D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[Hussar]

5.5e will sell. I expect most people who play 5.0 will eventually switch, especially once a new book comes out adding in (most of) the missing subclasses or meaningful equivalents.

But 5.5e won't outdo 5.0. That's what this is saying. It's treading water financially, staving off decline, not growing things further. Other stuff will have to fill that in.

My expectation is that we will start hearing rumors of a true, proper 6e in about four years, public playtesting will begin sometime around a year or two later, and we'll have actual published books two or three years after that. So, all told, somewhere between seven and ten years from now.

People swore 4e's Essentials line would make it evergreen. It didn't. People swore 5.0 would be evergreen, only needing small/slow, iterative updates. It wasn't. People are now swearing 5.5e will be evergreen, getting only iterative updates. I'm about as convinced of that as I was of the previous attempts.

Hang on.

5e is evergreen. Good grief, a rules update after ten years that allows you to keep using most of the stuff you bought? Yeah that’s as evergreen as it gets.

 

[TiQuinn]

Evergreen is a term made for goal post shifting because what does it mean? Never another version? Always going to be popular? Always going to be played? A true strawman.

 

[Oofta]

Declining sale via book scan and widespread lack of excitement online.

Many people may be waiting for the 2024 version or just getting the rules online via DDB or one of the current VTTs. It may be slowing down because nothing grows forever, we simply don't have data to know one way or another. As far as haters, that's always been a thing.

 

[Oofta]

Evergreen is a term made for goal post shifting because what does it mean? Never another version? Always going to be popular? Always going to be played? A true strawman.

Let's remember that when they published 5E they thought they were going to publish a few books and then basically shut the lights off of the book side of the business. The editions success caught everyone by surprise.

On the other hand this is one of the more minor changes in the history of D&D, it's about as evergreen as it gets.

 

[TiQuinn]

Let's remember that when they published 5E they thought they were going to publish a few books and then basically shut the lights off of the book side of the business. The editions success caught everyone by surprise.

On the other hand this is one of the more minor changes in the history of D&D, it's about as evergreen as it gets.

It’s still a term designed to be shifted and not useful. Even you qualifying it with “as it gets” shows that.

 

[Oofta]

It’s still a term designed to be shifted and not useful. Even you qualifying it with “as it gets” shows that.

And ... as I said ... the last time they used the phrase they literally thought it was the last set of books they would ever publish for financial reasons so they put the best spin on it they could. They didn't lie about anything, they were mistaken about the future. There's a huge difference.

Oh, and you don't get to define what evergreen means for everyone.

 

[TiQuinn]

And ... as I said ... the last time they used the phrase they literally thought it was the last set of books they would ever publish for financial reasons so they put the best spin on it they could. They didn't lie about anything, they were mistaken about the future. There's a huge difference.

Okay since you’re going to be rude…who cares? It’s irrelevant.

Oh, and you don't get to define what evergreen means for everyone.

I didn’t. I’m giving my opinion. Chill out maybe.

And by the way, you responded to me first. If you don’t like what I have to say, you can not respond.

 

[Daztur]

Let's remember that when they published 5E they thought they were going to publish a few books and then basically shut the lights off of the book side of the business. The editions success caught everyone by surprise.

On the other hand this is one of the more minor changes in the history of D&D, it's about as evergreen as it gets.

Eh, it's bigger than the changes between the various versions of Basic and I'd argue it's bigger in rules terms than the difference between 1e and 2e, although 1e and 2e had some pretty big differences in terms of aesthetic and outlook, the actually rules of core 1e and 2e were pretty similar (at least until you added a stack of 2e splatbooks).

 

[Oofta]

Okay since you’re going to be rude…who cares? It’s irrelevant.

I didn’t. I’m giving my opinion. Chill out maybe.

And by the way, you responded to me first. If you don’t like what I have to say, you can not respond.

I'm not upset about what you said at all, I just think people go out of their way to look for issues, which isn't really necessary because WotC makes plenty of mistakes without looking for minor things like this. I didn't intend anything to be insulting, sorry if it came off that way.

I think the reasons behind why they stated that 5E was going to be evergreen is relevant. It's a phrase they last used, as far as I can remember, a decade ago long before they realized the game was going to be successful.

Look at the history of WotC D&D. The first 2.5 attempts at the game weren't exactly blockbuster successes that saw initial booms and then busted quickly. They had the some of the shortest lifespans of editions in the history of D&D. They hadn't figured out how to make the game worth maintaining for HASBRO execs and thought the only reason to release 5E was to maintain control over the IP for other ventures.

 

[Oofta]

Eh, it's bigger than the changes between the various versions of Basic and I'd argue it's bigger in rules terms than the difference between 1e and 2e, although 1e and 2e had some pretty big differences in terms of aesthetic and outlook, the actually rules of core 1e and 2e were pretty similar (at least until you added a stack of 2e splatbooks).

There's a whole other thread for "is it a new version".

I think they called it evergreen, a decade ago, for different reasons.