Will Essentials do well?

I've been talking about this with my gaming friends and they all seems excited about it's release. Personally, I can't wait and I think it'll do well enough.
 

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My best educated guess says "No." As I recall, few supplemental releases stand up to any game's initial release. If they're expecting Core 3 numbers, they're probably going to be disappointed.

OTOH, if they're expecting sales more akin to "DM Only" type supplements, they may just succeed far beyond their expectations.
The chance of them expecting Core 3 numbers is vanishingly small. No one knows better than they do how supplements sell compared to the initial release.
 

I have a few thoughts...

1. We (ENWorld types) are not the target audience of the essentials line, so our viewpoint of if it will do well won't be good unless you.

2. It's a complete game in a box, everything you need is in there. The instructions have you playing the game before you even have your character sheets made up. The only thing I think they should have included was a flip mat and a dry erase marker... but they want you to buy the dungeon tiles essentials (again in a box), hopefully on the shelf right next to the base game.

3. It's price point is very low for even a board game. I expect to see the red box on the shelves of Toys R Us and Target in time for the holidays.

4. It is expandable, so your initial investment isn't lost.

5. It's compatible, so all those adventures that are already published can be used with the game.

So yeah, I think it's going to do quite well, just not with people who already play RPGs. I think this is a great direction to go in to help grow the fanbase.
 

I have a few thoughts...

1. We (ENWorld types) are not the target audience of the essentials line, so our viewpoint of if it will do well won't be good unless you.

2. It's a complete game in a box, everything you need is in there. The instructions have you playing the game before you even have your character sheets made up. The only thing I think they should have included was a flip mat and a dry erase marker... but they want you to buy the dungeon tiles essentials (again in a box), hopefully on the shelf right next to the base game.

3. It's price point is very low for even a board game. I expect to see the red box on the shelves of Toys R Us and Target in time for the holidays.

4. It is expandable, so your initial investment isn't lost.

5. It's compatible, so all those adventures that are already published can be used with the game.

So yeah, I think it's going to do quite well, just not with people who already play RPGs. I think this is a great direction to go in to help grow the fanbase.
All of this.

The thing a few posters are missing is that this product is meant to continue in print throughout the life cycle of 4th Edition, which tells me that nobody will know how well Essentials did until after 5th Edition is announced, if it ever is.

If WotC sticks to their currently announced intention, sales levels won't make any difference to the availability of this product line: it's a Loss-Leader, not intended to be a significant profit center, but rather intended to be a get-to-know-and-love-the-game line instead. To the extent it accomplishes that, the profits of the other products that are later sold to people who are introduced to the game through Essentials will cover any earlier absence of earnings. (Of course I'm guessing here.)
 

What the Essentials game reminds me of is what you see in some realistic racing games like Forza 3.

For people who are experienced and like digging into the nuts and bolts, you can do so. However, for others who may not be as comfortable, or who simply don't care about the nuts and bolts, there is an option to have all of the nuts and bolts chosen for you.
 

Your facts are far from correct.
4. WotC continues to have the number 1 RPG out. I would daresay that 4e does outsell 3.5 (or Pathfinder if you prefer). It IS debateable whether it is as successful as WotC thought it would be. Without numbers everythign is just conjecture.

I have a feeling this is changing. If WOTCs own marketing charts are to be believed PF is gaining sales and 4e is declining (while still being way out in the lead at a 2:1 sales ratio aprox). The 4eE line should be a good shot in the arm and it competes directly with Dragon Age, which while not selling like D&D has been pretty hot for fans of the video game who have never played an RPG and can pick it up at B&N. I think your seeing WOTC struggling to stay on top right now and if a Twilight RPG broke you might even see them dip to #2.
 


I have a feeling this is changing. If WOTCs own marketing charts are to be believed PF is gaining sales and 4e is declining (while still being way out in the lead at a 2:1 sales ratio aprox). The 4eE line should be a good shot in the arm and it competes directly with Dragon Age, which while not selling like D&D has been pretty hot for fans of the video game who have never played an RPG and can pick it up at B&N. I think your seeing WOTC struggling to stay on top right now and if a Twilight RPG broke you might even see them dip to #2.
What? where are these marketing charts, WoTC one's you say?
 

I'm interested in the staying power of Essentials (and so, I think is WotC).

If the past two years have taught us anything, it's that the PHB didn't have much staying power. By the time the PHB 1+2 Gift Set was released, a common reaction was '... oh, you didn't include the latest errata in the PHB 1 printing... I won't buy it then'. The idea being that people are happy to buy stuff it it's completely up-to-date, and less happy to play an outdated product.

So it appears that the upcoming Rules Compendium is like a solid buy and everyone's next purchase.

Except then you realize that today's Rules Compendium is tomorrow's outdated PHB 1.

So the staying power of Essentials will depend substantially on WotC' forward going errata policy. If they release poorly playtested material in the Essentials "Heroes of..." books and have to re-write stuff from scratch again... then of course these books will have limited shelf life. If, on the other hand, they release poorly playtested material and just refuse to errata it then people might not be convinced by the quality of the material. So the only hopeful alternative is to think that the Essentials builds up to Heroes of Shadow and beyond got as much and as solid playtesting as did 4.0.

Well, if you're one of the 4.Essentials playtesters for the new classes, please raise your hand.
 
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