WotC With 5E now under Community Commons, WotC is now "just" another 5E publisher -- here's how they can still dominate

Whizbang Dustyboots

100% that gnome
I was listening to the Lazy RPG Podcast (@SlyFlourish's renamed Lazy DM Podcast) and Mike pointed out that, in light of 5E being added to Creative Commons, Wizards of the Coast is "just" another 5E publisher and will have to compete in the marketplace against other such publishers.

Obviously, this was effectively true before, but the changes in the licensing mean that a large portion of the competitive advantage WotC enjoyed is gone.

That said, they still have enormous advantages over other 5E publishers, which they should leverage, rather than their now-abandoned legalistic sneak attack.

1) They still own the brand "Dungeons & Dragons." While there's already plenty of other D&D-compatible stuff out there and likely a lot more to come after Friday's decision, the only company that can put the most famous name in the roleplaying game space on their products is Wizards of the Coast. I expect to see them leverage the brand like crazy, including in new cover treatments, potentially even for 5E books, that says that right up front. Instead of the "D&D Players Handbook" on the front cover of the 5E PHB, any reprints this year should probably say "Dungeons & Dragons Players Handbook," to make sure book store displays always show that brand to the customers. I expect the 1D&D cover treatment to do the same.

2) They almost certainly have the largest pot of money and probably the largest number of full-time employees. (And if they don't, I expect them to staff up accordingly.) That means producing more books at a higher level of polish is more achievable than it would be for a small company that will have to work much harder with freelancers (who, as a category, are more of a mixed bag than full-timers, since they have other demands on their attention.) I would expect to see products in future years than we see in 2023, which itself is a jump up from previous 5E production rates. They can also have a higher average quality of production quality, if they choose to. I don't expect it, but I would love to see WotC adopt what my favorite Kickstarter projects do, and add bound-in ribbon bookmarks, especially in the 2024 anniversary special edition books.

3) Only they can do Honor Among Thieves tie-in products. I've previously ranted about them not having any movie tie-in books or boxed sets scheduled. (If Golden Vault was a movie tie-in, they would have told retailers that, so they can order accordingly.) For whatever reason they chose not to do so before, I expect that -- unless they know that the movie is just god-awful -- there will be pressure to get some movie stuff added to the release schedule ASAP. They can get something turned around on D&D Beyond relatively quickly, with a print release after that, if it comes to it.

4) Leverage that IP! Not only does WotC have the sole rights to slap "Dungeons & Dragons" on their cover, they have the sole rights to the Forgotten Realms, the World of Greyhawk, Dark Sun and Gamma World. I think Friday's decision means they will be more likely to release these as products in the coming years, as player-facing splatbooks and bestiaries put them on the same playing fields with Kobold Press and the like, and they're not a playing field where they always win, to put it mildly. (And yeah, Gamma World can and should be a D&D setting. Most versions of the game, going back to the very beginning, have been fairly easy to combine with D&D, and creating a post-apocalyptic setting, possibly with more fantasy elements than previously, seems like a no-brainer product, either as a single book or as a slipcase set.)

5) They are the best-known company in the space. Next year, the natural tendency of the media will be to give a lot of attention to the company on its 50th anniversary. WotC should talk up D&D everywhere possible. They will likely try to make D&D synonymous with RPGs in the public's mind, even as everyone else in the RPG space tries to do the reverse. (Every gaming journalist in the world will get pitches of "here's 50 more RPGs to consider during D&D's 50th anniversary" and the like.)

And except for the last point, these are all good things. Out-compete everyone else by putting out more and better products! Use the brand and the movie to bring in more new and returning players, some of whom will spill over to a larger, more vibrant RPG scene than we had a month ago. WotC can remain dominant -- become even more dominant -- by being the company their biggest fans believe them to be. And producing a ton of great, hard to argue with books is also the best way to win back fans whom corporate shenanigans have driven away.
 

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Parmandur

Book-Friend
Leverage that IP! Not only does WotC have the sole rights to slap "Dungeons & Dragons" on their cover, they have the sole rights to the Forgotten Realms, the World of Greyhawk, Dark Sun and Gamma World. I think Friday's decision means they will be more likely to release these as products in the coming years, as player-facing splatbooks and bestiaries put them on the same playing fields with Kobold Press and the like, and they're not a playing field where they always win, to put it mildly. (And yeah, Gamma World can and should be a D&D setting. Most versions of the game, going back to the very beginning, have been fairly easy to combine with D&D, and creating a post-apocalyptic setting, possibly with more fantasy elements than previously, seems like a no-brainer product, either as a single book or as a slipcase set.)
To add to this, only WotC can out out Magic: the Gathering D&D products. And those apparently sell quote well.

A sixth point is that they still have D&D Beyond, which is a huge and well liked platform.
 

Whizbang Dustyboots

100% that gnome
Pretty sure they are going to move onto an new edition in a year.
They are going to have to make a lot of changes very, very fast to make it totally incompatible with 5E.

One of their stated goals for 1D&D was to not create a breakpoint where their new and larger than ever fanbase might say "hey, if the new version is so different from what we're using right now, why don't we see what else is out there?" That goal remains intact.

