D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

While several epidemiologists have predicted a high probability of a second wave of Covid-19, they seemed to be mostly talking about previously uninfected people falling ill.

However, there’s another wrinkle just recently coming to light: people who were recovering are testing positive again.

Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic. The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are...

www.yahoo.com

As the article states, they don’t know yet WHY this is happening. Some could be false positive tests, but not all, since some of the Re-infected are displaying symptoms. Some could be false recoveries. Some could be re-infections, possibly by other strains, or demonstrating that infection-based immunity to Covid-19 is vanishingly brief. Least likely, but still possible, is something seen in non-coronaviruses, namely going dormant for a while then re-emerging.

 

[FrogReaver]

While several epidemiologists have predicted a high probability of a second wave of Covid-19, they seemed to be mostly talking about previously uninfected people falling ill.

However, there’s another wrinkle just recently coming to light: people who were recovering are testing positive again.

Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic. The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are...

www.yahoo.com

As the article states, they don’t know yet WHY this is happening. Some could be false positive tests, but not all, since some of the Re-infected are displaying symptoms. Some could be false recoveries. Some could be re-infections, possibly by other strains, or demonstrating that infection-based immunity to Covid-19 is vanishingly brief. Least likely, but still possible, is something seen in non-coronaviruses, namely going dormant for a while then re-emerging.

Maybe they caught the flu and now have a false positive test?

 

[Zardnaar]

60 k seems more accurate to me, which is Vietnam war level.

The only pattern seems to be 3-4 weeks of peak death toll. Even if the government does nothing people hide.

3-5 months to burn out.

Projections we have here.

1. Strict lockdown over in about June. Low fatalities, over sooner. More economic pain short term (we have 60% workforce at home).

2. Herd immunity plan more death, burns out faster but not as fast as 1.

3. Half assed lockdown. Less fatalities than 2 won't be over until near end of year.

Doesn't include wave 2 or 3 if there's more.

 

[Zardnaar]

While several epidemiologists have predicted a high probability of a second wave of Covid-19, they seemed to be mostly talking about previously uninfected people falling ill.

However, there’s another wrinkle just recently coming to light: people who were recovering are testing positive again.

Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic. The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are...

www.yahoo.com

As the article states, they don’t know yet WHY this is happening. Some could be false positive tests, but not all, since some of the Re-infected are displaying symptoms. Some could be false recoveries. Some could be re-infections, possibly by other strains, or demonstrating that infection-based immunity to Covid-19 is vanishingly brief. Least likely, but still possible, is something seen in non-coronaviruses, namely going dormant for a while then re-emerging.

Seen that.

Doomsday case
As worst case Covid mutates becomes more lethal


Worst case.
Covids recurring, no vaccine

Less bad
Covids recurring, eventual vaccine

Best case.
Covid burns itself out, vaccine quicker than anticipated.

Anyone who had it needs to be isolated until vaccine is developed. Some authoritarian regimes would have another cheaper option.

Bad, worse, awful pick one.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Maybe they caught the flu and now have a false positive test?

AFAIK, while the symptoms may similar enough to prompt a retest, flu won’t give you a false positive.

False positive readings in the previously infected could result from inescapable flaws in the test, from the particular test used actually being defective in some way, or being so sensitive that it’s detecting the presence of the virus from the aftermath of the infection.

 

[FrogReaver]

AFAIK, while the symptoms may similar enough to prompt a retest, flu won’t give you a false positive.

False positive readings in the previously infected could result from inescapable flaws in the test, from the particular test used actually being defective in some way, or being so sensitive that it’s detecting the presence of the virus from the aftermath of the infection.

I didn't claim flu would give a false positive. I said they could have flu while also getting a false positive. 2 independent actions...

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm not gonna worry until we have more info. I'll file it with the cat thing.

Fortess NZ is our best case.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

 

[FrogReaver]

I'm not gonna worry until we have more info. I'll file it with the cat thing.

Not worried about cats either. If they can get it then they get it much less severely/frequently than humans do.

Not worried about less than 100 people that appear to have gotten it again. When nearly 1.7 million cases have been discovered, the possibility of 100 people getting it again could have so many explanations.
1. Different virus with a false positive coronavirus test.
2. something special about those people allowed them to actually get it again but that doesn't apply to most people.
3. Test is so sensitive it's picking up inactive virus still in their bodies.

IMO Give it at least a few thousand people getting it again before I start getting worried that this virus will have an extremely short immunity period.

 

[Son of the Serpent]

I'm not gonna worry until we have more info. I'll file it with the cat thing.

Fortess NZ is our best case.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

Cat thing?

 

[FrogReaver]

Cat thing?

A few cats and dogs and tigers tested positive.