D&D 5E Price Increase on D&D & MtG coming

[see]

Yeah, the Federal Reserve keeps talking about the current inflation being "transient", and maybe it is, but a cumulative 2.9% from the month-to-month numbers from March through June is not negligible.

 

[Greg Benage]

I have some questions, unsure if you can share more (or if they're invasive).

What is causing the price increases? Is it related to the pandemic or other issues? Are these price increases expected to become the norm or will there be decreases?

I'm not J-H, but yeah, it's the pandemic. There's a container shortage -- or really, a "containers in the right place" shortage. There are gazillions of empty containers in ports and inland depots that couldn't be sent back to exporters (mostly Asia) due to COVID restrictions.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

Yeah, the Federal Reserve keeps talking about the current inflation being "transient", and maybe it is, but a cumulative 2.9% from the month-to-month numbers from March through June is not negligible.

It absolutely is transient, its driven by production issues thanks to lockdowns, among other issues, like Saudi Arabia cutting oil production and beetles destroying trees meant to be lumber and increased DIY projects at the same time. Its a storm of things hitting all at once, but it will pass. That doesn't mean D&D book prices will drop back down when it does sadly.

 

[overgeeked]

Awesome. Now can we get PDFs again, WotC? That'd be great. No need to jack up prices due to any of those issues with PDFs.

 

[Shiroiken]

Awesome. Now can we get PDFs again, WotC? That'd be great. No need to jack up prices due to any of those issues with PDFs.

They'll raise the price of PDFs to too, because reasons

 

[J-H]

I have some questions, unsure if you can share more (or if they're invasive).

What is causing the price increases? Is it related to the pandemic or other issues? Are these price increases expected to become the norm or will there be decreases?

A non-comprehensive list, with no research done right now to freshen up exact numbers in my mind:
-Containers in the wrong places due to disruptions over the last 18 months
-Port congestion - there's still only so much loading/unloading capacity. Anything beyond capacity has to wait.
Here's an article from an industry newsletter I'm subscribed to: Container Rates to U.S. Top $10,000 as Shipping Crunch Tightens
It may be paywalled, but there was a NYT article (they're a politicized rag but occasionally okay) back in January about the problems Peloton was having with their internet-connected bikes. Order a bike? Wait 5 months for delivery. Good luck getting updates. This costs orders and is expensive. In a multi-million dollar deal, Peloton actually bought a US fitness equipment brand specifically for their US-based factories so they could on-shore some production.

-$4-$6 trillion dollars "printed" in a year or two inflates the money supply, reducing the value of each individual dollar. Standard inflation stuff as a result of loose monetary policy. This is also driving a stock market and real estate bubble. Prices go up, even as the real value of the dollar goes down (penalizing savers, those on fixed incomes, and people who are hourly or salaried but not getting raises).

-In the US, there's a shortage of CDL (Commercial Drivers License/tractor-trailer drivers). Anyone over the age of about 20 can do it with an 8 week course, but who wants to be away from home 40 weeks a year, driving 50 hours per week, for $50k-$60k per year? You can only park in tractor-trailer parking (truck stops), you're usually not treated with much respect by shippers/receivers, if anything goes wrong your repair bills or tickets can be $1k to $5k, and your productivity (miles driven = pay) is largely determined by factors outside your control like traffic, what loads your dispatch puts you on, and problems at the loading or unloading warehouse that waste your time. The CDL population has skewed heavily older (average age late 40s to 50s? don't recall the #). There have been articles for the last decade warning of a CDL shortage. Guess what? Some of them decided last year was a good time to retire. When demand is up and supply is down, prices go up. Drivers are FINALLY getting paid more, and it's getting passed on to, well, everyone. Almost everything moves on trucks as the last leg of a journey, even intermodal containers that mostly move via ocean and rail. Prices go up.

