D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

Zardnaar

Legend
In an effort to be helpful and constructive, here are some numbers either confirmed or stated by industry members, and what they could mean for HAT streaming success (yes, some of these are repeats):
  1. production cost was about $150 million
  2. Paramount marketing was about $60 million
  3. so total cost was at least $210 million
  4. global box office was about $208 million
  5. typical studio share is estimated at about 50%
  6. one of the Star Wars sequels yielded the studios a what is considered radically high 65%
  7. this gives a range of box office for the studios: $104 million to $135.2 million
  8. total cost minus the above share gives a range of: $74.8 million to $106 million in deficit
So, streaming needs to net $74.8 million to $106 million to break even and start turning a profit, assuming there are no unmentioned costs. Using Amazon as a price source:
  1. starting May 2nd, digital purchase was $25, digital rental was $20; prices remained stable for 21 days
  2. prices then changed to $20 digital purchase, $6 digital rental
  3. some time in the last 15-45 days (I don't check often so I don't know exactly when, and my google-fu isn't great) the digital purchase price dropped to $10
What we don't know:
  1. what % of streaming is on Amazon as compared to Paramount+
  2. what % of Amazon streaming revenue goes to the studios
  3. what % of streaming is purchase or rental
  4. how many views per day
For best case scenario, I am assuming 100% of revenue to the studios, and 100% of streaming is by rental (since each view would yield revenue).

Using the above assumptions at 100K views per day:

100K x $20 x 21 days = $42 million
100K x $6 x 126 days (current minus initial 3 weeks) = $75.6 million
$42 million + $75.6 million = $117.6 million
$117.6 million - $74.8 million = $42.8 million profit
$117.6 million - $106 million = $11.6 million profit

So, under the above assumptions, it would be likely for HAT to have turned a slight profit to-date. If the studios get less share of the revenue, or the streaming is much less, then the movie might not yet have reached profitable status. Similarly, if the streaming is much more, HAT may have turned a significant profit.

This also depends on revenue and profit margin from disc sales, which I am not comfortable estimating without a good idea of the profit margin.

If anyone can find streaming numbers for any top 10 movies, please share for better estimation.

More things like this.

 

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HAT's problem is that it was too expensive for what it is. It's a good movie, but it does not look like an EXPENSIVE movie. Consider the cast: Pine, Rodriguez and Grant where good and all, but other, less expensive actors could have been equally good. Page was the stand-out, and he was probably not paid as much as those others. And those blink-and-you-miss-them English location shoots? They weren't really necessary. I'm pretty sure you could have found similar locations in Northern Ireland, or use digital sets equally effectively. I don't think any were not digitally tampered with.
 

Ferrousbones

Artificer
agreed, but those assumptions are overly optimistic, as you are probably aware of
Indeed. I figured starting from the best case (even if likely impossible) scenario, but since I didn't know viewership numbers, I had to guess there.
Best case is probably something like 70/30 in favor of the studio, the ratio that Steam, Apple etc. have a share when selling software / music / ...
I agree for viewership on Amazon etc., but I since we don't know the breakdown of viewership between platforms...
More things like this.

Elemental received 26.4 million views in its first five days of streaming, making it "the most watched movie premiere of the year on Disney+ and among its Top 10 movie premieres of all time."
Ok, so just over 5 million views per day makes the top 10 premiers of all time for Disney+. As far as I know, they have the highest viewership among streaming, so that at least helps set our upper bound for premiers.

Now if we can just get viewership numbers on at least 1 of the top 10 lists presented, since the context seems to be current streaming leaders.
 

Jaeger

That someone better
agreed, but those assumptions are overly optimistic, as you are probably aware of
I agree for viewership on Amazon etc.,

As I posted earlier in the thread: Amazon takes Half.

If Amazon takes half; it is likely that other VOD providers are similar.


Using the above assumptions at 100K views per day:

100K x $20 x 21 days = $42 million
100K x $6 x 126 days (current minus initial 3 weeks) = $75.6 million
$42 million + $75.6 million = $117.6 million
$117.6 million - $74.8 million = $42.8 million profit
$117.6 million - $106 million = $11.6 million profit

So, under the above assumptions, it would be likely for HAT to have turned a slight profit to-date. If the studios get less share of the revenue, or the streaming is much less, then the movie might not yet have reached profitable status. Similarly, if the streaming is much more, HAT may have turned a significant profit.

Under you assumptions with the studios receiving a more realistic 50% of revenue: HaT has only made: $58.8 million. (VOD/Streaming)

$58.8 million - $74.8 million = $16 million loss.
$58.8 million - $106 million = $47.2 million loss.

A more conservative estimate that paints a more likely picture of the current situation.

WotC has access to the real numbers, and they didn't do a $25 million write-down on the film for no reason.


Now if we can just get viewership numbers on at least 1 of the top 10 lists presented, since the context seems to be current streaming leaders.

Good luck with that. ;)

These lists have been consistently presented with no context, or metrics as to how they translate into actual revenue earned.
 
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