GMforPowergamers
Legend
My point isn't really about Paizo - they were just the company that ended up doing it. My point is about the impact an indefinite OGL has on WOTC in the long term.
have you ever heard of the diffusion of innovations?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
I think the real damage of the OGL to D&D (and the rpg scene as a whole) is there...
when 2e switched to 3e innovators jumped on right away when dragon was doing the lead up articles, I remember being weary myself at the time, and a lot of people in my college gameing club where bad mouthing WotC saying "I don't want to play Magic the D&D rip off"
Early adaptors bought the book the first month, I only knew 1 person other then myself, even though I had 40+ gamers in my group back then. Early Majority came a little later with my first game when less then 1/3 of my group were even willing to try the system... I knew people still playing 2e a year later who didn't want to even look at the books, late majority though was a large swath of those players though. At that point the books like sword and fist and dfenders of the faith started to sway people... the very idea of prestige classes came into it's own and people who had gone 2-3 years with out a lot of new stuff started saying "well lets give it a fair shot atleast" by the time 3.5 books where out at gen con almost everyone I knew was buying D20 books.
now going back as I understand the transition from 1e to 2e went a lot the same for the 2 groups I know of.
now lets look at 4e...
I was sold on 4e as an innovator... 3e was already pretty dead in my eyes and I was ready for 3e before it's announcement. I bought those preview books and was trying to get a 4e game togather when I heard of the keep of the shadow fell book came out. Now my group was abit smaller by then we had about 30 of us... It fell almost along the same lines as 8 years earlier though... some wanted to stay with 3.5 (almost an exact dup of the people who wanted to stay with 2e) the early adaptors made a game... the early majority is where we hit our snag. See by then I was testing pathfinder... at this point in the 2-3e half our games were 3e and half where 2e and those of us that liked 3e would talk it up... but something changed here.
see I would play a playtest game and talk about how 4e did something... and be told bad things sometimes untrue sometimes just baseless wotc attacks... and as such that number was smaller... then a lot of people who where late majority last time, this time said "Why switch I can keep getting books here..." where last time that option did not exsist.
people who dislike change and wait until the last minute... never had a last minute. The peer reviews were split between a slight revamp and a whole relaunch... and the edition war raged harder then ever.
There was a 2e 3rd party set of books (not legaly) called Mayfair games. I remember that back then they had a very thin vener of there system. If they could have wiggled into making more and more 2e suppliments I know for a fact my group would have fractured back then... but instead Tsr/WotC suied them and shut them down, and moved on.