D&D 5E (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[FrogReaver]

Sure. All I'm saying is that IF this release is a success, we will be told as much.

They’ll spin it as a success either way.

 

[Scribe]

They’ll spin it as a success either way.

Maybe, but this stuff needs to be reported on at some level when the books are reviewed. They cannot cook it too much.

 

[FrogReaver]

Maybe, but this stuff needs to be reported on at some level when the books are reviewed. They cannot cook it too much.

They just don’t separate out d&d.

 

[Scribe]

They just don’t separate out d&d.

I think an omission of the newest release of the most successful version, as a point of interest would be telling enough.

 

[FrogReaver]

I think an omission of the newest release of the most successful version, as a point of interest would be telling enough.

No omission needed. It should immediately sale more than the 2014 PHB currently is, even if 50% or more of current 2014 players never convert. That’s a quarter over quarter boost. And also a year over year boost.

That kind of blurb is all they need. But that won’t indicate whether it’s on pace to outperform 2014 PHB in any sensible metric.

 

[mamba]

that won’t indicate whether it’s on pace to outperform 2014 PHB in any sensible metric.

what do you consider outperforming? If 2014 say sold 500k copies in its first 12 months and 2024 sold 800k, would you consider that 2024 outperforming 2014?

On an unrelated note, do we have any idea how many PHB were printed?

 

[FrogReaver]

what do you consider outperforming? If 2014 say sold 500k copies in its first 12 months and 2024 sold 800k, would you consider that 2024 outperforming 2014?

Yes. But its entirely possible that does not happen. Maybe not likely, but there is a sizable segment that say they aren’t going to buy 2024, so there’s a path for it.

On an unrelated note, do we have any idea how many PHB were printed?

I don’t.

 

[TiQuinn]

Yes. But its entirely possible that does not happen. Maybe not likely, but there is a sizable segment that say they aren’t going to buy 2024, so there’s a path for it.

There's a vocal segment but we don't know how sizable it is yet.

 

[Oofta]

There's a vocal segment but we don't know how sizable it is yet.

Good chance we'll never know. Even if we could get our hands on copies of physical books, we don't know about sales on DDB and likely won't know sales for other VTTs either. Sales from Amazon are a decent indicator, but it's just one sales channel.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

And this time the translations will be published by WotC itself. This means sales in no-English-speaker markets.

OK, we can agree D&D is a leviathan within TTRPG market but a little fish for the videogame indstruy, but important videogame franchises started with relatively humble titles. And BG3 has helped a lot to open new doors.

Other point is D&D multiverse allows total creative freedom to try revival or reimagination of forgotten IPs. For example Glow worm, a preschool toy, could be recycled like a new domain of delight in a hipotetical future Witchlight setting. (And later to be sold like backpacks in Fortnite). A spin-off of my little pony also could be a domain of delight.

Other companies from the entertaiment industry could try D&D like a jumping plataform to revitalize "old glories" or promote their own franchises (for example a new manga serie) in the Western market.

D&D is not only about throwing dices and calculating hit points. Even when a solo person is creating her homemade setting she is also playing D&D in other way. Some players are interested into showing their own ideas and creations, and WotC should offer the right digital tools.

* One of the next necessary steps by WotC is an update of d20 Modern. Or Everyday Heroes by Evil Genius Games to be "licenced" int D&D-Beyond (if they are publishing more books this should mean their sales are good).