-Tied to this, it's very hard to hire anyone for anything right now. The labor market is extremely tight. Last year, we could hire someone for our appointment-setting call center for $15/hr in Dallas. This year, the staffing company says starting pay is $19. $16/hr used to be a good wage for skilled warehouse labor (forklift operator/good handling). Amazon is now starting people at $15/hr. Two of our major metro area crossdock operations have been running a 2-week lag time on orders (constantly behind) because demand is outstripping capacity, and they can't find/hire qualified crews fast enough. Higher labor costs = higher rates charged to all customers. It's a good year in transportation when you have a 8% margin at the end of the year. Prices go up.

-Supply chain disruptions. If you need Component A to make Widget B and component A is stuck in Shenzhen for 3 weeks extra and you run out, you now can't make and sell Widget B. Or maybe there was a lockdown that stopped production? Whatever. I know there's a semiconductor and chip shortage right now impacting auto manufacturers, computer makers, etc., and I don't recall what it's from. Something in Taiwan I think. Your competitors may all have the same problem. Now the supply of Widget B is low, and someone along the chain (maybe a distributor) can raise prices to help manage the demand. Prices go up.

-Raw material price increases: Lumber spiked massively and is still historically pretty high. My understanding is that there are plenty of trees, and plenty of demand, but not plenty of sawmills (again, not a prestigious job). Opening a new sawmill is a very expensive proposition for an industry that doesn't usually have massive amounts of cash on hand, and can take a couple of years (building/permitting/equipment ordering, lead time, install, hiring staff, training, etc.). Plastics are suffering some from the freeze in Texas in February. Apparently a lot of the pipes at the plants weren't designed for the cold we got, and cleaning out solidified plastic from pipes involves taking things apart. Oil prices are doing their thing, partly due to politics (oil pipeline from Canada bad, oil pipeline from Russia good, shrug). That always impacts everything. There's a drought (again) in some parts of the country, and the meat supply chain had a few disruptions last year (I have a few animals and am having to book butcher dates more than 12 months in advance). An article last week had a grocery store chain CEO forecasting a 10-14% price raise by Q4. Prices go up.

I'm sure there are more factors, but almost every industry or product gets touched by some or all of money, oil, international trade, trucking, and some type of raw material. There are a lot of things driving prices up.

Then wages have to go up to avoid people getting real pay cuts, and now money is worth less so prices have to go up again, and then we're back in the 1970s but with better haircuts and better cars.

I only really get US news on the economy, but I think at least some of these factors are going to be in play in the rest of the Anglosphere and the first-world economies.

 

[Zardnaar]

A non-comprehensive list, with no research done right now to freshen up exact numbers in my mind:
-Containers in the wrong places due to disruptions over the last 18 months
-Port congestion - there's still only so much loading/unloading capacity. Anything beyond capacity has to wait.
Here's an article from an industry newsletter I'm subscribed to: Container Rates to U.S. Top $10,000 as Shipping Crunch Tightens
It may be paywalled, but there was a NYT article (they're a politicized rag but occasionally okay) back in January about the problems Peloton was having with their internet-connected bikes. Order a bike? Wait 5 months for delivery. Good luck getting updates. This costs orders and is expensive. In a multi-million dollar deal, Peloton actually bought a US fitness equipment brand specifically for their US-based factories so they could on-shore some production.

-$4-$6 trillion dollars "printed" in a year or two inflates the money supply, reducing the value of each individual dollar. Standard inflation stuff as a result of loose monetary policy. This is also driving a stock market and real estate bubble. Prices go up, even as the real value of the dollar goes down (penalizing savers, those on fixed incomes, and people who are hourly or salaried but not getting raises).

-In the US, there's a shortage of CDL (Commercial Drivers License/tractor-trailer drivers). Anyone over the age of about 20 can do it with an 8 week course, but who wants to be away from home 40 weeks a year, driving 50 hours per week, for $50k-$60k per year? You can only park in tractor-trailer parking (truck stops), you're usually not treated with much respect by shippers/receivers, if anything goes wrong your repair bills or tickets can be $1k to $5k, and your productivity (miles driven = pay) is largely determined by factors outside your control like traffic, what loads your dispatch puts you on, and problems at the loading or unloading warehouse that waste your time. The CDL population has skewed heavily older (average age late 40s to 50s? don't recall the #). There have been articles for the last decade warning of a CDL shortage. Guess what? Some of them decided last year was a good time to retire. When demand is up and supply is down, prices go up. Drivers are FINALLY getting paid more, and it's getting passed on to, well, everyone. Almost everything moves on trucks as the last leg of a journey, even intermodal containers that mostly move via ocean and rail. Prices go up.

