D&D and the rising pandemic

[Umbran]

Today with more like 1-to-1 production capacity vs likely opponents, the long-term outcome is far less certain.

The assertion was that we could no longer meet WWII production levels in steel. That is clearly inaccurate. I have proven that point.

So, are you trying to move the goalposts, or make a different point?

Please include how your answer is relevant, given the fact that modern warfare is not, and has not for decades, been about who can put the most armor in the field.

 

[Zardnaar]

The assertion was that we could no longer meet WWII production levels in steel. That is clearly inaccurate. I have proven that point.

So, are you trying to move the goalposts, or make a different point?

Please include how your answer is relevant, given the fact that modern warfare is not, and has not for decades, been about who can put the most armor in the field.

I said USA couldn't refight WW2. They might be able to do some things eg steel the book I read was several years ago.

But it depends on the types of steel as well there's multiple types 11 main ones iirc. Rebar isn't gonna work as armor.

It broke down a lot down to how, who and where the military recruits from, boots on ground, ammunition shortages in Iraq, how the war (WW2) was financed. The conclusion was modern USA could not redo WW2. The fundamentals aren't there anymore. Factories are gone, tax won't pay for it, debt levels to high.

Context of this thread do I need to point out the differences in vaccination rates? There's more weak points for crisis these days less ways to deal with a crisis.

One regional war can cripple Europe, one mild epidemic (by historical standards) results in trillions of economic damages.

Shortages of toilet paper, baby powder and face masks also come to mind. One meat plant breaks down or a baby formula factory has issues.

That's what I'm specifically talking about.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

A lot of that weakness in the USA is a currently oversized unwillingness/inability to act in unison for achieving greater goals…for a LOT of reasons.

In WW1 & WW2, Americans were very willing to make sacrifices to achieve victory. Ditto the vaccination efforts to combat polio.

But- like today’s situation illustrates very clearly- that’s a cyclical thing. That instinct waxes and wanes. As successful as we were with polio, it took a LOT of work to achieve similar headway with smallpox. Other pathogens we’ve made great strides against- like measles, syphillis and tuberculosis- have been resurgent the past few years.

Hopefully, we’ll get our act together again before we REALLY screw the pooch.

 

[Zardnaar]

A lot of that weakness in the USA is a currently oversized unwillingness/inability to act in unison for achieving greater goals…for a LOT of reasons.

In WW1 & WW2, Americans were very willing to make sacrifices to achieve victory. Ditto the vaccination efforts to combat polio.

But- like today’s situation illustrates very clearly- that’s a cyclical thing. That instinct waxes and wanes. As successful as we were with polio, it took a LOT of work to achieve similar headway with smallpox. Other pathogens we’ve made great strides against- like measles, syphillis and tuberculosis- have been resurgent the past few years.

Hopefully, we’ll get our act together again before we REALLY screw the pooch.

Not disagreeing. As another poster mentioned the wounds of Vietnam run deep. Can't disagree with that statement.

 

[Hussar]

I’d point out that in 1991, the US took on the worlds third largest armed forces and crushed it in a month or two.

That’s what happens is the US actually gets motivated.

 

[Rabulias]

I said USA couldn't refight WW2.

And that may be intentional. As @Umbran pointed out, modern warfare is not like WWII. It would be foolish to maintain readiness for such a war today.

 

[Maxperson]

We know the result.
Today with more like 1-to-1 production capacity vs likely opponents, the long-term outcome is far less certain. We also cannot rely on buying a year of time getting our pre-war armed forces clobbered while we tune up the Economic Miracle Machine to build replacements for everything.

We maintain the 3rd largest standing army in the world and outspend the 2nd place country on military spending by triple. Our military tech if it is not already the finest is among those at the top and we have a ginormous stockpile of top of the line military hardware to draw upon.

We have that year(and more) already stockpiled, and we have several weapons corporations that already have the means and would just love to make tons of money ramping up production.

 

[Umbran]

One regional war can cripple Europe, one mild epidemic (by historical standards) results in trillions of economic damages.

So, interesting history here.

A major reason the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 didn't have all the much of an economic impact on the US isn't that we were a sturdier economy - it was that we were in WWI at the time the pandemic began. About 6% of the labor force was in the armed forces, and 38% of the GDP of the US was government spending, and the government did not stop for the flu.

Much like the economic dislocation of covid-19 was short lived, largely due to government spending. Go figure.

Shortages of toilet paper, baby powder and face masks also come to mind. One meat plant breaks down or a baby formula factory has issues.

So, in reality, this is easily fixable. I have an example.

Back just after WWII, Toyota was in trouble. They needed to get their cars into the American market, but aside from ill-will after the war, their cars were expensive, and poor quality. So, the company knuckled down, innovated, and crated the basis of what we now call, "lean manufacturing."

Before this, car manufacturing (and indeed, most major manufacturing) was done on a yearly cycle - the "model year" is based in this. You had a design, you made a large number of them all at once, and then tried to sell them. Stuff you couldn't sell became inventory that didn't move.

