D&D (2024) Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?

[ezo]

Deleted due to discovered calculation error.

Many thanks to @mellored for their comment which caused me to re-examine CO at 1st-level and led to the discovery.

UPDATED (CORRECT) TABLE vs. FIREBALL.

 

[FrogReaver]

Complete Numbers:

View attachment 395930

Here you go. Hopefully, I got everything included in this...

For the chart, the baseline 65% up to 95% attack success on chromatic orb with the expected Targets hit and total expected damage. For example, if you assume 80% attack success at 4th-level spell slot, you can expect to hit 2.39 targets on average, dealing a total of 54.79 damage among the targets.

With fireball we have the expected damage according to the number of targets likely in the area. Chain lightning also includes expected damage for total targets (minimum 2).

Draw your own conclusions. For myself, since fireball usually hits 3-4 targets IME, and sometimes more, it is generally better in terms of total damage since attack success is roughly 65-75%.

Something seems off with your numbers. Your average hits for a level 3 chromatic orb don’t align with what I previously calculated for 100% to hit.

 

[ezo]

Something seems off with your numbers. Your average hits for a level 3 chromatic orb don’t align with what I previously calculated for 100% to hit.

I'll double-check it. However, my maximum is 95% since a 1 always misses, and my damage includes critical hits.

 

[ezo]

Here is my breakdown for 95% success:

Leap/bounce chance: 79.4922%
Expected damage: 22.5 (90% at 22.5 and 5% at 45 for critical)
0 hits: 5.000%
1 hit: 23.258%
2 hits: 17.564%
3 hits: 13.264%
4 hits: 40.914%
Expected hits: 2.61834
Multipy by 22.5 expected damage = 58.91265 damage total.

 

[ezo]

Updated numbers for level 3 chromatic orb (assuming 100% chance to hit).
20.5% for 0 hits
16.3% for 1 hits
13.0% for 2 hits
10.3% for 3 hits
39.9% for 4 hits

So, here the problem with your numbers. At 100% chance to hit, there is NO 0 hits. You have to hit the first target. So, assuming the "rounded" 79.5% leap/bounce:

0 hits: 0%
1 hit: 20.5%
2 hits: 16.3%
3 hits: 13.0%
4 hits: 50.2%

Damage should be 23.625 (w/ crits @ 100% attack), yields 69.2 damage.

This makes sense at 100% (is that even possible in 2024???) and is above my 58.91 damage at 95%.

 

[Zardnaar]

Anyone bored enough for level 4?

 

[ezo]

Anyone bored enough for level 4?

I already did it...

Complete Numbers:

View attachment 395930

Here you go. Hopefully, I got everything included in this...

For the chart, the baseline 65% up to 95% attack success on chromatic orb with the expected Targets hit and total expected damage. For example, if you assume 80% attack success at 4th-level spell slot, you can expect to hit 2.39 targets on average, dealing a total of 54.79 damage among the targets.

With fireball we have the expected damage according to the number of targets likely in the area. Chain lightning also includes expected damage for total targets (minimum 2).

Draw your own conclusions. For myself, since fireball usually hits 3-4 targets IME, and sometimes more, it is generally better in terms of total damage since attack success is roughly 65-75%.

 

[Zardnaar]

I already did it...

Derp cheers.

Interesting comparing CO to chain lightning

 

[ezo]

Derp cheers.

Interesting comparing CO to chain lightning

I can see why you feel with a much better attack % CO can stand up well to FB and CL.

Out of curiousity, since the bounce is to different targets, if you have advantage on the initial attack roll with CO, do you grant advantage on the bounce attacks against other targets??

I know as DM I wouldn't generally allow that, but it probably would be situational...

 

[Zardnaar]

I can see why you feel with a much better attack % CO can stand up well to FB and CL.

Out of curiousity, since the bounce is to different targets, if you have advantage on the initial attack roll with CO, do you grant advantage on the bounce attacks against other targets??

I know as DM I wouldn't generally allow that, but it probably would be situational...

Depends on what's granting advantage.

Innate sorcerery irrc is all spell attack rolls.

Sorcerer+Scorching ray+hex is also looking juicy espicially with energy substitution.