D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[Zardnaar]

what do you consider outperforming? If 2014 say sold 500k copies in its first 12 months and 2024 sold 800k, would you consider that 2024 outperforming 2014?

On an unrelated note, do we have any idea how many PHB were printed?

There's estimates around andbook scan data. 6 million gets thrown around a lot. Book scan alone it's outsold all the other editions except maybe 1E or B/X boxed sets.

I expect it to outsell 2014 both when it was released in 2014 (markets much bigger than then) and 2014s last year of sales (late 2023-24).

Doesn't mean 2024 will outsold 2014 over all as ales were lower both 2014 and probably last year or so.

They'll probably lose around half the sales and anywhere from 25-75% could be plausible.

 

[mamba]

I expect it to outsell 2014 both when it was released in 2014 (markets much bigger than then) and 2014s last year of sales (late 2023-24).

Doesn't mean 2024 will outsold 2014 over all

I am in the same boat, I definitely expect it to sell more in the first 12 months, probably even 24 months, than 5e did, but I am not sure that it will outsell 2014 over its lifetime, I am not really expecting 2024 will be around long enough for that.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

I expect it to outsell 2014 both when it was released in 2014 (markets much bigger than then) and 2014s last year of sales (late 2023-24).

Doesn't mean 2024 will outsold 2014 over all as ales were lower both 2014 and probably last year or so.

They'll probably lose around half the sales and anywhere from 25-75% could be plausible.

This all seems pretty likely to me. I'd be shocked if the "lifetime" sales of 2024's core books were as high as 2014, but maybe the DMG actually being good (assuming it is) and/or an increasingly % of DMs (or people wanting to try DM'ing) will boost that one?

Even in 10 years, unless D&D somehow got another resurgence/surge in popularity, I think 25-50% (maybe as high as 75% as you say) is much more likely.

And as @mamba says, I'm not sure it'll get 10 years. My guess would be close to 6, before we get a 6E or a 2030 or whatever.

 

[Zardnaar]

This all seems pretty likely to me. I'd be shocked if the "lifetime" sales of 2024's core books were as high as 2014, but maybe the DMG actually being good (assuming it is) and/or an increasingly % of DMs (or people wanting to try DM'ing) will boost that one?

Even in 10 years, unless D&D somehow got another resurgence/surge in popularity, I think 25-50% (maybe as high as 75% as you say) is much more likely.

And as @mamba says, I'm not sure it'll get 10 years. My guess would be close to 6, before we get a 6E or a 2030 or whatever.

Idk bit I think the "fad" has passed.

Even if it sells half of 2014 it's the second biggest D&D ever.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Let's remember Hasbro no only wants to sell more TTRPG sourcebooks but also other merchadising products with the D&D brand, mainly videogame an Hollywood productions. More novels could help but the best writters would rather to start from zero with their own saga where they can enjoy total creative control.

I wonder if LEGO: D&D is a reality now... why not in the future a Playmobil: D&D?

Maybe a LEGO: D&D videogame about collecting, training and summoning monsters is released to try being the rival of Pokemon.

Other suggestion could be a new section within DMGuild focused into fiction/literature. But then it could be full of works by wannabe mangakas writting their own isekai saga. (but maybe it is not a bad idea if somebody create the right story). Here the risk is if a novel is enough good to be adapted to manga or anime... what happens with the copyright? Could appear in the anime monsters protected by the trademark? Of course a possible solution would be replacing with an ersatz, for example beholders with "gazers".

 

[Daztur]

Let's remember Hasbro no only wants to sell more TTRPG sourcebooks but also other merchadising products with the D&D brand, mainly videogame an Hollywood productions. More novels could help but the best writters would rather to start from zero with their own saga where they can enjoy total creative control.

I wonder if LEGO: D&D is a reality now... why not in the future a Playmobil: D&D?

Maybe a LEGO: D&D videogame about collecting, training and summoning monsters is released to try being the rival of Pokemon.

Other suggestion could be a new section within DMGuild focused into fiction/literature. But then it could be full of works by wannabe mangakas writting their own isekai saga. (but maybe it is not a bad idea if somebody create the right story). Here the risk is if a novel is enough good to be adapted to manga or anime... what happens with the copyright? Could appear in the anime monsters protected by the trademark? Of course a possible solution would be replacing with an ersatz, for example beholders with "gazers".

Yeah the main distinction here is: "is Hasbro focused on selling people D&D game product or focused on selling D&D-licensed stuff (D&D movies, t-shirts, computer games, etc.)." I think it makes more sense for Hasbro to focus on the later, since D&D is a famously cheap hobby all things considered but I'm not sure that that's what they're doing. Stuff like the OGL fiasco, more focus on VTT, and 5.5e itself seem to be focused more on getting more dollar per year from each player as part of them playing D&D. If their biggest focus was on selling merchandise I think you'd see a different set of behaviors from Hasbro.

 

[MonsterEnvy]

Idk bit I think the "fad" has passed.

Why do you think this.

 

[Zardnaar]

Why do you think this.

Declining sale via book scan and widespread lack of excitement online.

 

[MonsterEnvy]

Declining sale via book scan and widespread lack of excitement online.

Sales are pretty strong from what I can tell, and only a few places are negative (and always were negative anyway)

 

[Zardnaar]

Sales are pretty strong from what I can tell, and only a few places are negative (and always were negative anyway)

More lower than what it was.

I dont think it's gonna do another 10 years and blow up like it did.

D&D Beyond might be the exception.

I could also be 100% wrong as well.