mamba
Legend
do you have any numbers? I was looking for Paramount / Paramount+ but found nothing. Netflix seems to pay a flat rate, so that would be your worst case scenario.
-
NOW LIVE! Into the Woods--new character species, eerie monsters, and haunting villains to populate the woodlands of your D&D games.
D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?
- Thread starter Zardnaar
- Start date
bedir than
Full Moon Storyteller
I haven't seen numbers yet.
Netflix did spend 400million to buy the Knives Out franchise. They don't pay a flat rate.
It'll be some fun Hollywood Math to have Paramount+ pay Paramount Pictures in order to make CBSViacom the most money -- it'll be based on estimated new subscribers and estimated renewals with a side of "Do want this to be a franchise?"
mamba
Legend
that is a flat rate, i.e. it is not a percentage of whatever they make from it
bedir than
Full Moon Storyteller
aha!
Zardnaar
Legend
Knives out made more money at a fraction of the cost.
It was also in a link I provided earlier ots one of the highest amounts paid.
Presumably its going to Paramount so they're robbing Peter to pay Paul in effect. There's no third party ponying up 100 million+.
Zardnaar
Legend
For whatever reason this popped up in my mind, but the director of the 2016 Ghostbusters reboot (which had a similar budget as the D&D movie, around $150 million) made a comment on what that movie had to make at the box office to break even in an article:
Paul Feig Wades Into the Gender Wars With His Ghostbusters Reboot
With good intentions, he swears.www.vulture.com
"As opening day approaches, Feig can’t help but think about the stakes of making a $150 million movie. “A movie like this has to at least get to like $500 million worldwide, and that’s probably low,” he says."
$500 million is a lowball estimate for how much a $150 million blockbuster needs to make.
Sony did eventually decide to make another Ghostbusters movie, but Ghostbusters Afterlife was a much lower budget film (only $75 million) and tried making a direct sequel to the original 2 films instead of a remake. Sony also owns the Ghostbusters franchise and stands to make money off of merchandise sales, unlike the D&D movie where only one of the production companies gets merchandise sales.
Yup they probably spend around 75-100 million promoting it.
From somewhat reliable sources I've seen 375 million needed. Others are throwing around 100 million spent on marketing.
deganawida
Legend
Oh hey fellow Taurus! Yeah, my kids declared it my birthday present after I suggested it (birthday is next Saturday).
Early happy birthday to you!
CommodoreKong
Adventurer
One important thing to note about Knives Edge franchise is Netflix was paying for production for 2 movies plus extra to make up for the fact they wouldn't be going to theaters (as as far as I know blu-ray/VOD/TV) so they were paying a premium for Knives Out 2 and 3.
One interesting guess on streaming/VOD/TV revenue is the industry trade magazine Deadline. They do a yearly most valuable blockbuster and biggest box office bombs article where they include estimates on how much a movie will eventually make when all is said and done. Of course it's not going to be 100% accurate but still worth a look as Deadline has very close ties to the industry and they're often where we get information on film budgets from.
One of the closest films in terms of box office I found in their 2022 version was the movie Lightyear.
Lightyear made around 226 million at the box office and they estimate it's going to make around $150 million between DVD/Blu-Ray/TV rights/Streaming/VOD.
The whole series is fairly interesting if you like the film business. The 2022 most valuable blockbuster summary can be found here.
The most relevant takeaway from that list should be that unless you have real data, you have absolutely no idea what a movie's expenses are besides the published budget. In their list of successful movies, marketing costs are anywhere from 40% to 3x the budget. Anyone going by an estimate or "rule of thumb" to say how much DADHAT needs to make to be a hit or flop is just making stuff up.
mamba
Legend
I agree, I do assume that if you narrow your range to movies with a production cost of 100-200M, that marketing cost range will shrink significantly however.
There will probably still be some rare outliers, but that still means you can have a relatively good idea of the HAT marketing cost instead of having a range from 0.4 to 3.0
So while ultimately you do not know whether it breaks even at 400M or 450M (or even 500M), but you do know it won’t be 300 or 700…
Similar Threads
