D&D General WotC Founder Peter Adkison On Hasbro's Layoffs

"Layoffs, when handed poorly ... are failings of character."

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Peter Adkison, who owned Wizards of the Coast until it was sold to Hasbro in 1999, oversaw the relaunch of Dungeons & Dragons with D&D 3rd Edition. Today, he commented on this week's round of Hasbro layoffs, which have ripped through WotC. Adkison left WotC in 2000 and currently runs a production company called Hostile Work Environment.

Like many of you, I'm saddened to learn about the layoffs at Hasbro.

Caveat: I have no idea of what’s happening behind the scenes at WotC. If you’re asking who’s at fault, or to what extent it was or was not justified, that’s outside the scope of my knowledge. This post is about my own reflections.

When I read about the layoffs at Hasbro my immediate feeling was shame. Shame for when I did the same thing, at the same company (WotC, before we sold it to Hasbro).

I have made lots of mistakes, tons of them, more than I can even remember. And while I regret those mistakes, and I’m sad for those hurt, I realize it’s part of learning and it’s part of being human.

But layoffs, when handed poorly, or when they are unnecessary, aren’t just mistakes. They are failings of character. Those times when I had a failure of character, those are the moments that haunt me.
 

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NotAYakk

Legend
Sure - I am not saying it will fail. I'm saying that part of the planning for every IT project should be that it is quite plausible it will fail, because most do.

Maybe it will be a resounding success! That most IT projects fail doesn't mean every IT project fails.

And the less likely you are to account for your IT project failing, the more likely it will.

This can go all the way down to an IT project that is planned to fail, but the failure is planned such that it is a success; in theory, that is what a bunch of "modern" project planning boils down to. Deliver something useful, even something meh, as soon as possible, and reach the point that there is something to "fail back to" as soon as you can.

Note that the VTT failure in 4e's case is unlikely to repeat in the same way. Now that was some soap-opera scale insanity. "Learning from mistakes" there is sort of not a real thing. :) I mean, other than baking in "something will happen that makes our plans useless, so plan for that".

In any case, buying a pre-made character creator that lots of people like is smart if you can get it for a decent price. There are lots of stuff that can go wrong in character creator design (compare it to the 4e one, which was this silverlight monstrocity) and you get to step around them to a solved instance. Feel free to write a new one - but now you have the standard of a fully working one you have to match or exceed, which is great for quality control (if horrible in terms of having to be backwards compatible). Your rewrite, like all IT projects, is likely to fail - but if you don't force it down the mouths of your consumers, the failure will be internal.
 

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nevin

Hero
The problem with this discussion from either point of view is. We don't know till we know so it's all opinions, smoke and mirrors at this point.
 

mamba

Legend
How in the world does 4e failed VTT not count? It is the same company trying to solve the same problem.
That was too long ago, and there are completely different people working on the VTT now.

Yes, if you define away all problems, there are no problems, everything is trivial. Any evidence to the contrary is just not a true scottsman.
Fine, so they failed last time, you taking this as an indicator for the current development team is still worse than saying we have no track record, because of the above, but hey, knock yourself out

The general rule is that IT projects fail. That has to be baked into every IT project plan.
if that were the general rule, we would not have any. What is baked into the plan is a buffer, just like there is when you e.g. build a house or a bridge, etc.

Buying an existing company with a working IT system, you can do due diligence and know what you are getting, and get it right now.
Tell that to Elon Musk

Reinventing that product, you don't know all of the complications because that is what an IT project is, it is finding the unknown complications and fixing them. If you knew the complications, you'd already have a completed project.
yeah, that is not what it is. Many of the things you need for a DDB clone have been done time and again. It's basically a remote database with a web frontend that needs to scale decently, there are many of those out there. You are not inventing something radically new here, hire someone with the right experience.

Let's try something else. They are implementing a VTT. Do you agree that VTTs are more complex that what DDB is? Do you agree that if WotC can pull that off (which is still tbd), they could have created a DDB of their own as well?
 

