doctorbadwolf
Heretic of The Seventh Circle
Yeah the flight nerd is completely unnecessary, and is gonna get very strongly negative feedback from me.
D&D (2024) 4/26 Playtest: The Sorceror
- Thread starter Stalker0
- Start date
Chaosmancer
Legend
Right, but you laid the difference down right there. If you have "a certain enemy". Arcane Eruption has a chance to incapacitate multiple enemies. I mean, I know it would be rare, but you could potentially damage and incap 8 enemies with this single spell.
The thing I really think applies here though is... most of these effects are REALLY good.
Incapped -> Enemies who fail the save lose their turn
Blinded -> Enemies who fail have disadvantage on every attack, we have advantage to hit them, and any spellcaster's that fail can't use spells (because pretty much every spell requires line of sight)
Fear -> Enemies who fail have disadvantage on every attack, and cannot approach you
Poisoned -> Enemies who fail have disadvantage on every attack
Charm -> Enemies can't target you at all
Deafened.... kind of sucks
Now, yes, if you want to incap a bunch of enemies, then Hypnotic Pattern can be better, but it also hits a mental save. You are rarely going to hit a caster with that and have it stick. But a con save WILL stick on a caster. And remember, you are likely to have access to almost all of these after rolling, with good chances of just shutting down casters. And any brutes in the area who are going to make the save? They still take damage.
Which, fascinatingly to me, makes this one of the best spells to throw at a mixed group of enemies. It can shut down a caster for a turn, break concentration, wipe out minions, and damage brutes (with a low chance of severely hampering the brutes) all with a single spell. Most spells are best against a single type of enemy, and so mixed groups are a challenge. This one LOVES mixed groups.
Chaosmancer
Legend
So, I am wondering something. Is Sorcery Incarnate any good?
5th level spell, which is a bit pricy, and concentration. It returns 1d4 pts which is... okay? I mean that is one more use of most metamagics on average, but it isn't ground-breaking. Especially since one of the major benefits is being able to stack metamagics. The problem is, the best metamagics to stack all take concentration, when means you don't want to use them, because 5th level spell down the drain. I'll do a quick run down of combos in a moment.
But the final part is the part that not only is defintely good, but frustrating. Because advantage on spell attacks is great... and clearly meant to encourage you to use blast spells that have spell attacks. Which aren't that common. Actually... yikes... that is kind of bad isn't it?
Ignoring Cantrips the list of spell attacks I can find from the Arcane Spell list?
- Chromatic Orb
... That is 8 spells... I can add Chaos Bolt to bring it to 9, but then the concentration limitation drops it back to 6. And only one of these is generally considered any good. So is it worth it to cast a 5th level spell for advantage on Cantrips and spamming Scorching Ray? I mean... I don't think so.
And looking at these, you would never use Careful spell, because none of these can target allies. Heighten and Extended are useless for these types of spells. Seeking is one of the best for these spells... but it can already be doubled up, same with Empowered (can you empowered seeking and a third? Maybe by RAW)
So a 5th level spell, for advantage on cantrips and the option to Distant Subtle with advantage? That's the best option I can think of for this and that SUCKS. Especially since the Dragon Sorcerer wants to have this spell up so they can fly and use a close range burst.... meaning no distant metamagic needed!
Now, just because the you won't get half the effect, I suppose you could still fireball and get something like careful transmuted... but DANG I just do not see what you are supposed to use this for.
5th level spell, which is a bit pricy, and concentration. It returns 1d4 pts which is... okay? I mean that is one more use of most metamagics on average, but it isn't ground-breaking. Especially since one of the major benefits is being able to stack metamagics. The problem is, the best metamagics to stack all take concentration, when means you don't want to use them, because 5th level spell down the drain. I'll do a quick run down of combos in a moment.
But the final part is the part that not only is defintely good, but frustrating. Because advantage on spell attacks is great... and clearly meant to encourage you to use blast spells that have spell attacks. Which aren't that common. Actually... yikes... that is kind of bad isn't it?
Ignoring Cantrips the list of spell attacks I can find from the Arcane Spell list?
