D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

We have a relatively small house, and only one bathroom. The only way we could do it for me to completely isolate in the main bedroom except when I'm using the bathroom (and trying to clean that after every use is the definition of impractical given I'm an old man who used it a dozen times a day). If I do, in fact, have COVID, I've likely had it for at least a week at this point, so avoiding exposure has fled the building.

Were I more sure I'd probably try anyway, but at this point it involves doing backflips for what could just be a cold or allergies (and the local swings in weather are easily enough to encourage those). I don't entirely like it, but I have to pretty much just take a calculated risk here, since we're both vaccinated and boosted, and I can't find out for sure in any sane time frame.

Similar boat. I prepped one if the spare rooms as an isolation room. That was March 2020 though.

Friends in Houston wife got Covid husband and daughter dodged it with no special effort made.

 

[NotAYakk]

Oh, I didn't mean clean. Just air out; aerosol, not fomites.

I am unaware of a single documented touch-to-covid infection case, let alone an outbreak. I am aware of many airborn transmission cases, including one where a shared hallway let omicron pass from one person to another in a quarrentine hotel (only opened for meal delivery).

Checking science .. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) -- estimated 0.01% chance of catching it after touching a surface a Covid positive person coughed on. Hand hygiene may help, disinfecting surfaces basically useless. No definitive cases of actual fomite transmission have been found, some possible/likely.

So ya. Wash hands, wear masks (especially sick person), get HEPA filter for isolation room, air out shared rooms (lime bathrooms).

I spent a few days in a hospital during the pandemic; I slept in a mask, it wasn't too bad (wasn't great either). Only took it off to eat/drink.

But not doing this is also reasonable. I am just describing our plans really.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Omicron is about as infectious as Delta,

From The Lancet, Delta’s R0 was 7, Omicron’s was pegged at 10. The world’s most infectious disease- measles- has a R0 listed somewhere between 12-15.

 

[NotAYakk]

From The Lancet, Delta’s R0 was 7, Omicron’s was pegged at 10. The world’s most infectious disease- measles- has a R0 listed somewhere between 12-15.

From what I read, its faster spread is some combinstion of evading immunity and being more infectious and shorter incubation period.

But I haven't seen a strong claim of that r0. I ttied googling; failed. Do you have a reference?

 

[briggart]

A bit of anecdotal evidence of the rapid spread here in Italy. I turned out positive (luckily with no heavy symptoms, a bit of sore throat the first two-three days and then mostly dripping nose) to a PCR test at the local hospital on Dec 21st. I had an appointment, and ended up waiting in line for 45 minutes. Quarantine here is 21 days, but you can end it sooner if you have a negative test after at least 10 days with the last 3 symptoms free. Yesterday I took my second test, at the same hospital, and had to wait in line for more than 3 hours. Part of that is due to the holidays in between, but the nurse said they had a steady increase of demand for the last 2-3 weeks.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

From what I read, its faster spread is some combinstion of evading immunity and being more infectious and shorter incubation period.

But I haven't seen a strong claim of that r0. I ttied googling; failed. Do you have a reference?

I posted this link on Christmas Day:

This isn’t it, but this is from The Lancet.

Omicron variant and booster COVID-19 vaccines

On Dec 13, 2021, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed that a patient in England had died after contracting the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. The previous day, prime minister Boris Johnson launched a drive to offer all adults in the UK a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end...

www.thelancet.com

That puts it right on the heels of the measles.

Some more researchers are chiming in that it may be less dangerous than previous strains, but with its mutations, it looks like omicron is not affected by most of the monoclonal antibody products except GlaxoSmithKline’s.

The “money quote is:

The original strain of SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2·5, while the delta variant (B.1.617.2) has an R0 of just under 7. Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK), reckons omicron's R0 could be as high as 10.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

So here is hoping. We have battered down the hatches and are hoping to weather the wave. Based on SA and exponential geometry, this spike may be over in a month, and by then we'll learn how bad it is.

Still have my O2 concentrators in a box downstairs.

Here's hoping for sure, agreed.

(If you don't mind me being pedantic for a moment - it's "batten" the hatches. If you batter them down (like a door) you'd be busting them open. Battening them is putting in strips of wood that "locks" the hatches up tight so they stay shut and somewhat waterproof.)

 

[Zardnaar]

Various stories here hit harder than news reports. For the most part Covid here is in far away lands or the North Island.

No D&D and precautions are the day to day impact. Intellectually you know about it but it hasn't really hit home on a practical/personal level.

Downsides is it feeds into the anti vaxxer "it doesn't exist" type BS.

 

[NotAYakk]

Here's hoping for sure, agreed.

(If you don't mind me being pedantic for a moment - it's "batten" the hatches. If you batter them down (like a door) you'd be busting them open. Battening them is putting in strips of wood that "locks" the hatches up tight so they stay shut and somewhat waterproof.)

Obviously I meant "batter" as in egg flour and sugar.

Gotta deep fry them all.

/s

 

[Umbran]

It may be that Omicron is about as infectious as Delta, but infects most people with prior exposure (infection or vaccines) almost as if they had no resitance. (the exception being 3x exposed and 2x and recent mRNA/AZ/mRNA).

Oh, and has a 3 day lifecycle.

So, this is why epidemiologists has specific measures and not descriptive words like "as infectious as".

R0 is measured as the average number of other people a sick person will infect, if the population is unprotected. R0 is a measure before contingencies are applied, not after. So when they say Delta has an R0 of 5, and Omicron has an R0 of 10, that has a clear meaning. We layer on effectiveness of vaccines after that - the vaccines are pretty solid against Delta, and not as good against Omicron.