NotAYakk

Legend
That was too long ago, and there are completely different people working on the VTT now.
Because company culture is just the people currently working on a project?

Ya, no. Company culture outlasts the current people implementing it, and changing it isn't as simple as a round of employee turnover over a decade.

Regardless, I'm talking about the complexity of an IT project. The idea that it is guaranteed that you can make a character builder that doesn't suck is ridiculous, because we've seen it done and we've seen it failed. And same with a VTT - we have a company of basically the same size, try and fail to make a VTT - this same company, a short while ago.

Am I proving that this VTT will fail? I am not trying to prove that.

Fine, so they failed last time, you taking this as an indicator for the current development team is still worse than saying we have no track record, because of the above, but hey, knock yourself out
No, I'm saying it is unreasonable to assume success. I'm the one saying 50-50 - a toss up, failure or success -- and you are objecting to that estimate rate of failure is too high. You seem to want to assume success as nearly guaranteed or something.

Alternatively, you are talking my claims that success isn't guaranteed as if my position is failure is guaranteed?

Who knows, I don't.

I just think that most IT projects fail, are significantly overbudget, and/or produce something that sucks, and this holds across most industries and over most kinds of companies who try to implement IT projects. So given an IT project, there is a better than 50-50 chance it will be overbudget, fail or suck. And that WotC isn't magically immune to it, as evidenced by its past failures in exactly the same area.

You might think that this new iteration (tm) would be magically immune to that? Or that most IT projects don't fail, aren't significantly overbudget, and don't produce something that sucks? I'm really not sure what you are objecting to here. It appears to be whatever I'm saying, however.

if that were the general rule, we would not have any. What is baked into the plan is a buffer, just like there is when you e.g. build a house or a bridge, etc.
No. The general rule is that they fail, so you bake into the project graceful exits and backup plans.

A buffer just means you are over-committing - you are saying "well, this project might not work, and if it doesn't we'll just throw more resources at it". That handles like 1 of the 3 common IT failure modes, and makes the other 2 failure modes worse.

When implementing an IT project you aren't copy/pasting an existing design on a new spot like most houses; you are designing a new kind of house. This is because on a computer you can literally clone an existing solution - there is no project to exist as an IT project if an existing solution solves your problem. (If you can't clone a solution that already exists for whatever reason, then the mechanism of cloning itself becomes the IT project)

By making "duplicating what has already been solved" trivial, information technology ensures that projects do not consist of "duplicating what has already been solved". In the world of IT, once you have built the first suspension bridge, you can copy-paste it over every river that it can cross. So installing the suspension bridge becomes about how it interacts with the ground. Once you have solved how the suspension bridge interacts with certain kinds of ground, you get free copy-paste of that bridge on all ground that matches your solution.

Which means anywhere else you want to build that "IT suspension bridge", the ground where you want to put it by definition has some problem that doesn't match the existing solutions; if that wasn't true, the bridge would have already been installed and you wouldn't be talking about the project.

So your project has to build up a new theory of how the pre-made pieces will interact with the unique local demands. Then you have to iron out all of the details that this new theory glosses over. In doing so, you could learn that your new theory is garbage. If your plan is to just have a resource buffer, you solve this by throwing more resources at the problem -- which does nothing, because what you are doing is the wrong thing to solve the problem.

Instead you have to plan for failure. You come up with the new theory, and a plan for both implementing it, and a plan for detecting failure, and a plan for backing out and abandoning the project. That last plan could involve intermediate milestones that deliver value even if the entire project will fail (to reduce potential losses), and making those intermediate milestones start as soon as possible (both as a means of detecting failure (if they don't appear as planned, then this is a red flag) and to reduce risk.

Things can still go well. Everything might work out as planned. You can even end up coming in under budget!

But you should plan for failure while you aim for success.

Tell that to Elon Musk
I said you can do due diligence. I didn't say you have to.