- Chromatic Orb
- Ray of Sickness
- Witch Bolt
- Melf's Acid Arrow
- Scorching Ray
Vampiric Touch(Concentration)Bigby's Hand(Concentration)Mordenkainen's Sword(Concentration)
... That is 8 spells... I can add Chaos Bolt to bring it to 9, but then the concentration limitation drops it back to 6. And only one of these is generally considered any good. So is it worth it to cast a 5th level spell for advantage on Cantrips and spamming Scorching Ray? I mean... I don't think so.
And looking at these, you would never use Careful spell, because none of these can target allies. Heighten and Extended are useless for these types of spells. Seeking is one of the best for these spells... but it can already be doubled up, same with Empowered (can you empowered seeking and a third? Maybe by RAW)
So a 5th level spell, for advantage on cantrips and the option to Distant Subtle with advantage? That's the best option I can think of for this and that SUCKS. Especially since the Dragon Sorcerer wants to have this spell up so they can fly and use a close range burst.... meaning no distant metamagic needed!
Now, just because the you won't get half the effect, I suppose you could still fireball and get something like careful transmuted... but DANG I just do not see what you are supposed to use this for.
mellored
Legend
Dragon Sorcerers get a 15' cone, that's all attack rolls.
I kind of assume other subclasses will get something similar, upgrades to the included spell.
Kinematics
Hero
The only thing I can figure it working for is:
2 metamagics = Quicken + 1 other metamagic
Attack advantage = the paired cantrip
So the only question is if there are any spells that you'd want to use a metamagic on while also quickening them.
Subtle is kind of silly when you're flying and glowing with magic. You pretty much threw subtlety out the window already.
A Careful Fireball? Careful/Heightened Cone of Cold? Maybe Twinning it the next turn? Or actually, maybe use it on higher-level spells, like, say, an 8th level Sunburst (where the blinding effect doesn't require concentration) or 7th level Finger of Death?
You're far more limited on higher level spell slots, so using Heightened on them could be worthwhile, and if you're trying to max nova, tossing in a cantrip as well (or cone breath, for Draconics) gives a boost.
Is 3 turns of extra cantrip power worth the sacrifice of a 5th level slot? Well, that could be 12d10 vs 1 target, or 12d6 (~15d6 with explodes) vs 2-3 targets. So, maybe? I'd probably want 4 turns before I felt it was really pulling its weight, but that implies you're using up all your level 6+ slots on doing this, so even then feels really hard to justify outside of The Final Boss.
I dunno. Including the wing flap damage, I could maybe see doing this as a max nova approach, but it still feels like a struggle to make it seem worthwhile. Maybe run some numbers on it?
2 metamagics = Quicken + 1 other metamagic
Attack advantage = the paired cantrip
So the only question is if there are any spells that you'd want to use a metamagic on while also quickening them.
Subtle is kind of silly when you're flying and glowing with magic. You pretty much threw subtlety out the window already.
A Careful Fireball? Careful/Heightened Cone of Cold? Maybe Twinning it the next turn? Or actually, maybe use it on higher-level spells, like, say, an 8th level Sunburst (where the blinding effect doesn't require concentration) or 7th level Finger of Death?
You're far more limited on higher level spell slots, so using Heightened on them could be worthwhile, and if you're trying to max nova, tossing in a cantrip as well (or cone breath, for Draconics) gives a boost.
Is 3 turns of extra cantrip power worth the sacrifice of a 5th level slot? Well, that could be 12d10 vs 1 target, or 12d6 (~15d6 with explodes) vs 2-3 targets. So, maybe? I'd probably want 4 turns before I felt it was really pulling its weight, but that implies you're using up all your level 6+ slots on doing this, so even then feels really hard to justify outside of The Final Boss.
I dunno. Including the wing flap damage, I could maybe see doing this as a max nova approach, but it still feels like a struggle to make it seem worthwhile. Maybe run some numbers on it?
Chaosmancer
Legend
It does work for that but... is that really the design here? Get a spell so that next level your subclass special ability can be done with advantage? At the cost of your most powerful spell slot?
The more I think on this, the more I feel like the design was made without checking a full list of what options were available, or they seriously intent this spell to only really buff cantrips.
