D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[Dire Bare]

D&D 5E was already growing by double digits before Stranger Things or COVID. Besides, is ST really a great advertisement? Nerdy kids playing in their parent's basement is just reinforcing the trope that it's not for everyone. A lot of things contributed to 5E's ongoing success, and I don't expect a second boom. I just get tired of this repeated canard that the playtests and resulting rules, presentation, pace of supplements, basically everything WotC did had nothing to do with it.

While, yes, D&D was growing significantly before Stranger Things and also Critical Role . . . YES, Stranger Things is a great advertisement for the game. Being nerdy isn't feared and avoided anymore, like it was in the 80s and a lot of folks of all ages IDENTIFY with Mike, Dustin, Lucas, and Will. I know a lot of my middle-school students, since Stranger Things debuted in 2016, correlate Stranger Things with D&D.

It's likely D&D would be super big today without the help of Stranger Things . . . but it did help and was (still is) a good advertisement for the game.

 

[Daztur]

I don't think that WotC is banking on the new edition per se. I think that they are banking on the digital ecosystem and licensing that they do around that new edition.

Yeah and I think 5.5e is really make or break for that. I can imagine subscribing to the online tools if they play a number of different system with 5.5e just being part of the rotation with CoC and BitD or what have you. For the online tools to really make the big bucks they need a dedicated audience of people who have at least one 5.5e game going at least constantly, which is a lot bigger commitment then buying a 5.5e PHB. I'm pretty sure the 5.5e PHB will sell well, I'm much less sure on them raking in money on online tools.

 

[Daztur]

I worry that because of Hasbro's mentality, they're expecting huge things from 5.5e and everything surrounding it.

So that if it does anything other than 'spectacular', the execs up top will decide that DnD isn't as good as they hoped and start moving the brand onto life support.

'Good' isn't enough for these people. They need endless forever growth for them to consider it worth it.

Honestly after seeing what their great expectations for D&D accomplished, moving the brand onto life support would probably be for the best for the hobby.

But I don't see it, D&D has enough name recognition to make more computer games, Lego, and all the rest.

 

[Clint_L]

D&D was growing (slowly) for some time, with COVID giving it a big bump (and recognition via Stranger Things), but I think that boom is over and though I expect a small bump with the books releases, I think we'll D&D popularity on a decline. Crossing my fingers it will level off and we'll continue to get books & such for years but I think we're past the heyday.

This is a bit of a myth. 5e has hugely exceeded sales projections since launch, and from what we've seen of sales data Covid didn't slow that, but it didn't accelerate it either. It's hard to determine exactly what is behind 5e's success. My hypothesis is that it is the combination of Gen-Xers getting old enough to get back into or (much more significantly) encourage their kids to play, and 5e being a version that was well designed to push nostalgia buttons while being arguably the easiest version to learn.

As far as the new books sales go, the strategy (we've been told) is to try to maintain 5e's base and continue to grow the game, so I'm not expecting a massive spike in sales. And, in any case, book sales aren't the big prize that Hasbro is looking for.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Magic: the Gathering is Hasbro's blue-eyed girl but D&D is the best option for a multimedia franchise because this allows lots of different stories with its own style.

I guess Hasbro wants to make money with the licences.

 

[Peter BOSCO'S]

I worry that because of Hasbro's mentality, they're expecting huge things from 5.5e and everything surrounding it.

So that if it does anything other than 'spectacular', the execs up top will decide that DnD isn't as good as they hoped and start moving the brand onto life support.

'Good' isn't enough for these people. They need endless forever growth for them to consider it worth it.

Yes, every quarter must not only be better than that quarter last year, it must be better than that quarter in every year ever. Welcome to late stage capitalism, American style.

 

[Scribe]

The market of D&D players has grown significantly from where we started in 2014, but I also don't think we're likely to beat the best sales years either. Of course we won't know because they don't release that kind of info, nor do I expect them to.

If it's a hit, they will say so.

 

[Zardnaar]

no, there is no way it can sell less, unless you win on a technicality like 2014 being released in February and 2024 in November. If you look at the first 12 months of sales, it is impossible

Not impossible just very unlikely imho.

I suspect the peaks already passed. Books should sell more first year than last year of 2014 sales.

DDI is the great unknown. Crash and burn or milk the whales idk.

 

[mamba]

Not impossible just very unlikely imho.

sure, not literally impossible just so unlikely that impossible is the closest approximation

I suspect the peaks already passed. Books should sell more first year than last year of 2014 sales.

it was sales of the 2014 version in the year 2014 (not 2024…) vs the 2024 version in the year 2024 - and I take year as the 12 months after the release date, not the calendar year

I mean compare 2014 sales in 2014 to 2024 sales in 2024.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

Admittedly, Dungeons & Dragons is a much bigger business today than it was 10 years ago. And it has a larger fanbase and a larger pool of radiance in which to fish for potential buyers for the new rulebooks. That could mean Hasbro will get a bigger lift this time around than last time.

Rich Smith, you sly sly dog.

Glad to see that I wasn't the only one who laughed at that line.