"Look, some idiot did something stupid, thus there is no hope of doing it right" is funny.

yeah, that is not what it is. Many of the things you need for a DDB clone have been done time and again. It's basically a remote database with a web frontend that needs to scale decently, there are many of those out there. You are not inventing something radically new here, hire someone with the right experience.
Ok, you again seem to be saying that I am saying that making a character creator is impossible.

I am not saying that. I'm saying that most attempts will fail, will be significantly over budget, or produce something that sucks.

And it isn't "basically a remote database with a web frontend" except in incorrectly over-simplified way that would describe everything, from the entire world financial industry to being "a remote database with a web frontend", wikipedia is a "remote database with a web frontend", expedia is a "remote database with a webfrontend" a bank is a "remote database with a web frontend" a hospital medical records tracker is a "remote database with a web frontend" a car share service is a "remote database with a web frontend" and ...

Heck - if you removed the entire "store character" portion from a character creator and just left the character creator, what you have in your sense is "a web frontend". As you can literally run any desktop software in a browser today, you just reduced every piece of desktop software to being "a web frontend", which (according to you) can be solved in a near-guaranteed manner simply by hiring a single someone with the right experience.

I just boggle.

Yes, there are many character creators. Many of them suck. Oh god, so many of them suck horribly. You never hear about them because nobody shares them and they don't get well known. The ones you know about are the cream of the crop, of thousands of people creating character creators and the 0.1% that are the best being shared around. Then people clone features off the better ones, and thousands of people again make iterative clones, of which 99%+ suck and are never seen by most people.

Looking at the roll20 or DDB code itself, it is full of these little hacks and crap that nobody designing a character creator de novo would ever insert into their design. It has iteratively replaced features that didn't work out. It has conventions for creating new features that didn't work, iterated upon until they did. It has bugs that have been ironed over.

It also has compromises that are far from guaranteed to be ideal.

Like, imagine a character that is a merkle tree of the character's build history, with information about invalid state being part of the tree, and each node being an applied change. Or a chain of appied changes being the core of the character, the results being at best cached output. This is a fundamentally different one than a character that is a character sheet, like literally what is written down on the paper, with rules to auto-fill some areas and rectify and fix errors. Alternatively, the character could be an abstract set of attributes which is rendered into a character sheet. I'd bet dollars to donuts that all 3 of these have been used in a character builder before, and they all have tradeoffs and limitations. (with all of these I can tell you what neat stuff you could do that would be hard with the alternatives).

And the rules system! The rules system is dynamic - naive implementations are going to presume that the rules that define what a character is aren't. Do you have characters that exist in a given (possibly no longer valid) rules system and mechanisms to update them? Do you update chracaters as the rules change? How do you represent the rules in a way that handles iterative change of the rules against static character sheets?

You might reduce this to "hire the right person" - the right person being someone who already solved it and get them to duplicate what they did in the exact same way? Or do you get them to be creative and solve it in the new way that they couldn't do at the last job they had, solving problems that bugged them there?

And all of this is still the "web frontend" part of the problem; I don't think it is a good idea to have all of this logic be handled on the server, as that leads to needless overhead. On the other hand, we do need to validate stuff; we don't want illegal characters to be in the database, do we? So do we actually implement everything on the server, all of the game logic, and just provide a web gui?

I'm up to at least a million different plausible designs for this in a 15 minute brainstorm. I'm betting most of them wouldn't scale right, and if you committed to the wrong one "with a buffer" you could easily end up throwing good money after bad at a variant that won't actually work when finished. Practically the only way to figure out which of these isn't going to work at a fundamental way is to try it - so now we are going to reverse engineer DDB and a dozen other character creators, and maybe clone the best one. Is that what you mean by the right person with the right skills?

My point is that IT projects can be glibly described in a way that hides infinite complexity. And if it is an actual project, that complexity hidden is where the actual work and risk is. The glib description is nonsense marketing you can use to sell it to decision makers who aren't actually qualified to know if the solution will work, it isn't the information you need to know if it works.

Let's try something else. They are implementing a VTT. Do you agree that VTTs are more complex that what DDB is? Do you agree that if WotC can pull that off (which is still tbd), they could have created a DDB of their own as well?
I think their VTT, even at this late stage, has under a 50% chance of not sucking, not blowing its budget hugely or launching.