-Tied to this, it's very hard to hire anyone for anything right now. The labor market is extremely tight. Last year, we could hire someone for our appointment-setting call center for $15/hr in Dallas. This year, the staffing company says starting pay is $19. $16/hr used to be a good wage for skilled warehouse labor (forklift operator/good handling). Amazon is now starting people at $15/hr. Two of our major metro area crossdock operations have been running a 2-week lag time on orders (constantly behind) because demand is outstripping capacity, and they can't find/hire qualified crews fast enough. Higher labor costs = higher rates charged to all customers. It's a good year in transportation when you have a 8% margin at the end of the year. Prices go up.

-Supply chain disruptions. If you need Component A to make Widget B and component A is stuck in Shenzhen for 3 weeks extra and you run out, you now can't make and sell Widget B. Or maybe there was a lockdown that stopped production? Whatever. I know there's a semiconductor and chip shortage right now impacting auto manufacturers, computer makers, etc., and I don't recall what it's from. Something in Taiwan I think. Your competitors may all have the same problem. Now the supply of Widget B is low, and someone along the chain (maybe a distributor) can raise prices to help manage the demand. Prices go up.

-Raw material price increases: Lumber spiked massively and is still historically pretty high. My understanding is that there are plenty of trees, and plenty of demand, but not plenty of sawmills (again, not a prestigious job). Opening a new sawmill is a very expensive proposition for an industry that doesn't usually have massive amounts of cash on hand, and can take a couple of years (building/permitting/equipment ordering, lead time, install, hiring staff, training, etc.). Plastics are suffering some from the freeze in Texas in February. Apparently a lot of the pipes at the plants weren't designed for the cold we got, and cleaning out solidified plastic from pipes involves taking things apart. Oil prices are doing their thing, partly due to politics (oil pipeline from Canada bad, oil pipeline from Russia good, shrug). That always impacts everything. There's a drought (again) in some parts of the country, and the meat supply chain had a few disruptions last year (I have a few animals and am having to book butcher dates more than 12 months in advance). An article last week had a grocery store chain CEO forecasting a 10-14% price raise by Q4. Prices go up.

I'm sure there are more factors, but almost every industry or product gets touched by some or all of money, oil, international trade, trucking, and some type of raw material. There are a lot of things driving prices up.

Then wages have to go up to avoid people getting real pay cuts, and now money is worth less so prices have to go up again, and then we're back in the 1970s but with better haircuts and better cars.

I only really get US news on the economy, but I think at least some of these factors are going to be in play in the rest of the Anglosphere and the first-world economies.

Inflation has hit 3% here and they're thinking it's gonna hit 4%.

I think USA is projectibg 9% inflation.

Two generations haven't really experienced inflation.

There's also upward pressure on wages.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

A non-comprehensive list, with no research done right now to freshen up exact numbers in my mind:
-Containers in the wrong places due to disruptions over the last 18 months
-Port congestion - there's still only so much loading/unloading capacity. Anything beyond capacity has to wait.
Here's an article from an industry newsletter I'm subscribed to: Container Rates to U.S. Top $10,000 as Shipping Crunch Tightens
It may be paywalled, but there was a NYT article (they're a politicized rag but occasionally okay) back in January about the problems Peloton was having with their internet-connected bikes. Order a bike? Wait 5 months for delivery. Good luck getting updates. This costs orders and is expensive. In a multi-million dollar deal, Peloton actually bought a US fitness equipment brand specifically for their US-based factories so they could on-shore some production.

-$4-$6 trillion dollars "printed" in a year or two inflates the money supply, reducing the value of each individual dollar. Standard inflation stuff as a result of loose monetary policy. This is also driving a stock market and real estate bubble. Prices go up, even as the real value of the dollar goes down (penalizing savers, those on fixed incomes, and people who are hourly or salaried but not getting raises).

