D&D 5E 3 Years Later: D&D's total Domination on Amazon (and Earth in General)

[Tony Vargas]

Sales, whether gross revenue (remember to adjust for inflation) or unit, are just numbers we don't have. You hear someone guess at a number, if it favors your narrative, you grasp onto it, if it doesn't, you dismiss it. :shrug:

Time has passed, revs have rolled. That's just the way it is. That D&D keeps having new editions is a sort of success, in it's own right. Certainly better than vanishing into obscurity.

Right now, for the first time in a very long time, D&D is doing well enough that it's not in constant danger of having the plug pulled, it's not being eaten alive by it's own d20 progeny nor being cannibalized by it's own ill-thought-out digital offerings, nor being too extensively pirated, nor unfairly criticized (though, y'know, if anyone in the mainstream wants to accuse D&D of something juicy like Satanism, or sexual deviance or something, please, feel free...)

And, it's own fanbase isn't actively trying to burn down the hobby in a psychotic rage, which is nice.

Seriously, be thankful and enjoy - we'll likely look back on this as a golden age.
Well, no, we already had that.
Silver Age, then.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sales, whether gross revenue (remember to adjust for inflation) or unit, are just numbers we don't have. You hear someone guess at a number, if it favors your narrative, you grasp onto it, if it doesn't, you dismiss it. :shrug:

Time has passed, revs have rolled. That's just the way it is. That D&D keeps having new editions is a sort of success, in it's own right. Certainly better than vanishing into obscurity.

Right now, for the first time in a very long time, D&D is doing well enough that it's not in constant danger of having the plug pulled, it's not being eaten alive by it's own d20 progeny nor being cannibalized by it's own ill-thought-out digital offerings, nor being too extensively pirated, nor unfairly criticized (though, y'know, if anyone in the mainstream wants to accuse D&D of something juicy like Satanism, or sexual deviance or something, please, feel free...)

And, it's own fanbase isn't actively trying to burn down the hobby in a psychotic rage, which is nice.

Seriously, be thankful and enjoy - we'll likely look back on this as a golden age. Well, now, we already had that. Silver Age, then.

The satanism thing was one of the greatest things that ever happened to D&D. Sales skyrocketed.

 

[Jester David]

Except that number is a complete guess.

Not really.
We can make an educated guess at sales numbers on Amazon via sites like this: https://www.tckpublishing.com/amazon-book-sales-calculator/

And, again, we have the reported sales numbers from Dancey and Mona, which you reference again later on.
Some guessing is happening, but it's educated guesses and not just random numbers being pulled out of the aether.

I'm not disputing that 5E is doing well, or even very well but if you look at Mearls language for example we do not know what criteria he is using.

Again, not really.
"5e lifetime PHB sales > 3, 3.5, 4 lifetime"
https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/764241988128419840

There's two ways to take that. Either 5e outsold them all (unlikely) or 5e outsold each individually (likely).

Saying for example 5E is going better than 3E dodesn't tell us much he might be talking about profit margins for example and I suspect 5E is doing very well there.

Then he would have used "profits". But he used "sales". And then clarified "book sales", so things like downloads of the Basic Rules were not included.
https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/765076775357390848

Another thing is if Mearls claims 5E is outselling 3E it could also be in relation to 3.5 (which did not sell as well as 3.0) or even references the lifecycle. At this point in time in 2003 for example 3.0 was winding down or outright dead and we know that 3.0 was heavily front loaded in its lifetime sales so outselling 3.0 would not be to hard either.

Once again, not really. He mentions both "3" and "3.5".
While you're right that by this point in time, 3.0 was "dead" (and the 3.5e books released), I'm not sure what you mean about 3.0 being "front loaded". Books came out slowly over the two years between launch and 3.5e, with some pretty big books (Deities & Demigods, Epic Level Handbook, MMII) coming out in 2002. And the class books were equally spread out. Masters of the Wild didn't come out until February of 2002. And there were even some noteworthy books slipped in early in 2003, right before 3.5e came out (Arms & Equipment, Fiend Folio, Ghostwalk, MM3, Savage Species).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Dungeons_&_Dragons_rulebooks


Regardless, if we're going to cast shade at Mearls' statement, "sales" could mean copies shipped to the distributor and stores are there could have been huge stockpiles of unsold books in Amazon warehouses and game stores. Maybe he was speeding hypothetically or speaking about the theoretical "lifetime" of 5e. Maybe it was a typo and he meant to say "<". Maybe his Twitter account could have been hacked by a fan. Maybe he was just outright lying.