WotC will effectively be competing with Kobold Press, Monte Cook Games and everyone else producing 5E-compatible stuff in 2024 and beyond.

Now, I think it's possible that 7E will be so different as to break that compatibility, but that's likely a good ways off.
 
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Whizbang Dustyboots

100% that gnome
To add to this, only WotC can out out Magic: the Gathering D&D products. And those apparently sell quote well.

A sixth point is that they still have D&D Beyond, which is a huge and well liked platform.
Good point, I definitely should have mentioned MTG. There's a ton of settings out there, along with MTG-branded monster books and books of player-facing content they can release.

I think the new CC situation means that someone else could create a D&D Beyond-like system. Whether they have the resources to do so will be the bigger question.
 
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Parmandur

Book-Friend
They are going to have to make a lot of changes very, very fast to make it totally incompatible with 5E.

One of their stated goals for 1D&D was to not create a breakpoint where their new and larger than ever fanbase might say "hey, if the new version is do different from what we're using right now, why don't we see what else is out there." That goal remains intact.

WotC will effectively be competing with Kobold Press, Monte Cook Games and everyone else producing 5E-compatible stuff in 2024 and beyond.

Now, I think it's possible that 7E will be so different as to break that compatibility, but that's likely a good ways off.
I thinknthe people behind the CC move know about WotC old game theory models that suggest that competition in the gaming industry actually favors growth for the leader, doubley so with compatibility between products.

I think their idea is making 5E permanently open source was to encourage their competition to stay compatible with forthcoming OneD&D products.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
Good point, I definitely should have mentioned WotC. There's a ton of settings out there, along with MTG-branded monster books and books of player-facing content they can release.

I think the new CC situation means that someone else could create a D&D Beyond-like system. Whether they have the resources to do so will be the bigger question.
I mean, WptC paid over $150 million to acquire it, which gives an idea of the level of work a competitor may need to put in just to catch up to the features built over the past 6 years.
 

Reynard

Legend
I think that the brand is the value. They can -- and have -- completely change the rules and still be on top. 5E isn't magical. It's rules aren't why it is popular. 5E happened at the time that the nostalgia tsunami lifted D&D out of nerd obscurity.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
I think that the brand is the value. They can -- and have -- completely change the rules and still be on top. 5E isn't magical. It's rules aren't why it is popular. 5E happened at the time that the nostalgia tsunami lifted D&D out of nerd obscurity.
Well, one, we've gone around and around that on this forum without any decisive agreement as to what role the rules played in the success of 5E, though the general consensus seems to be "some effect."

Second, that only makes @Whizbang Dustyboots point stronger, because WotC D&D competing against Black Flag and C7d20 has a huge nostalgia advantage, and thr design team knows how to productize that.
 

Reynard

Legend
Second, that only makes @Whizbang Dustyboots point stronger, because WotC D&D competing against Black Flag and C7d20 has a huge nostalgia advantage, and thr design team knows how to productize that.
I think it undermines the basis of the thread: WotC is still the only D&D publisher and will be until such time as they sell it off. I don't think 5E rules on their own are enough to produce a significant challenge to D&D as a brand.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
I think it undermines the basis of the thread: WotC is still the only D&D publisher and will be until such time as they sell it off. I don't think 5E rules on their own are enough to produce a significant challenge to D&D as a brand.
No, thattrue: that's why they put it into Creative Commons. Ryan Dancey argued that 20 years ago fairly convincingly.
 

Jer

Legend
Supporter
I was listening to the Lazy RPG Podcast (@SlyFlourish's renamed Lazy DM Podcast) and Mike pointed out that, in light of 5E being added to Creative Commons, Wizards of the Coast is "just" another 5E publisher and will have to compete in the marketplace against other such publishers.

Obviously, this was effectively true before, but the changes in the licensing mean that a large portion of the competitive advantage WotC enjoyed is gone.
Can someone please explain to me how having the srd under a cc-by license makes things any different for Wizards from a competition angle than having it under the ogl did? I don't see it.

Putting things under a cc does remove the restrictions wizards had on pi from the ogl. But beyond that they're in the same position as before - the only source for officially branded Dungeons and Dragons content, the biggest company making ttrpg products, and the company every game store already deals with for Magic the Gathering.

So as far as I can tell nothing has really changed except the alienated some portion if their customer base for no reason. But I might be missing something so if anyone can tell me what that is I'd appreciate it.
 

Reynard

Legend
No, thattrue: that's why they put it into Creative Commons. Ryan Dancey argued that 20 years ago fairly convincingly.
Ryan Dancey put the SRD under the OGL 20 years ago because there was no creative commons at the time, and he wanted people to support D&D. That it would save D&D in case of bad management was also important, but the primary goal was to make people reach first for D&D because of network externalities. I don't see how using CC now changes that much. The actual "D&D-ness" of D&D isn't in the SRD.
 