And I think they could have created a DDB character builder. Their attempt would also have had under a 50% chance of not sucking, not blowing its budget hugely, or launching.

Again, I'm not saying these things are impossible. I'm saying they are deceptively hard.
 

mamba

Legend
Because company culture is just the people currently working on a project?
because company culture changes, and when you have no one from 20 years ago still working on it, it is a really bad predictor for the current team

Am I proving that this VTT will fail? I am not trying to prove that.
never claimed you did

No, I'm saying it is unreasonable to assume success.
if you assumed failure you would not start, so every project that does get started assumes success, the question is how much do you plan for contingencies

I'm the one saying 50-50 - a toss up, failure or success -- and you are objecting to that estimate rate of failure is too high. You seem to want to assume success as nearly guaranteed or something.
I am saying the failure rate is much lower than that, or you are defining failure as something that is a lot less than complete failure, like not meeting one of 10 goals completely, or being slightly over budget.

Alternatively, you are talking my claims that success isn't guaranteed as if my position is failure is guaranteed?
you called it a general rule that projects fail

I just think that most IT projects fail, are significantly overbudget, and/or produce something that sucks, and this holds across most industries and over most kinds of companies who try to implement IT projects.
and I think this is a strong overstatement of the case / stretch of what constitutes a failure

So given an IT project, there is a better than 50-50 chance it will be overbudget, fail or suck. And that WotC isn't magically immune to it, as evidenced by its past failures in exactly the same area.
I disagree with the premise that 50% of IT projects are utter failures that just wasted money and accomplished nothing

You might think that this new iteration (tm) would be magically immune to that?
no, I am saying you have no past track record for the team, and your premise is wrong. If the VTT costs 20% more than initially planned and attracts players like DDB did, is it a failure? Not in my book.

I guess you need to define what you mean by failure, because either what constitutes a failure or your failure rate do not add up

But you should plan for failure while you aim for success.
I have no idea what you mean here, I plan for contingencies, not for failure. Give me an example of what planning for failure looks like to you.

I said you can do due diligence. I didn't say you have to.
Musk spent months on due diligence

Ok, you again seem to be saying that I am saying that making a character creator is impossible.
from my understanding you said they could not build one for less than the 150M they paid for DDB, and I very much disagree with that

I am not saying that. I'm saying that most attempts will fail, will be significantly over budget, or produce something that sucks.
and I disagree, as I said above, give me your definition of failure, because I do not think we agree on that given your failure rate

And it isn't "basically a remote database with a web frontend" except in incorrectly over-simplified way that would describe everything, from the entire world financial industry to being "a remote database with a web frontend", wikipedia is a "remote database with a web frontend", expedia is a "remote database with a webfrontend" a bank is a "remote database with a web frontend" a hospital medical records tracker is a "remote database with a web frontend" a car share service is a "remote database with a web frontend" and ...
that is the relevant part of what makes DDB, tell me what part you consider important in addition

Heck - if you removed the entire "store character" portion from a character creator and just left the character creator, what you have in your sense is "a web frontend". As you can literally run any desktop software in a browser today, you just reduced every piece of desktop software to being "a web frontend", which (according to you) can be solved in a near-guaranteed manner simply by hiring a single someone with the right experience.
not sure what your point is

Yes, there are many character creators. Many of them suck. Oh god, so many of them suck horribly. You never hear about them because nobody shares them and they don't get well known.
and chances are the money spent on them is not in the 2-digit millions

The ones you know about are the cream of the crop, of thousands of people creating character creators and the 0.1% that are the best being shared around.
so now we are talking about a hobbyist creating one in their spare time?

