D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Not even for revenue. Plenty of critical darlings flop. And we have billion dollar franchises with mediocre critic scores.

Those are outliers. There's a substantial data set on this, which I believe has been shared on ENWorld multiple times when this chestnut comes up.

If studios didn't think reviews mattered, they wouldn't spend the money to cut new trailers touting them.

 

[Mistwell]

I'm looking at the numbers and crunched out 30, 50 and 70% fall offs.

It's looking marginal at 30% 70% is a wipe out.

The box office numbers are all downhill from here.

Crunch the numbers yourself. 70 million, 35, 17, 8 that's around 50% over 4 weeks.

Do it at 30% 70% etc.

Idk John Wicks falloff but it was over 50% iirc. 30% is an optimistic number.

I've been meaning to say this for a while but I think it's finally time to talk about it: You're using an extremely outdated formula which has not been accurate since literally before the pandemic but which truly disappeared during the pandemic. It's time to stop. Or at least admit that's not how this industry functions anymore.

A large portion of the money which comes from movies comes from streaming these days. Even if it is released in the theater, and even if it is in the theater for four weeks or more, still a very large portion comes from streaming later.

You're not counting any streaming monies though. You're still operating off the "first four weeks in theater" formula. Which is antiquated in that industry. It's not what any entertainment industry analysis uses anymore and hasn't for years now.

It's why "$30m opening weekend" was slated as "success" for this movie but you cannot figure out how that could be based on budget and marketing. It's because you've left out a massive chunk of their expected revenue - and I don't mean like "DVD and Rental" revenue I mean the sum they will be paid for streaming. Maybe it will be on Paramount + and maybe some other platform, we don't know even when it will be released on streaming. But we do know it's a big important number to the studio for revenue from this film, and it's one you've excluded from your formula.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I would bet on this being on Paramount+, which Paramount still seems committed to pouring their efforts into. The movie is already for pre-sale on iTunes and Amazon, though.

 

[Zardnaar]

I would bet on this being on Paramount+, which Paramount still seems committed to pouring their efforts into. The movie is already for pre-sale on iTunes and Amazon, though.

Idk if they will get much money via streaming though since Paramount has already funded half the movie.

 

[bedir than]

Idk if they will get much money via streaming though since Oaramount has already funded half the movie.

Paramount would then measure in signups, extensions and drop rate.

 

[Zardnaar]

I've been meaning to say this for a while but I think it's finally time to talk about it: You're using an extremely outdated formula which has not been accurate since literally before the pandemic but which truly disappeared during the pandemic. It's time to stop. Or at least admit that's not how this industry functions anymore.

A large portion of the money which comes from movies comes from streaming these days. Even if it is released in the theater, and even if it is in the theater for four weeks or more, still a very large portion comes from streaming later.

You're not counting any streaming monies though. You're still operating off the "first four weeks in theater" formula. Which is antiquated in that industry. It's not what any entertainment industry analysis uses anymore and hasn't for years now.

It's why "$30m opening weekend" was slated as "success" for this movie but you cannot figure out how that could be based on budget and marketing. It's because you've left out a massive chunk of their expected revenue - and I don't mean like "DVD and Rental" revenue I mean the sum they will be paid for streaming. Maybe it will be on Paramount + and maybe some other platform, we don't know even when it will be released on streaming. But we do know it's a big important number to the studio for revenue from this film, and it's one you've excluded from your formula.

I think people over value steaming though and it's very hard to quantify and we don't have access to the figures anyway.

And I'm guessing a big hit movie is still gonna get more money from a streaming service. For all we know Oaramount has already git the rights to streaming via paying for half the movie.

Apparently if you want a hit movie on streaming theatrical release still matters as well.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Idk if they will get much money via streaming though since Oaramount has already funded half the movie.

Different divisions. Paramount+ definitely pays Paramount's movie distribution division for content it provides, as do other streamers who have divisions that create their own content.

This has been the subject of plenty of articles in the past, especially regarding Disney.

 

[Zardnaar]

Paramount would then measure in signups, extensions and drop rate.

First clicks apparently. This guy's pretty good in terms of how things work.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

It is now but pre Switch/Wii Mario wasn't so big outside of America.

This is very true and it often shocks Americans. I was a wealthy video-game-obsessed kid in the UK in the 80s and 90s, and I didn't even see a NES in person until long after the SNES, like 1992 or something. They weren't even consistently on sale in the shops, whereas the Master System and later Mega Drive (Genesis) were. The SNES was fairly successful but only a fraction as successful as Mega Drive. Then the N64 was utterly eclipsed by the Playstation, the Gamecube was barely a blip, and only with the Wii did Nintendo gain any prominence again.

 

[Zardnaar]

This is very true and it often shocks Americans. I was a wealthy video-game-obsessed kid in the UK in the 80s and 90s, and I didn't even see a NES in person until long after the SNES, like 1992 or something. They weren't even consistently on sale in the shops, whereas the Master System and later Mega Drive (Genesis) were. The SNES was fairly successful but only a fraction as successful as Mega Drive. Then the N64 was utterly eclipsed by the Playstation, the Gamecube was barely a blip, and only with the Wii did Nintendo gain any prominence again.

Yup Nintendo got smashed in most parts of the world and even in USA dropped to 2 or 3.

SNES was kinda rare here. Everyone had Megadrive. Couldn't even buy it locally had to go to city, hire one. Mate got his sent to him via Australia.

The NES kid I knew had been to Japan so I saw one 89 iirc.
Wii got the numbers wasn't well regarded so it's mostly Switch.

I think Sega won in Europe iirc and most parts of the world. Nintendo won in numbers due to Japan and USA. Even then they went from 85-90% market share to around half iirc.

Think before D&D came out I said something like it will do better domestically than worldwide.