Chaosmancer
Legend
I barely would know where to start on the numbers, but let's try it? The problem is, I don't neccesarily want to look at this for the subclass, because if we find the damage is worth it for the Dragon subclass, what do we do with the Shadow Sorcerer who doesn't get the damage boosts? I'd want to avoid a situation where we say "this is fine" now only to find out it is only fine for a specific build.
So, DMG says that a 5th level spell should be 8d6 if it hits multiple targets (yeah, the same as a 3rd level fireball) so let's roll with that. I've always heard the standard for an AOE is three targets, so that would be 28 x 3. I'll just assume all saves are 50%, which feels close enough to me. So, if I'm right about how to do this, 50% hits three targets for 28 and 50% hits three targets for 14 (half on a save) which is
.5x28x3 = 42
.5x14x3 = 21
Which is 63 average expected damage (this is less than the 28x3, so I feel like we are on the correct track) And already... this isn't looking good.
I'm going to use Firebolt, just because it is a good standard. At 9th and 10th level when we get this, firebolt does 2d10 or 11 average damage. Assuming 60% accuracy that is normally (over three turns)
.6x11x3 = 19.8 damage over three turns. (no crits for spells... right...)
Advantage, according to the Treantmonk videos, increases the accuracy to 84% which makes it
.84x11x3 = 27.72 over three turns.
Which, since Sorcery incarnate is a bonus action, we are really able to just look straight at the difference... which is 7.92... This isn't great. Even if I added the 5 damage from the wing burst, over three turns, and against three enemies, that is only +45. I guess if I added the +5 damage to each of the firebolts from the Draconic Sorcery?
.6x16x3 =28.8
.84x16x3 = 40.32
40.32-28.8 = 11.52+45 = 56.52... even with all the subclass bonuses, you still aren't hitting the same damage as a level 5 AOE after three rounds of Sorcery Incarnate advantage on cantrips. And most 5e fights tend to only last about 3 rounds, so if you NEED to get to round 4, you have a problem.
So, the only play that even might have a chance here is Sorcery Incarnate, then cantrip turn one. Quicken + Heighten an AOE then cantrip again... but at that point, why not just Heighten the AOE and cast it twice? Or Heighten the AOE then Quicken the Cantrip, which is perfectly legal to do.
And you mention spells like Sunburst, but you can't twin suburst (twin is limited to 5th level) so... really other than heighten and careful what do you do? And frankly... just pick one or the other and keep your 5th level spell slot for another big spell.
Edit: Probably should run the numbers for 11th level, since you are right there.
.6x16.5x3 = 29.7 non-draconic
.84x16.5x3 = 41.58
Difference of 11.88 damage.
.6x21.5x3 = 38.7
.84x21.5x3 = 54.18
Difference of 15.48 + 45 = 60.48... still lower than a single turn, single action for the 5th level AOE numbers.
Kinematics
Hero
Going to run my own calculations, as there's some other details I want to check on.
We want to see both when you first get the spell, and possibly its progression as you level. Levels of interest:
9 - Get the spell
11 - Cantrips go to 3dX
13 - Have a total of 6 metamagics available at a time
14 - Dragon Wings
17 - Cantrips go to 4dX
So, you cast the spell. You almost certainly will want to use Extended metamagic on it to get advantage on concentration checks. It would be stupid to lose the spell at that point.
As such, we need to spend 1 sorcery point when casting it, which means we need to compare it to a 5th level spell + 1 sorcery point.
Base damage value of a 5th level spell is 8d6. 1 sorcery point could be used to Empower it (max 5 rerolled dice). That raises the average result from 28 to 33.89. Assuming a 50% resist rate, that's an average of 25.4 damage per affected creature.
The DMG page 249 suggests radius ÷ 5 for the number of expected targets within a spherical area, so for a Fireball sized effect, that should be 4 targets. That would mean a total sacrificed value of 101.6 damage.
If you stack Quickened + Heightened with big spells in order to free up your main action for another spell, then we're looking at the value that cantrips can provide, compared to just using Heightened on the big spells and forgoing the bonus action. Note that while you can Quicken a cantrip, you still can't cast anything but a cantrip as the main action, so that's not a valid substitute configuration.
