D&D (2024) Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?

[FrogReaver]

At 65% my players aren't using it at least upcast.

Usually it's with advantage at 65% or they use it point blank on a paralyzed foe via a hold person or monster spell.

If I'm a sorcerer planning on using it I'll probably take seeking spell.

I've seen it hit every foe on its bounce and score two crits while doing it.

I did some practice rolls with hypothetical elven accuracy +innate sorcerery+seeking spell. And yeah.

I wouldn't be counting elven accuracy at all. It's not a given the feat will even be available in a typical 2024 campaign.

That said, sorcerer is the prime candidate for chromatic orb. Alot of his metamagics helps it hit/bounce. But Wizards, Druids, Clerics, Bards... I'm not seeing the case for them.

 

[Zardnaar]

I wouldn't be counting elven accuracy at all. It's not a given the feat will even be available in a typical 2024 campaign.

That said, sorcerer is the prime candidate for chromatic orb. Alot of his metamagics helps it hit/bounce. But Wizards, Druids, Clerics, Bards... I'm not seeing the case for them.

It's weaker on them vs sorcerer. New magic adept though they can easily pick up bless or faerie fire (plus guidance and another cantrip).

Stuff you want to do anyway generally. Any spellcaster can get something arguably comparable to LB/FB at low opportunity cost.

 

[FrogReaver]

It's weaker on them vs sorcerer. New magic adept though they can easily pick up bless or faerie fire (plus guidance and another cantrip).

Stuff you want to do anyway generally. Any spellcaster can get something arguably comparable to LB/FB at low opportunity cost.

Even assuming 100% chance to hit it's not comparable. In a 3rd level slot:
30% chance to only hit one target.
21% chance to hit exactly 2 targets.
49% chance to hit exactly 3 targets.
0% chance to hit greater than 3 targets.

*Note used your 70% of bounce chance from OP.

It does 5d8 per hit. This works out to average damage of 49.3 when against 3+ enemies.

Fireball against 3 enemies does 69.3 (assuming 65% chance for a failed save). Fireball does this without any assistance or other resources expended, and if there's more enemies it does more. Chromatic Orb in a level 3 slot caps out around 49.3, but unless heavily investing in attack roll buffs, it's realistically going to be quite a bit less because chance to hit will not be 100%.

 

[Zardnaar]

Even assuming 100% chance to hit it's not comparable. In a 3rd level slot:
30% chance to only hit one target.
21% chance to hit exactly 2 targets.
49% chance to hit exactly 3 targets.
0% chance to hit greater than 3 targets.

*Note used your 70% of bounce chance from OP.

It does 5d8 per hit. This works out to average damage of 49.3 when against 3+ enemies.

Fireball against 3 enemies does 69.3 (assuming 65% chance for a failed save). Fireball does this without any assistance or other resources expended, and if there's more enemies it does more. Chromatic Orb in a level 3 slot caps out around 49.3, but unless heavily investing in attack roll buffs, it's realistically going to be quite a bit less because chance to hit will not be 100%.

How does it work with empower spell.

It's level 4 the bounce becomes very reliable.

CO bounces 1+spell level.
Bounce chance per level
79.5% 3rd
92.3% 4th
98.1% 5th

 

[FrogReaver]

How does it work with empower spell.

Haven't looked. But why are we talking about sorcerer only stuff again?

CO bounces 1+spell level.

Not quite. It bounces it's spell level times. However, counting the initial hit that means it can hit spell level+1 times. So I should have included 1 more hit in my previous numbers.

Bounce chance per level
79.5% 3rd
92.3% 4th
98.1% 5th

79.5% vs 70% also will change things a bit.

Updated numbers for level 3 chromatic orb (assuming 100% chance to hit).
20.5% for 0 hits
16.3% for 1 hits
13.0% for 2 hits
10.3% for 3 hits
39.9% for 4 hits

At 5d8 = 22.5 damage that's average of 52.4 Damage vs 4+ targets.

However, fireball against 4 targets is 92.4 Average Damage (still assuming 65% chance of failed save).

Against 4 targets
Level 3 Fireball 92.4 vs less than 52.4 Chromatic Orb (due to less than 100% to hit)

Against 3 targets
Level 3 Fireball 69.3 vs less than 43.4 Chromatic Orb (due to less than 100% to hit)

Conclusion
Fireball in a 3rd level slot is the clear winner, unless fire resistance or friendly fire is a concern.

 

[Zardnaar]

Haven't looked. But why are we talking about sorcerer only stuff again?


Not quite. It bounces it's spell level times. However, counting the initial hit that means it can hit spell level+1 times. So I should have included 1 more hit in my previous numbers.


79.5% vs 70% also will change things a bit.

Updated numbers for level 3 chromatic orb (assuming 100% chance to hit).
20.5% for 0 hits
16.3% for 1 hits
13.0% for 2 hits
10.3% for 3 hits
39.9% for 4 hits

At 5d8 = 22.5 damage that's average of 52.4 Damage vs 4+ targets.

However, fireball against 4 targets is 92.4 Average Damage (still assuming 65% chance of failed save).

Against 4 targets
Level 3 Fireball 92.4 vs less than 52.4 Chromatic Orb (due to less than 100% to hit)

Against 3 targets
Level 3 Fireball 69.3 vs less than 43.4 Chromatic Orb (due to less than 100% to hit)

Conclusion
Fireball in a 3rd level slot is the clear winner, unless fire resistance or friendly fire is a concern.

That's the thing about fireball. Fire resistance very common. Friendly fires also a big draw back.

I'm seeing lightning sorcerers a lot but woukd consider acid myself. The lightning sorcerers gives up 4 damage to use something else with CO.

 

[FrogReaver]

Bounce chance per level
79.5% 3rd
92.3% 4th
98.1% 5th

For a 4th level slot (100% chance to hit) the damage compared to a 4th level fireball

5 Targets
Fireball 130 vs 90.4 Chromatic

4 Targets
Fireball 104 vs 72.3 Chromatic

3 Targets
Fireball 78 vs 52.3 Chromatic

 

[FrogReaver]

That's the thing about fireball. Fire resistance very common. Friendly fires also a big draw back.

Sure, have chromatic as a backup. But it's no fireball in normal circumstances. Especially so when looking at normal accuracy levels.

And that's also without considering that fireball doesn't have the target limit. It's possible to hit more enemies with a fireball.

 

[Zardnaar]

For a 4th level slot (100% chance to hit) the damage compared to a 4th level fireball

5 Targets
Fireball 130 vs 90.4 Chromatic

4 Targets
Fireball 104 vs 72.3 Chromatic

3 Targets
Fireball 78 vs 52.3 Chromatic

Are you including fireball save for half?

 

[Zardnaar]

Sure, have chromatic as a backup. But it's no fireball in normal circumstances. Especially so when looking at normal accuracy levels.

And that's also without considering that fireball doesn't have the target limit. It's possible to hit more enemies with a fireball.

Last 3 adventures have been heavy on fire immunity and resistance.

They're all official WotC ones. Personally I try and avoid fire and poison due to this. We had a 12 damage upcast scorching ray yesterday due to this(5 rays vs a shambling mound iirc).