-In the US, there's a shortage of CDL (Commercial Drivers License/tractor-trailer drivers). Anyone over the age of about 20 can do it with an 8 week course, but who wants to be away from home 40 weeks a year, driving 50 hours per week, for $50k-$60k per year? You can only park in tractor-trailer parking (truck stops), you're usually not treated with much respect by shippers/receivers, if anything goes wrong your repair bills or tickets can be $1k to $5k, and your productivity (miles driven = pay) is largely determined by factors outside your control like traffic, what loads your dispatch puts you on, and problems at the loading or unloading warehouse that waste your time. The CDL population has skewed heavily older (average age late 40s to 50s? don't recall the #). There have been articles for the last decade warning of a CDL shortage. Guess what? Some of them decided last year was a good time to retire. When demand is up and supply is down, prices go up. Drivers are FINALLY getting paid more, and it's getting passed on to, well, everyone. Almost everything moves on trucks as the last leg of a journey, even intermodal containers that mostly move via ocean and rail. Prices go up.

-Tied to this, it's very hard to hire anyone for anything right now. The labor market is extremely tight. Last year, we could hire someone for our appointment-setting call center for $15/hr in Dallas. This year, the staffing company says starting pay is $19. $16/hr used to be a good wage for skilled warehouse labor (forklift operator/good handling). Amazon is now starting people at $15/hr. Two of our major metro area crossdock operations have been running a 2-week lag time on orders (constantly behind) because demand is outstripping capacity, and they can't find/hire qualified crews fast enough. Higher labor costs = higher rates charged to all customers. It's a good year in transportation when you have a 8% margin at the end of the year. Prices go up.

-Supply chain disruptions. If you need Component A to make Widget B and component A is stuck in Shenzhen for 3 weeks extra and you run out, you now can't make and sell Widget B. Or maybe there was a lockdown that stopped production? Whatever. I know there's a semiconductor and chip shortage right now impacting auto manufacturers, computer makers, etc., and I don't recall what it's from. Something in Taiwan I think. Your competitors may all have the same problem. Now the supply of Widget B is low, and someone along the chain (maybe a distributor) can raise prices to help manage the demand. Prices go up.

-Raw material price increases: Lumber spiked massively and is still historically pretty high. My understanding is that there are plenty of trees, and plenty of demand, but not plenty of sawmills (again, not a prestigious job). Opening a new sawmill is a very expensive proposition for an industry that doesn't usually have massive amounts of cash on hand, and can take a couple of years (building/permitting/equipment ordering, lead time, install, hiring staff, training, etc.). Plastics are suffering some from the freeze in Texas in February. Apparently a lot of the pipes at the plants weren't designed for the cold we got, and cleaning out solidified plastic from pipes involves taking things apart. Oil prices are doing their thing, partly due to politics (oil pipeline from Canada bad, oil pipeline from Russia good, shrug). That always impacts everything. There's a drought (again) in some parts of the country, and the meat supply chain had a few disruptions last year (I have a few animals and am having to book butcher dates more than 12 months in advance). An article last week had a grocery store chain CEO forecasting a 10-14% price raise by Q4. Prices go up.

I'm sure there are more factors, but almost every industry or product gets touched by some or all of money, oil, international trade, trucking, and some type of raw material. There are a lot of things driving prices up.

Then wages have to go up to avoid people getting real pay cuts, and now money is worth less so prices have to go up again, and then we're back in the 1970s but with better haircuts and better cars.

I only really get US news on the economy, but I think at least some of these factors are going to be in play in the rest of the Anglosphere and the first-world economies.

Its not government spending, its supply and transportation if goods issues, as well as Saudi Arabia cutting oil supply at the WORST possible time.

 

[Parmandur]

$49.99 in 2014 dollars would be $57.37 today, and that is getting worse. Companies can only resist inflationary forces for so long.

 

[J-H]

By the way, how is it that the MSRP is $49.99, yet you can buy D&D books on Amazon for $30?
That really undercuts the FLGS.
I guess the siren song of Amazon volume is too good to resist.