But the most likely interpretation is like plain one: the 5e PHB sold more copies than the 3.0e PHB. That on August 12th, 2016, just two years into 5e, 5th Edition had sold more Player's Handbooks than 3.0e sold during its three years prior to 3.5e.

I suspect that D&D is also selling a disproportionate amount of books on Amazon due to price and lack of FLGS.

It's likely selling higher there than other places. But gamers are pretty loyal to their stores. So people with FLGS likely purchase there.

I think there were several thousand in the 90's, a couple of thousand during 3E and perhaps 500-800 now in the USA so basic logic would dictate Amazon is probably the biggest source of D&D books. Our group for example bought all our books online (Amazon+Bookdepository).

There are over 1500 Wizards Play Network stores in North America that run Adventurer's League play.

And there are many more stores that would are WPN and sell the books but don't run AL, and FLGS that sell D&D books but aren't WPN stores. Plus additional places to buy, such as board game and comic stores, generic hobby stores, small book stores, some video game stores, and of course chain book stores.

I'm not convinced it has outsold the life time sales of 3E and 2E

That's nice.
I wonder what it would take to convince you.

and sooner or later its sales will plateau (everyone who wants a PHB has one).

Having sales "plateau" means they continue to sell at a steady rate. In this case it has. It's been hovering at the bottom of the "Top 100" for a couple years now. So it plateau-ed, but at a very high sales rate.

If everyone who wants a PHB has one, sales won't plateau, they'll steadily drop until they hit a very low level. But that does not seem to be happening.

Which suggests that:
a) there are a number of lapsed gamers returning at a steady rate
b) people are buying replacement books at a steady rate
c) lots of new gamers are coming into the hobby at a steady rate
d) all of the above

5e is really striking a cord with a new generation. And there are a lot of new players regularly coming into the hobby. And as more people come in, they tell more people and bring in their friends, and so on.

I'm sure the numbers will drop eventually. But that doesn't seem to be happening any time soon. And considering popular video games can sell tens of millions of copies, it's not impossible to peg the potential audience of D&D at three or four million. So D&D 5e *could* still continue to sell, easily passing a million copies sold.
After all, there are more gamers out there now - more people in general - and fantasy and RPGs are more accepted. And there's the internet, making buying the books, finding a group, and learning to play easier than ever.

That is when they will probably do a splat book or setting per year, rerelease the PHB with errata+ new art or start on 6E.

People have been saying that for two years now. And it doesn't seem to be happening.
WotC settled into a slower three book release schedule when they were expecting the edition to just be a reasonable success. Now it's been a staggering and prolonged hit, it will likely take a HUGE hit to sales to get them to radically change their release schedule.

I expect we'll see a campaign setting in place of an adventure or fall accessory eventually. But WotC seems quite happy to go at their own rate rather than get everything out all at once.

There are various sales estimates out there (Dancey, Mona, Gygax etc). Generally they agree on the following.

1E outsold 2E 2-1 (750k vs 1.5 million matches this)
3.0 sold heavily in the 1st month
No one knows exactly how many AD&D and BECMI sold (estimates of 1 million to 1.5 million), TSR records were very bad.
D&D peaked year was 1983, virtually bankrupt in 1985 (sales dipped 30% in 84, TSR guessed wrong and expanded instead)

I generally go with the low figures (3.0 500k, 3.5 250-350 Erik Mona vs 1 million Dancey).

No one knows exactly what 5E or 4E has sold, the 4E estimates are often around half the Pathfinder sales (250k 2014 Mona) and they pulled that edition fairly quickly more or less going out of print between 2010-2012. 3E estimates sometimes do not differ from 3.0/3.5.

Giving Dancey the benefit of the doubt and assuming he combined the sales of 3.0 and 3.5, 1 million combined for that edition seems reasonable (and not far off the 850k combined of Mona).

So, again, if 5e has outsold 3e, it should have sold in the range of 650k. In mid-2016. Again, with Amazon sales alone, it's looking at 120,000+ sales for the last year. Plus game stores. That alone put it within range of your 2e numbers. Before FLGS and chain book stores.

