In an effort to be helpful and constructive, here are some numbers either confirmed or stated by industry members, and what they could mean for HAT streaming success (yes, some of these are repeats):
- production cost was about $150 million
- Paramount marketing was about $60 million
- so total cost was at least $210 million
- global box office was about $208 million
- typical studio share is estimated at about 50%
- one of the Star Wars sequels yielded the studios a what is considered radically high 65%
- this gives a range of box office for the studios: $104 million to $135.2 million
- total cost minus the above share gives a range of: $74.8 million to $106 million in deficit
So, streaming needs to net $74.8 million to $106 million to break even and start turning a profit, assuming there are no unmentioned costs. Using Amazon as a price source:
- starting May 2nd, digital purchase was $25, digital rental was $20; prices remained stable for 21 days
- prices then changed to $20 digital purchase, $6 digital rental
- some time in the last 15-45 days (I don't check often so I don't know exactly when, and my google-fu isn't great) the digital purchase price dropped to $10
What we don't know:
- what % of streaming is on Amazon as compared to Paramount+
- what % of Amazon streaming revenue goes to the studios
- what % of streaming is purchase or rental
- how many views per day
For best case scenario, I am assuming 100% of revenue to the studios, and 100% of streaming is by rental (since each view would yield revenue).
Using the above assumptions at 100K views per day:
100K x $20 x 21 days = $42 million
100K x $6 x 126 days (current minus initial 3 weeks) = $75.6 million
$42 million + $75.6 million = $117.6 million
$117.6 million - $74.8 million = $42.8 million profit
$117.6 million - $106 million = $11.6 million profit
So, under the above assumptions, it would be likely for HAT to have turned a slight profit to-date. If the studios get less share of the revenue, or the streaming is much less, then the movie might not yet have reached profitable status. Similarly, if the streaming is much more, HAT may have turned a significant profit.
This also depends on revenue and profit margin from disc sales, which I am not comfortable estimating without a good idea of the profit margin.
If anyone can find streaming numbers for any top 10 movies, please share for better estimation.