D&D (2024) Jeremy Crawford: “We are releasing new editions of the books”

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Are you saying that because party mix and encounter mix vary so wildly, that there can be no guidelines?

For GMs of LevelUp or other 5E clones... do those rules get CR right for encounter design?
No idea. I mostly base my encounters on what makes sense to be where the players went. I don't really use CR.
 




I think you're correct in saying that there needs to be less variability for CR to work better. The problem I see with that is that it is really hard to give unique, fun abilities to classes and accomplish that goal. I think that the cure would likely be less fun than the illness.
it might be, which is why I wrote that this might not be better / wanted.

It’s a matter of what your goals are, encounter math that actually works reasonable well, with the costs this brings -> the PF2 direction. Bounded accuracy and monsters being applicable for a wider range of levels -> slight improvements to the 5e math, but it will never be precise
 



While I am typically critical of WotC not taking advantage of all the available tools we have these days, I do think that a robust statistical analysis system is fairly beyond their budget and expertise.

They should be better at CR than they are, and it's possible to build a tool that cam analyze things, but I don't consider it a mark against them that they're relying on simpler, fuzzier methods in this case.
 


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