 

[Morrus]

2E outsold 3E

I've always heard 3e outsold 2e...

Neither of you has access to these figures.

 

[Arilyn]

Neither of you has access to these figures.

But we are all experts regardless...

 

[Jester David]

Neither of you has access to these figures.

True. But...

But we are all experts regardless...

Not an expert, but deferring to one.
I was recalling Joseph Goodman (of Goodman Games) and his analysis of the gaming industry in the early days of 4e. 2008-9

With these myths dispelled, let's discuss the meaning of "doing well." First, some historical context. Before I founded Goodman Games, I wrote a book on the history of this industry. It was something of a research project that turned into a book. I was planning to start a game company, and I wanted to do it right, so I researched the history of the three primary publishing categories. Most of the gaming history that gets published these days is product-focused, with an emphasis on creators, artists, inspirations, and the like. My research was focused on the business strategies of the companies involved. For example, in the early 1980's when Games Workshop got the license to produce official D&D miniatures from TSR, they did absolutely nothing with it and effectively used it to shut down their competitors so they could launch their own fantasy miniatures line. Has anybody else here studied the retail locator lists in White Dwarf magazine over the 1980's? Cross-reference the independent hobby shops listed in the early 1980's against the addresses of the GW company shops listed in the late 1980's. It's fascinating; you can see the pattern of how GW opened shops in close proximity to their hobby accounts. If you ever want to learn actual TSR sales figures, do your homework and find all the lawsuits against them. It's all public record, and I've read it all. Dave Arneson sued TSR three times for unpaid royalties, and each of the court filings lists TSR sales figures for the years where he challenged.

All of this research (which I ultimately decided not to publish) forms the historical context for my opinion of D&D 4E. Dungeons & Dragons has had two, and exactly two, peak years. The first was 1982. The second was 2001. The mid-80's were a declining period, and the 90's were a trough. From a business perspective, the creatively-much-admired 1970's were really a low point for D&D. Fast growth, but very low sales volume compared to the years to come.

From 1974 to 2009 is 35 years. Or, roughly two generations. D&D has roughly one peak every generation. 35 years total, 2 of which were great, and the other 33 of which were "okay."

Now, with that in mind, nothing says that 3e outsold 2e. After all, one peak year accompanied by three average ones might easily be beaten by eleven years of steady sales.

 

[LordEntrails]

Now, with that in mind, nothing says that 3e outsold 2e. After all, one peak year accompanied by three average ones might easily be beaten by eleven years of steady sales.

Or not.

I find this all fascinating. But I have yet to see anything convince me either view is more reliable than the other.

 

[Zardnaar]

Not really.
We can make an educated guess at sales numbers on Amazon via sites like this: https://www.tckpublishing.com/amazon-book-sales-calculator/

And, again, we have the reported sales numbers from Dancey and Mona, which you reference again later on.
Some guessing is happening, but it's educated guesses and not just random numbers being pulled out of the aether.


Again, not really.
"5e lifetime PHB sales > 3, 3.5, 4 lifetime"
https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/764241988128419840

There's two ways to take that. Either 5e outsold them all (unlikely) or 5e outsold each individually (likely).


Then he would have used "profits". But he used "sales". And then clarified "book sales", so things like downloads of the Basic Rules were not included.
https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/765076775357390848


Once again, not really. He mentions both "3" and "3.5".
While you're right that by this point in time, 3.0 was "dead" (and the 3.5e books released), I'm not sure what you mean about 3.0 being "front loaded". Books came out slowly over the two years between launch and 3.5e, with some pretty big books (Deities & Demigods, Epic Level Handbook, MMII) coming out in 2002. And the class books were equally spread out. Masters of the Wild didn't come out until February of 2002. And there were even some noteworthy books slipped in early in 2003, right before 3.5e came out (Arms & Equipment, Fiend Folio, Ghostwalk, MM3, Savage Species).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Dungeons_&_Dragons_rulebooks


Regardless, if we're going to cast shade at Mearls' statement, "sales" could mean copies shipped to the distributor and stores are there could have been huge stockpiles of unsold books in Amazon warehouses and game stores. Maybe he was speeding hypothetically or speaking about the theoretical "lifetime" of 5e. Maybe it was a typo and he meant to say "<". Maybe his Twitter account could have been hacked by a fan. Maybe he was just outright lying.