Whizbang Dustyboots

100% that gnome
Can someone please explain to me how having the srd under a cc-by license makes things any different for Wizards from a competition angle than having it under the ogl did? I don't see it.
Because 5E will be the "current" edition as long as any publisher finds it profitable to produce new content for it. Previously, WotC had the power to change the conversation for everyone -- see the apocalypse that happened to 3E products when 3.5 was announced.
 

Reynard

Legend
Because 5E will be the "current" edition as long as any publisher finds it profitable to produce new content for it. Previously, WotC had the power to change the conversation for everyone -- see the apocalypse that happened to 3E products when 3.5 was announced.
People could have continued to support 3.0. The rules were out there. There could have been a 3.0 "Pathfinder." There wasn't. What is the current official supported edition of D&D is D&D. Even Pathfinder did not "eclipse" 4E as many like to claim around here -- although it got close sometimes. I think when 6E comes out the market for 5E-alikes is going to effectively disappear. The games that will survive will be the games that differentiate themselves.
 

overgeeked

B/X Known World
People could have continued to support 3.0. The rules were out there. There could have been a 3.0 "Pathfinder." There wasn't. What is the current official supported edition of D&D is D&D. Even Pathfinder did not "eclipse" 4E as many like to claim around here -- although it got close sometimes. I think when 6E comes out the market for 5E-alikes is going to effectively disappear. The games that will survive will be the games that differentiate themselves.
I'm not convinced. Only because of the tsunami of new players that came in with 5E. This is their first edition change. There are already a half-dozen 5E alternatives and with the 5.1 SRD being released under the CC-BY, there will be dozens more. And there's such a heap of material out there that most groups could run the game for several lifetimes and not run out of available material. There was a lot of 3X support at the time WotC switched to 4E. There are orders of magnitude more players and support now. This is the downside of 5E's success for WotC. It's even easier for people to stay with 5E. If 6E is nearly identical to 5E, then it will be trivial for people to bring in cool 6E stuff they like as house rules to 5E. Especially if WotC goes ahead with their "walled garden" of 6E and the VTT. You already have shelves filled with 5E books that you could play for the rest of your life...or you could scrap all that and drop $30/month for this new but somehow nearly identical thing. So why switch? Beyond fear of missing out.
 

Jer

Legend
Supporter
Because 5E will be the "current" edition as long as any publisher finds it profitable to produce new content for it. Previously, WotC had the power to change the conversation for everyone -- see the apocalypse that happened to 3E products when 3.5 was announced.
But that was already true under the OGL? Like, if Wizards went and released a new incompatible edition tomorrow and we were still where we were in November (i.e. SRD under the OGL, no claim that the OGL was able to be revoked or deauthorized), then people could still release 5e stuff. And 3e stuff.

But also - Wizards STILL has the power to change the conversation for everyone in the same way they did a month ago before this all happened. The CC-BY license doesn't change the fact that they own the brand Dungeons and Dragons and to a large degree they get to define what D&D is as far as what gets sold with the D&D logo on it. I personally don't think they will for "OneD&D/6e" or whatever it ends up being because we're far too late to make radical changes and get it out the door for the 50th anniversary next year (and rushing 4e out the door before it was done was one of the many mistakes made around 4th edition. I would hope they learned at least one lesson from their bumbling around 4e, even if they didn't seem to learn the "don't make the community mad because you need them to buy your stuff" lesson).

But 5 years from now they could release TwoD&D and have it be completely incompatible with 5e and not under an open license. And that will impact the conversation. Just like it did when they did the same thing with 4e. Either it will be massively successful and players will flock to it and they'll finally have shut down the concept of open gaming around D&D, or it'll be moderately successful but not nearly as successful as they need it to be to justify the amount of money they're spending on it, repeating the mistakes of 4th edition all over again. And people will keep playing and supporting 5e.
 


Whizbang Dustyboots

100% that gnome
But that was already true under the OGL?
The market would move on. Now, between Black Flag and the other 5E-compatible systems coming, there's going to be an alternative available to 1D&D before 1D&D ever hits the streets. Publishers other than WotC can put out material with confidence, without worrying that everything they're making will suddenly be for an obsolete system. People who don't like 1D&D will have off-ramps they can choose before 1D&D ever comes out and will be able to have confidence that Kobold and others will continue to produce content they want to consume.
 

Haplo781

Legend
4) Leverage that IP! Not only does WotC have the sole rights to slap "Dungeons & Dragons" on their cover, they have the sole rights to the Forgotten Realms, the World of Greyhawk, Dark Sun and Gamma World. I think Friday's decision means they will be more likely to release these as products in the coming years, as player-facing splatbooks and bestiaries put them on the same playing fields with Kobold Press and the like, and they're not a playing field where they always win, to put it mildly. (And yeah, Gamma World can and should be a D&D setting. Most versions of the game, going back to the very beginning, have been fairly easy to combine with D&D, and creating a post-apocalyptic setting, possibly with more fantasy elements than previously, seems like a no-brainer product, either as a single book or as a slipcase set.)
Dear baby Jesus,

Please make WotC bring Gamma World back under a revamped 7e/D&D 4e ruleset. It can pay lip service to 5e/1DD compatibility but I want my at-will/encounter/daily powers and my zany robot cockroaches.
 

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