I think part of what is impacting P2 sales is that Paizo is still putting out their pocket editions of the 1e material. Therefore people don't see a real need to convert yet as material they did not get previously is being released at that lower price point in full color.
Are you saying people who don't have PF1 are buying the paperback PF1 books in lieu of the PF2 material?
The PF1 Core is the best selling pocket book.
Once that program is over it will be a slow burn hit, P2 will sell steady and get a better install base.
Why?
Really it is a superior game
No, it really isn't remotely.
......
Ok, seriously, that is obviously a matter of opinion and I truly respect that there will be people who love PF2. There is clearly a niche of fans who prefer this super-math over everything else approach.
But your statement is an opinion and entirely subjective. So I may as well express my opinion as an absolute as well.
Seriously, the context here, your own context from the very prior sentence, is with regard to installing a sales base. So you can't claim that you are just speaking for yourself. You are presenting a claim of consensus truth, if not an outright objective fact. And it is not remotely either of those. The question becomes: what portion of the fanbase agrees with you? And all evidence points to "not nearly enough".
Your entire premise is founded on the idea that it "will be a slow burn hit" "once that program is over", which is a concession that it ain't a hit right now. That is not a good starting point.
but I can understand the reticence to convert expecially with the old material being reprinted at the same time fracturing their market base for a game that in the long run NEEDS to be successful for them.
If I liked PF2, I'd dump PF1 in a heartbeat. I think it is absurd to claim that there are tons of people who see PF2 as "a superior game", but not only have they not converted, they have not even bothered to buy the product yet.
This exact same rationalization was offered up during the 4E days. 4E would boom "as soon as everyone wrapped up their 3E campaigns".
It didn't happen. The reason then was, people who continued their 3E campaigns in 3E did so because they liked 3E more than 4E. And people who liked 4E more than 3E either converted midcampaign or just started new campaigns. Collectively speaking, people start new campaigns constantly. And they don't play an inferior game when they have the option to play a superior game. They will play the game they like better now, and later they will also play the game they like better.