D&D 5E Could D&D Die Again?

[mamba]

You figure that the majority of gamers out there are buying the new book every time it comes out to use? The sales certainly don't support that idea. The current player base is measured in the millions, but, I really don't think that WotC is banging out millions of copies of every single book they publish. Hundreds of thousands, maybe, but many millions? That would put them in Harry Potter level book sales.

Given that they release several adventures per year and it probably takes anywhere from 6 to 12 months to run a campaign, you do not really need to buy every one, even when all you do play are official adventures.

Add to that that only the DM needs to buy it while there then probably are on average 5 people using it (incl. the DM), which brings the number of sales down further.

So you basically have 10% of the player base buying an adventure, maybe, certainly nowhere close to all.

And that ignores that about half of players / DMs play homebrew and the other half might not limit themselves to WotC offers. So at that point you are really more in the 4-5% range.

Since WotC does not publish sales figures, we won't know how much they sold, but that range is a lot more realistic than your 'there are millions of players' baseline.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Given that they release several adventures per year and it probably takes anywhere from 6 to 12 months to run a campaign, you do not really need to buy every one, even when all you do play are official adventures.

Add to that that only the DM needs to buy it while there then probably are on average 5 people using it (incl. the DM), which brings the number of sales down further.

So you basically have 10% of the player base buying an adventure, maybe, certainly nowhere close to all.

And that ignores that about half of players / DMs play homebrew and the other half might not limit themselves to WotC offers. So at that point you are really more in the 4-5% range.

Since WotC does not publish sales figures, we won't know how much they sold, but that range is a lot more realistic than your 'there are millions of players' baseline.

small game store examples I have seen antidotally support this .

 

[Emrico]

i've played that boardgame
(bonupoints i bet more then 1 of you 'know' that game and it wont all be the same on)

Avalon Hill Civilization?

I remember a complete debacle of a game day years ago. Friend's wife (she HATED gaming and his gamer friends) was going to be gone from Saturday morning til Sunday afternoon. So he planned and invited our group of 8 or 10 players over for a game of Civ. Everyone arrives about 10am. Get everything set up and get the game going. Just as it's starting to move along nicely and everyone is into it, about 3pm, his wife comes home as plans were canceled and kicks everyone out.

We never let him schedule any games at his place ever again.

 

[Hussar]

what do you mean? evidence of how business' works?
or do you want evidence that I can see the future in a theory thread (spoiler none of us can see the future)

Evidence that Hasbro expects DnD to sell at current levels or even more.

 

[Hussar]

Given that they release several adventures per year and it probably takes anywhere from 6 to 12 months to run a campaign, you do not really need to buy every one, even when all you do play are official adventures.

Add to that that only the DM needs to buy it while there then probably are on average 5 people using it (incl. the DM), which brings the number of sales down further.

So you basically have 10% of the player base buying an adventure, maybe, certainly nowhere close to all.

And that ignores that about half of players / DMs play homebrew and the other half might not limit themselves to WotC offers. So at that point you are really more in the 4-5% range.

Since WotC does not publish sales figures, we won't know how much they sold, but that range is a lot more realistic than your 'there are millions of players' baseline.

I agree with everything you just said. I’m not sure, are you disagreeing with me somehow?

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Evidence that Hasbro expects DnD to sell at current levels or even more.

you got me... as some random dude on the internet I have not gotten a level of evidence beyond speculation and hear say.

 

[ECMO3]

Monopoly has been around well over 100 years and hasn't died (and is now owned by Hasbro). So my guess is D&D won't either.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Hero Quest has been dead for decades, and now it is enjoying a second life. I wonder if this has been possible because somebody got the idea reading in this forum.

The "death" of D&D now in its best time would be very strange, but maybe if:

- The prestige of the company is damaged by some scandal, for example a CEO was selling energon to the decepticons.

- The prestige of the brand damaged because it was not enoughly ideologically neutral.

- Loss of competitiveness. The players would rather to buy 3PPs because with the same money they get more lore and crunch. Or the players aren't interested into too many feats, subclasses, spells, magic items..or about lore could be read in the fandom wiki.

- Some horrible action by "rotten apples" destroying the prestige of the rest of the players. But here Hasbro could hire people to explain TTRPGs can be very good to learn social skills and other things.

- Failures to explain the reasons of the last reboot of the D&D multiverse after some special event.

 

[Umbran]

The sooner that happens, the sooner the game becomes driven by the gamers instead of the stock holders.

This would come of better if you had any evidence that stockholder feedback has had any direct impact on game design. Game design is driven by desire for profit, sure, but not by "stockholders".

We'll say what goes on at table without some new "product" contradicting us.

Given how many people here have successful homebrew campaigns that deviate from published rules in innumerable ways, it seems to me this is less a reality, and more a rhetorical boogeyman targeting fear of loss of control

No longer will professional designers tell us how to run our games.

They don't, and haven't.

We can mold new players into our ways of playing without mainstream culture polluting their mindsets.

"We can mold our new players into OUR ways..."

You realize that sounds about as insidious as corporate control, don't you?

Shouldn't the ideal be allowing players to find their own fun, without anyone "molding" them at all?

 

[Clint_L]

Monopoly has been around well over 100 years and hasn't died (and is now owned by Hasbro). So my guess is D&D won't either.

Plus, D&D is actually a good game.