So, correct me if I came to a wrong conclusion about how the relative power of attack versus save cantrips work.
I believed for years that attacks were more effective than saves. I mean, they are 2 points higher and you can crit, right?
But then, a couple months ago, I wondered if that was actually right, and I started fiddling with math. Initially, I examined it from a PVP situation as a baseline (we already know how monsters are different than PCs mechanically, so that lets us later extend the findings).
I took the members of your typical 5e adventuring party (you know, that Champion, Thief, Life cleric, and Evoker WotC used in initial design balance) and figured out what the average AC would be at various levels. Figuring out the average spell attack roll was even easier. That gets a % to hit equal level opponents.
For saving throws, most characters will only be proficient in 1/3 of the saves, including one of the strong and one of the weak ones. I picked the ability scores that made sense for a class, and then determined what a character's average overall saving throw should be. Determining the save DCs was also easy, and from that their % of failing saves can be detemined.
At every level characters were on average more likely to fail a save than to be hit with an attack.
If we extend that to monsters, while lower level monsters often have weaker AC than PCs, higher level monsters offen have superior AC. Most monsters have zero saving throw proficiencies, although some (particularly high level ones) might have more than PCs. Except at the high levels where monsters start rocking 3+ saves, monsters are actually going to be amplifying this effect of save spells being more likely to take effect.
And that is all assuming the caster is firing blind without knowing which saves are weak for a target. In reality, if a caster knows two cantrips that use different save abilities, and can even guess right about which a foe is going to be weak to some of the time, they should be a lot more effective.
So, this is all new to me, and completely reverses what I thought I knew about the relative power of attack vs save cantrips (and spells in general). If I am wrong, I would very much like to be corrected, because it directly impacts my own cantrip designs.
So, let's look at it this way. Goblins.
The CR 1/4 Goblin Warrior has a 15 AC and a Dexterity save of +2.
If we assume a level 1 caster has a 16 in their primary ability, then your attack bonus to hit with, say, Firebolt, is +4. You hit on an 11, so that's a 45% chance to hit (dropping to 35% if there is soft cover).
Now let's switch this to something like Sacred Flame. It has a save DC of 13. Our Goblin friend has a Dexterity save of +2, so they save on an 11 for a 45% chance of a saving throw. This should, by rights, be exactly the same. And even better for SF, it doesn't really care about cover. Granted, the Fire Bolt will do 1 more damage to the Goblin's 10 hit points, so we'll call it pretty close to even.
Now, it's somewhat easier to boost accuracy for attack cantrips than save DC's- advantage is easy to get for players, forcing disadvantage on foes, not so much. Bless straight up adds 1d4 to hit, and while Bane should be equal, imposing a -1d4 saving throw, it itself has a saving throw to complicate things. Plus, your weapon using friends will gain more advantage from things like Bless than the Sacred Flame user will (ironic since it's probably that same SF user providing the spell in question).
This alone shouldn't be a big issue. Further, as you go up the goblin family tree, AC's might go up, but Dex saves remain fairly constant. So why does Sacred Flame seem to miss so much? I actually thought it was just confirmation bias until I played Baldur's Gate 3, and found that poor Shadowheart can't seem to land a Sacred Flame to save her soul- something must be going on here!
A slight problem comes with the nature of a d20 itself. The average of 1-20 isn't 10, but 10.5. By rights, a d20 should land on 11 slightly more often than a 10. This is to the advantage of attack cantrips, and to the disadvantage of saving throw cantrips. Is it enough to really matter? Out of 40 attack rolls, you should hit one more time than you usually would. So probably not.
And yet, I still see it all the time. In my current game, my 10th level Wizard has an 18 Int (I really wanted Resilient Con at level 8). The 10th level Cleric in my party has a Wisdom of 20. Yet my at-will attacks rarely miss, and his Sacred Flame seems to land about 50% of the time. And thanks to his subclass, he even does more damage with his cantrip, as he gets to add his Wisdom to it!