Looking at the roll20 or DDB code itself, it is full of these little hacks and crap that nobody designing a character creator de novo would ever insert into their design. It has iteratively replaced features that didn't work out. It has conventions for creating new features that didn't work, iterated upon until they did. It has bugs that have been ironed over.
not sure how this is relevant

And the rules system! The rules system is dynamic - naive implementations are going to presume that the rules that define what a character is aren't. Do you have characters that exist in a given (possibly no longer valid) rules system and mechanisms to update them? Do you update chracaters as the rules change? How do you represent the rules in a way that handles iterative change of the rules against static character sheets?
5e was essentially static, you got new subclasses, races, etc., but the rules stayed the same. DDB with its focus on 5e probably is not great at this, chances are that char creators that accommodate several rulesets are better at this.

Even so, this is ongoing maintenance, and if that means you eventually have to revise something you did years ago, then that is the norm.

You might reduce this to "hire the right person" - the right person being someone who already solved it and get them to duplicate what they did in the exact same way? Or do you get them to be creative and solve it in the new way that they couldn't do at the last job they had, solving problems that bugged them there?
the hire the right person is the database , scaling and web frontend, the stuff you brought up is just general design

And all of this is still the "web frontend" part of the problem; I don't think it is a good idea to have all of this logic be handled on the server, as that leads to needless overhead. On the other hand, we do need to validate stuff; we don't want illegal characters to be in the database, do we? So do we actually implement everything on the server, all of the game logic, and just provide a web gui?
these validations are so basic and your load is so low (compared to some of the bigger systems out there) that it really does not matter

I'm up to at least a million different plausible designs for this in a 15 minute brainstorm.
I doubt that very much

I'm betting most of them wouldn't scale right, and if you committed to the wrong one "with a buffer" you could easily end up throwing good money after bad at a variant that won't actually work when finished. Practically the only way to figure out which of these isn't going to work at a fundamental way is to try it - so now we are going to reverse engineer DDB and a dozen other character creators, and maybe clone the best one. Is that what you mean by the right person with the right skills?
remember when I said to hire someone with experience? This is so I do not get someone like you who thinks any brainfart is a feasible solution

My point is that IT projects can be glibly described in a way that hides infinite complexity.
sure, but the point remains that out of the scope of possible IT projects, this is not really one of the difficult ones. You can also talk up complexity where there isn't much, because you pretend that there are millions of options that need to be evaluated when there really are maybe a handful
 

nevin

Hero
sure, but the point remains that out of the scope of possible IT projects, this is not really one of the difficult ones. You can also talk up complexity where there isn't much, because you pretend that there are millions of options that need to be evaluated when there really are maybe a handful
sadly complexity is not one of the big factors in failure. It's planning, executive buy in and executive's being willing to stay focused on the project and where it's going because if they don't no one else will. All the planning , talent and money won't help if they people in charge don't act like it's important and stay engaged till it works correctly. usually project fail at the beginning when the CIO and the CEO and the CFO go , "nice job guys make sure you hit the deadline" and then move on to the next thing.
 

mamba

Legend
sadly complexity is not one of the big factors in failure. It's planning, executive buy in and executive's being willing to stay focused on the project and where it's going because if they don't no one else will. All the planning , talent and money won't help if they people in charge don't act like it's important and stay engaged till it works correctly. usually project fail at the beginning when the CIO and the CEO and the CFO go , "nice job guys make sure you hit the deadline" and then move on to the next thing.
agreed, but I feel like WotC working on a DDB clone or VTT would have the buy in, this is not a small sideshow that only one higher-up cares about and gets shelved midway because that person has left the company
 

nevin

Hero
agreed, but I feel like WotC working on a DDB clone or VTT would have the buy in, this is not a small sideshow that only one higher-up cares about and gets shelved midway because that person has left the company
no lots of projects get started because some mid level guy scrapes together the money to start it thinking they'll make thier career move . Very rarely this works, usually because it's being done without executive sponsership it fails.
 

mamba

Legend
no lots of projects get started because some mid level guy scrapes together the money to start it thinking they'll make thier career move . Very rarely this works, usually because it's being done without executive sponsership it fails.
I agreed with that, I was saying I do not consider a DDB clone or VTT at WotC to be among those projects. They are too core-business and expensive for that
 


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