UngeheuerLich
Legend
Yeah. I admit it was a bit unclear if you just read the post.
D&D (2024) D&D Pre-orders; this is sad
- Thread starter TheAlkaizer
- Start date
Micah Sweet
Level Up & OSR Enthusiast
Remathilis
Legend
Counterpoint: WotC has two different Magic the Gathering clients: MTGO and Arena. Both had almost no crossover with paper Magic, sell cards you cannot get in paper (Reserve list and Alchemy) and both have been pushed by WotC as an alternative to paper Magic. If you wish to play your deck in each, you have to buy or grind to get cards on each platform. Further, Arena is a closed ecosystem that does not allow buy/sell/trade for cards, so 100% of all Arena purchases go to WotC alone. It was heralded as the death of paper Magic.This isn't how demand actually works.
Say WotC makes 50% profit on a book sale.
Say they make closer to 80% profit on a sale of a month of DDB subscription.
Now, every time someone buys a book instead of buying a DDB subscription, WotC makes less money off of them. This could even be true if the DDB subscription is cheaper than a book sale. Fewer raw $ coming in from books than from DDB.
So the thing a profit-seeking company is going to do is drive everyone to DDB subscriptions. Give incentives for them. Design for them. Funnel people in that direction. Set up the flow of dollars so they flow more to DDB. If the subscriptions cannibalize the book sales, they make more money without having to make a better product.
If that effort is successful enough, we could see the books getting worse. Because they're not as protifable, see. So why invest in high quality print runs or big glossy artwork or expensive binding? They're not worth as much money, it's fine if they're not great products - better, even, since that'll drive as many people as possible to DDB.
And maybe then WotC books get a reputation for being trash, or for just including reprints of the stuff you already get online, or for being superfluous to the D&D experience when the online subscription gives you so much.
And maybe they keep publishing books for a while out of a vague sense of obligation or because there's enough grognards who buy cheap books to keep a thin trickle of money coming in. Or maybe they stop because really the books aren't great these days and everyone plays online anyway, well everyone who matters, anyway, everyone who spends money on the most profitable products, anyway.
I don't think we're really there today (books are still the main thing), or really on the path, but I do think we could be there in 5-10 years, if the pressure to monetize is there, and if the people sitting in decision-making seats get super into maximizing profitability for D&D specifically. And, maybe crucially, if the online product isn't tooooooo trash.
And WotC still keeps selling cardboard. It's their primary product line. Every card, every draft, every commander deck. Paper.
Now, WotC could push paper Magic into a 100% collector format and triple down on Arena as the primary play method. But they haven't. They want you cracking packs. And if you can't or won't, they will gladly sell you Arena. Heck, why not both?
Which is why I think the predictions of VTT only D&D in five years is ludicrous. If they were going to go all digital, MTG would be the better cash cow. And they haven't pulled the trigger yet. So I think a lot of the doom and gloom is premature. However, if you see WotC pushing people away from paper Magic to Arena, all bets are off.
(For what it's worth: Arena has been giving away exclusive cosmetics like card sleeves, avatars, and card art for preorders for a while now as well).
Parmandur
Book-Friend, he/him
As someone who only gets physical books, I am sanguine about the hobby evolving.
Bah! You young whippersnappers and your fancy pants buggies! Back in my day we had to walk uphill both ways!
KYRON45
Hero
Without GPS? Yours really was the greatest generation.
Bacon Bits
Legend
I have to say I find this thread really hilarious. When I reacted negatively to how heavily marketed and tiered the Kickstarter was on the DC20 KS, the general response was, "No, no, that's totally normal for Kickstarter. It shouldn't bother you at all."
"Oh, but it's digital and that makes it COMPLETELY different."
No, it doesn't. Digital assets were completely different 25 years ago. Digital assets are not remotely controversial in 2024. Home video games and home movies are now all digitally delivered. So is nearly all software. It's weird for a home computer or a workstation to have an optical drive these days.
Secondly, if you don't want or like the digital bonuses, what's the problem? Were you hoping your pre-order would get you a tangible and lasting benefit that nobody else could benefit from? Isn't that worse?
And I'll point out that WotC, even with their relatively bad software record, still has a much better delivery rate than crowd funded projects do.
As long as there's no bonus content in the pre-release edition, it's basically fine.
"Oh, but it's digital and that makes it COMPLETELY different."
No, it doesn't. Digital assets were completely different 25 years ago. Digital assets are not remotely controversial in 2024. Home video games and home movies are now all digitally delivered. So is nearly all software. It's weird for a home computer or a workstation to have an optical drive these days.
Secondly, if you don't want or like the digital bonuses, what's the problem? Were you hoping your pre-order would get you a tangible and lasting benefit that nobody else could benefit from? Isn't that worse?
And I'll point out that WotC, even with their relatively bad software record, still has a much better delivery rate than crowd funded projects do.
As long as there's no bonus content in the pre-release edition, it's basically fine.
That's right! We had to navigate by the stars. We couldn't no shiny "sun" so it was always dark. And we liked it!
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