So on paper, he should be superior, but he isn't in practice. Now, part of this, I think, comes down to the fact that he casts leveled spells more often than I do. Generally, I throw out a control spell and focus on staying out of harm's way, holding concentration. I might throw a fireball if the stars align for me to get multiple targets and not risk harming my allies, but those moments are fairly uncommon. So I'm plinking away with my cantrip a lot.
He, on the other hand, is spending spell slots most turns. He starts with the Spirit Guardians + Spiritual Weapon combo (we're not playing 5.2024), and from there, actions and bonus actions are spent on healing spells as needed.
Conservatively, I'd say I use my cantrip twice as much as he does. It could be more. With such a small sample size, it would seem that I hit more often. Except I started keeping track some time ago. In the 5 sessions since I started doing this, I missed with my cantrip once. He's missed with his cantrip 6 times.
Last session I got a Wand of the Warmage +2, so I'm not sure if it's worth continuing to keep track, since my accuracy is greater.
But it's worth noting that his cantrip is more broadly useful across fights, since radiant is rarely resisted, and I've been in fights where my cantrips have been resisted.
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Another thing to keep in mind though, is that save cantrips tend to suck. Poison Spray not only has a volatile d12, with a high variance, but it's damage type is commonly resisted (or worse, enemies are immune to it). Toll the Dead has similar problems with it's Necrotic damage. And Acid Splash, though it can hit more than one target on occasion, does a lousy d6 damage, which isn't anything to write home about either. Frostbite has a strong effect, but Constitution tends to be a good save for many things. Mind Sliver and it's older brother, Vicious Mockery, have great effects but lower damage.
When people complain about attack cantrips, I'm always a bit confused. Yes, their non-physical damage and lack of ammunition requirements are advantages, but damage wise, even with scaling, they pale compared to multiple attacks and innate Dex to damage (getting your caster stat to damage isn't something everyone gets access to). The argument that they obsolete 1st level spells is less the fault of cantrips, and more the fault of leveled spells just being terrible. When your enemies start getting 50 hit points and up, what good is 3d4+3 from a Magic Missile? Even 1d10+2d6 for Ice Knife is only likely to deal 12.5 damage! You'll run out of spell slots long before you take out a single CR 2 Ogre!
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Back to the topic at hand. How useful utility cantrips are is dependent on the game and the creativity of the players (and how open the DM is to said creativity). Most cantrips have some fine print (like the limits on what you can Mend or the time limit on Prestidigitation- most effects can last up to an hour, some only last until the end of your next turn!). It's not like I never see opportunities to use, say, Mage Hand, but they come so infrequently I rarely take the cantrip! The only one I generally always take is Prestidigitation, and mostly for roleplay reasons (unless nobody has Light).
If, in your game, someone found a good use for a cantrip, that should be a good thing, IMO. If it's becoming a problem, I don't think it's the cantrip's fault. If a 10 pound object is enough to set off traps, what of it? Couldn't you just have the strong guy of the party throw a heavy object, if you had one laying around?
I suppose that would be slightly more interesting, as you could ask for a die roll (Athletics or an attack roll), but if the trap is so easily foiled, it was inevitable, whether someone had Mage Hand or not, that the party would do so. I see this as more a problem with traps in general (being pretty boring by design most times- did you notice the trap? If yes, can you disable the trap? If no to either question, take some damage, sound an alarm, drop someone into a pit or seal an entry/exit). Complex, Rube Goldbergian traps make no sense to be encountered often (and the trap itself would be worth more than most treasure it would be protecting!), and the best traps are magical, often requiring magic to overcome.
Further, you have to think about how sparse the equipment list is. A lot of times, cantrips are subbing in for levers, long-handled lockpicks, glass cutters, hacksaws, mirror poles, and listening cones that have vanished from modern adventuring equipment! If you want to make utility cantrips less notable, bring back specialized adventuring gear!