectations.

Three previews were sufficient to make me want to buy Essentials.

The fourth preview made me want to make our next game Essentials ONLY.

You know, it's funny how much people's preferences differ. (Seriously! I'm not trying to make a dig at you!) I've felt the previews were, in general, inadequate to get a good feel for what the classes were like due to not knowing what all those class abilities were. A first three levels type preview is much better. But from what I have seen, every preview has made me like it less as an actual addition to 4E. After the rogue preview I officially banned it from my upcoming Dark Sun campaign.

 

[wedgeski]

"Well" depends on WotC's definition of it. As someone who doesn't really believe the "it's not 4.5" boilerplate, I think that what they're hoping is that it will do 4E core books sales + additional sales from new players and lapsed players. If it doesn't anywhere close to that area, we'll probably see 4.0 quietly forgotten in the product catalog and most new products being Essentials supplements.

I don't believe any sane stake-holder at WotC will expect 4E core+ sales on a product line introduced two years into the game.

 

[Grimstaff]

The more I read on the internet, it seems 4ee won't catch on. According to the non-4e players thread (which, yes, I know it's just an EnWorld poll and not conclusive), 3.5ers aren't interested, and it seems to be fracturing the 4e community. It's a system reboot 2 years after 4e, which has ALREADY fractured the community in two, and I daresay isn't selling as well as 3.5. 4ee does not strike me as different enough to succeed, and I doubt WotC will actually attempt to mainstream the hobby. Thoughts?

I don't think Essentials is interested in catching on with "the internet" or "3.5ers", or even rebooting the system. I think Essentials is more interested in providing an affordable and easy-to-learn entry point for new players - people who may have heard of "Dungeons and Dragons", but likely have little if any knowledge about "core books" or "splat books" or "DDI", "edition wars", "gaming forums" etc.

In other words, the other 99% of the population.