But the most likely interpretation is like plain one: the 5e PHB sold more copies than the 3.0e PHB. That on August 12th, 2016, just two years into 5e, 5th Edition had sold more Player's Handbooks than 3.0e sold during its three years prior to 3.5e.


It's likely selling higher there than other places. But gamers are pretty loyal to their stores. So people with FLGS likely purchase there.


There are over 1500 Wizards Play Network stores in North America that run Adventurer's League play.

And there are many more stores that would are WPN and sell the books but don't run AL, and FLGS that sell D&D books but aren't WPN stores. Plus additional places to buy, such as board game and comic stores, generic hobby stores, small book stores, some video game stores, and of course chain book stores.


That's nice.
I wonder what it would take to convince you.


Having sales "plateau" means they continue to sell at a steady rate. In this case it has. It's been hovering at the bottom of the "Top 100" for a couple years now. So it plateau-ed, but at a very high sales rate.

If everyone who wants a PHB has one, sales won't plateau, they'll steadily drop until they hit a very low level. But that does not seem to be happening.

Which suggests that:
a) there are a number of lapsed gamers returning at a steady rate
b) people are buying replacement books at a steady rate
c) lots of new gamers are coming into the hobby at a steady rate
d) all of the above

5e is really striking a cord with a new generation. And there are a lot of new players regularly coming into the hobby. And as more people come in, they tell more people and bring in their friends, and so on.

I'm sure the numbers will drop eventually. But that doesn't seem to be happening any time soon. And considering popular video games can sell tens of millions of copies, it's not impossible to peg the potential audience of D&D at three or four million. So D&D 5e *could* still continue to sell, easily passing a million copies sold.
After all, there are more gamers out there now - more people in general - and fantasy and RPGs are more accepted. And there's the internet, making buying the books, finding a group, and learning to play easier than ever.


People have been saying that for two years now. And it doesn't seem to be happening.
WotC settled into a slower three book release schedule when they were expecting the edition to just be a reasonable success. Now it's been a staggering and prolonged hit, it will likely take a HUGE hit to sales to get them to radically change their release schedule.

I expect we'll see a campaign setting in place of an adventure or fall accessory eventually. But WotC seems quite happy to go at their own rate rather than get everything out all at once.


Giving Dancey the benefit of the doubt and assuming he combined the sales of 3.0 and 3.5, 1 million combined for that edition seems reasonable (and not far off the 850k combined of Mona).

So, again, if 5e has outsold 3e, it should have sold in the range of 650k. In mid-2016. Again, with Amazon sales alone, it's looking at 120,000+ sales for the last year. Plus game stores. That alone put it within range of your 2e numbers. Before FLGS and chain book stores.

Assuming your your numbers assumption about Amazon are correct or even ball park figures. You also have the total size of the RPG market metric to go on as well.

I would not be surprised if 5E has sold 500k books or so or has sold 120k a year. Some people were getting carried away though and extrapolating things up to very silly number. I don't think they have outsold 3E combined for example and it depends on how you count sales of 3E as well (ie does Pathfinder count).

 

[Zardnaar]

Neither of you has access to these figures.

Numbers have come out and when a few of them match up and are within a few % points of each other and come form ex WoTC/TSR staffers I treat them as ball park figures. They may not be exactly right (Dancey tends to over esitmate things for example) but even his numbers are close to Erik Mona's or Lisa Stevens and Gygax,, Meltzer, Applecine etc have givin numbers for TSR era D&D and some print run sizes for example are known.

Not arguing over 5E being a smash hit, just the scale of it. Mearls statement while cute does need a bit of context. They were claiming 4E was doing fine while canceling book lines for example and I think they claimed 4E outsold 3E on pre orders which people took to mean 4E outsold 3E.

Assuming Mearls is not making up complete bollocks 5E has outsold 3E but not 2E or 3.0+3.5 (although they might have by now). If the other numbers are somewhat accurate it and the 120 k per year number is not completely loony 5E would have sold 500k-750k which is really great in 3 years. Its selling faster than any other edition with perhaps the exception of the 81-83 era. Its probably a new silver age, we will know in 3-5 years I suppose if its a new golden age.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Neither of you has access to these figures.

But they both have access to countervailing confirmation bias, so the epic cosmic battle continues...