D&D 5E Looking for inspiration for D&D data projects

[Esker]

Haha... R is a programming language, designed with statistics in mind.

Here's DC 9 with -2 for each level of fatigue:

 

[Fenris-77]

Super-duper, thanks! I should asked have at the beginning where the 1st exhaustion kicks in, on average. Given that a long rest only removes one level of exhaustion, I think that might be the more normal stopping point on a lot of adventuring days. I'm guessing that's represented by the longer drops that start around 8 in that most recent image?

 

[Guest 6801328]

Advantage/disadvantage is equal to +5/-5 when you need a nat 11 or better to succeed. For other DCs it's less than that.

I believe it peaks at 10.5 then goes back down again.

 

[Esker]

I believe it peaks at 10.5 then goes back down again.

I mean, needing a 10.5 to succeed means you need an 11, since you can't roll a fractional amount on the die. The impact of advantage/disadvantage peaks when the base success chance is 50%.

 

[Esker]

Super-duper, thanks! I should asked have at the beginning where the 1st exhaustion kicks in, on average. Given that a long rest only removes one level of exhaustion, I think that might be the more normal stopping point on a lot of adventuring days. I'm guessing that's represented by the longer drops that start around 8 in that most recent image?

Here it is broken down by castings to first exhaustion, and castings if you start with one level of exhaustion.

 

[Fenris-77]

You are a worker of miraculous transformations, sir. That gives me a lot of great info to tweak my model. Thanks again, much appreciated. If the first level of exhaustion capped the whole process, would the line just be the red one?

It seems from comparing the graphs that changing the DC has a much larger impact than changing the fatigue mods. Am I seeing that right? Changing the DC by two dropped the median from 18 to 14, but changing the mods after that barely moved the needle, from 14 down to 13.5? I just want to make sure I'm digesting this right. Hopefully I am, as that means I have both a gross and fine adjustment knob for the numbers.

 

[Esker]

You are a worker of miraculous transformations, sir. That gives me a lot of great info to tweak my model. Thanks again, much appreciated. If the first level of exhaustion capped the whole process, would the line just be the red one?

It seems from comparing the graphs that changing the DC has a much larger impact than changing the fatigue mods. Am I seeing that right? Changing the DC by two dropped the median from 18 to 14, but changing the mods after that barely moved the needle, from 14 down to 13.5? I just want to make sure I'm digesting this right. Hopefully I am, as that means I have both a gross and fine adjustment knob for the numbers.

Yup, red is the number of checks til the first level of exhaustion. And yeah, DC has a bigger impact, since it affects all rolls, whereas fatigue penalty only starts to matter after the first failure (and going from 0 to 1 level of fatigue is the longest segment since the rolls are easiest then)

 

[Guest 6801328]

I mean, needing a 10.5 to succeed means you need an 11, since you can't roll a fractional amount on the die. The impact of advantage/disadvantage peaks when the base success chance is 50%.

I was thinking it was equal at 10 or 11, which is why I wrote 10.5. But maybe I'm wrong about that and the peak is really 11.

The other point was that the value then declines continuously from 12 to 20.

 

[Esker]

I was thinking it was equal at 10 or 11, which is why I wrote 10.5. But maybe I'm wrong about that and the peak is really 11.

The other point was that the value then declines continuously from 12 to 20.

Yeah, 10.5 is the average on a d20, but because meeting the DC counts as a success, an adjusted DC (actual DC minus modifier) of 11 gives you exactly 50:50 odds of success (whereas needing a 10 is 55:45)

 

[Ovinomancer]

GAH! Advantage/disadvantage is never actually like +/-5 at any point on the scale. It has a similar OUTCOME at 11 as a normal roll with a + or - 5, yes, but having a similar outcome is not at all being the same thing. And that difference becomes very apparent the further from the center you get.

Sorry, pet peeve when people try to turn a normal distribution into a shifted flat one. You hide information for no added clarity. It's a disservice.