Lean manufacturing notes that any inventory you don't need, either in supply or finished product, is a financial liability, and needs to be eliminated. They replaced the yearly cycle with "just in time" manufacturing, which led to using "just in time" supply. This, along with some other innovations in process, has rocketed Toyota into the top of automotive production and sales.

So, of course, everyone else has copied them, and everyone is using "just in time" supply.

Which, as you might guess, falls apart when the supply chain is disrupted.

Back at the beginning of the pandemic, folks may recall that it was nearly impossible to find a new car to purchase - the supply of computer chips was disrupted, so cars weren't getting made.

Except for, you guessed it, Toyota.

Back in 2011, there was a tsunami that hit Japan, and it did major damage to two industries - plastics (specifically for this example, the plastics used in creating the safety glass used in cars) and chip manufacture. And Toyota was hosed - the plastics industry rebounded quickly, but their computer chip supply took much longer.

So, there was a big company meeting, where they analyzed their supply chains, and noted which supplies are apt to bounce back quickly from disruption, and which were not, and started keeping inventory of computer chips and a few other things so that they can keep producing when supply is disrupted. So, when covid-19 hit, they could keep producing cars when others couldn't.

The problem is that the rest of the world only sloppily copies Toyota. They still grasp it as "inventory is a liability" and not "inventory that you don't need is a liability. Toyota needs that inventory as a hedge against disruption, so they keep it.

The problem isn't that the world is so connected. The problem is that in that connected world, corporate profit seeking is nearsighted. If corporations learn from their mistakes, they can build themselves a buffer against disruption.

 

[Ralif Redhammer]

I got my bivalent booster on Sunday. I was able to just go as a walk-in to a Rite Aid. I was mostly just tired and sore, though I didn't sleep well at all that night (but that's also taking into account a pulled muscle and two cats).

As far as the end of the world goes, I would cite Stantz and Hudson:

 

[Zardnaar]

I’d point out that in 1991, the US took on the worlds third largest armed forces and crushed it in a month or two.

That’s what happens is the US actually gets motivated.

30 years ago you had massive stockpiles of cold war era stuff.

So, interesting history here.

A major reason the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 didn't have all the much of an economic impact on the US isn't that we were a sturdier economy - it was that we were in WWI at the time the pandemic began. About 6% of the labor force was in the armed forces, and 38% of the GDP of the US was government spending, and the government did not stop for the flu.

Much like the economic dislocation of covid-19 was short lived, largely due to government spending. Go figure.



So, in reality, this is easily fixable. I have an example.

Back just after WWII, Toyota was in trouble. They needed to get their cars into the American market, but aside from ill-will after the war, their cars were expensive, and poor quality. So, the company knuckled down, innovated, and crated the basis of what we now call, "lean manufacturing."

Before this, car manufacturing (and indeed, most major manufacturing) was done on a yearly cycle - the "model year" is based in this. You had a design, you made a large number of them all at once, and then tried to sell them. Stuff you couldn't sell became inventory that didn't move.

Lean manufacturing notes that any inventory you don't need, either in supply or finished product, is a financial liability, and needs to be eliminated. They replaced the yearly cycle with "just in time" manufacturing, which led to using "just in time" supply. This, along with some other innovations in process, has rocketed Toyota into the top of automotive production and sales.

So, of course, everyone else has copied them, and everyone is using "just in time" supply.

Which, as you might guess, falls apart when the supply chain is disrupted.

Back at the beginning of the pandemic, folks may recall that it was nearly impossible to find a new car to purchase - the supply of computer chips was disrupted, so cars weren't getting made.

Except for, you guessed it, Toyota.

Back in 2011, there was a tsunami that hit Japan, and it did major damage to two industries - plastics (specifically for this example, the plastics used in creating the safety glass used in cars) and chip manufacture. And Toyota was hosed - the plastics industry rebounded quickly, but their computer chip supply took much longer.

So, there was a big company meeting, where they analyzed their supply chains, and noted which supplies are apt to bounce back quickly from disruption, and which were not, and started keeping inventory of computer chips and a few other things so that they can keep producing when supply is disrupted. So, when covid-19 hit, they could keep producing cars when others couldn't.

The problem is that the rest of the world only sloppily copies Toyota. They still grasp it as "inventory is a liability" and not "inventory that you don't need is a liability. Toyota needs that inventory as a hedge against disruption, so they keep it.

The problem isn't that the world is so connected. The problem is that in that connected world, corporate profit seeking is nearsighted. If corporations learn from their mistakes, they can build themselves a buffer against disruption.

That's a great story I've heard parts of it before about just in time inventory system. Seems Toyata learnt a lesson with tsunami.

Also like their cars they're super popular here.

When I was a kid small town or city had a small manufacturing or services. Eg hours has a small milk factory a d a call center for the (only) phone company.

Alot of that didn't survive the 80's. Now the milk factory is 3 hours north a d services half the south Island iirc.

Same with shoes, electronics or cars that's all gone. Horribly inefficient. If you wanted a new phone back then you smashed your old one as they wouldn't replace them and you couldn't buy one