If you cast 3 big spells, that will take 3 turns after you activate Sorcery Incarnate, which means 4 total rounds of casting. While 3 rounds is the average, big fights are going to often last longer, so I'm fine with using this. We can cast a cantrip on the round of casting SI, since SI is already a bonus action spell. That gives us 4 cantrips, which means they need to average at least 25.4 damage each to make up for the sacrificed 5th level spell.
Each die is worth an average of 5.5. With a 60% hit rate, that becomes 3.3. With advantage, that becomes 4.62. So the totals with advantage:
Level 9 Fire Bolt damage: 9.24
Level 9 Fire Bolt damage for Draconic: 13.44
Level 11 Fire Bolt damage: 13.86
Level 11 Fire Bolt damage for Draconic: 18.06
Level 17 Fire Bolt damage: 18.48
Level 17 Fire Bolt damage for Draconic: 22.68
So Fire Bolt won't reach that even at level 17 with the Draconic damage boost plus advantage on the attack roll.
However, if we're willing to play close to the front lines, we can bump up the damage, both from cantrips and the wing flaps.
With Draconic Exhalation, the expected number of targets hit in a 15' cone is 2.
Only the first attack in the Exhalation will get the +5 Cha damage from Elemental Affinity. Both get advantage on the attack roll. Since the attack rolls are separate, they get their own calculation on average damage, which will be 4.20 damage per die if we don't use Empower. So:
Level 9 Sorcerous Burst/Exhalation: 11.256 + 7.056 = 18.312
Level 11 Sorcerous Burst/Exhalation: 14.784 + 10.584 = 25.368
Level 17 Sorcerous Burst/Exhalation: 18.312 + 14.112 = 32.424
So we actually break even at level 11. At level 14, with the wing flap from Dragon Wings, we'd pull into the positive.
A 15' square (from above, if we use flight) is expected to hit 3 targets, doing 5 damage each, for a total of 15 additional damage. A 35' square (surrounding the sorcerer if he stays on the ground) is expected to hit 7 targets. I'll stay with the smaller expected result.
Since this happens each turn, it adds directly to the cantrip damage for these calculations, putting us at about 40 at level 14, and 47 at level 17. Well ahead of the break-even point.
Summary:
Excluding the subclass, and using Fire Bolt, there doesn't appear to be any way for the Sorcery Incarnate tax to be worthwhile.
For the Draconic subclass, using Sorcerous Burst + Draconic Exhalation, plus the wing flaps, it pulls well ahead of break-even, doing about 86 more damage over 4 rounds than we're giving up by casting the 5th level spell (assuming we have enough targets to hit with AOE damage).
We'd also going to want to be at least 14th level in order to have a high enough damage on the cantrip, enough high level spell slots, and for Dragon Wings to come online in order to make this work. Even then it will be tight. Level 15 will be better for the extra spell slot, and we also get Sorcerous Restoration for more sorcery points.
So it's possible for this to be worthwhile, but only with a subclass that specializes in the limited damage-boosting build necessary to work around the limits of the original spell, and only at much higher levels than the spell itself.
We want to see both when you first get the spell, and possibly its progression as you level. Levels of interest:
9 - Get the spell
11 - Cantrips go to 3dX
13 - Have a total of 6 metamagics available at a time
14 - Dragon Wings
17 - Cantrips go to 4dX
So, you cast the spell. You almost certainly will want to use Extended metamagic on it to get advantage on concentration checks. It would be stupid to lose the spell at that point.
As such, we need to spend 1 sorcery point when casting it, which means we need to compare it to a 5th level spell + 1 sorcery point.
Base damage value of a 5th level spell is 8d6. 1 sorcery point could be used to Empower it (max 5 rerolled dice). That raises the average result from 28 to 33.89. Assuming a 50% resist rate, that's an average of 25.4 damage per affected creature.
The DMG page 249 suggests radius ÷ 5 for the number of expected targets within a spherical area, so for a Fireball sized effect, that should be 4 targets. That would mean a total sacrificed value of 101.6 damage.
If you stack Quickened + Heightened with big spells in order to free up your main action for another spell, then we're looking at the value that cantrips can provide, compared to just using Heightened on the big spells and forgoing the bonus action. Note that while you can Quicken a cantrip, you still can't cast anything but a cantrip as the main action, so that's not a valid substitute configuration.
If you cast 3 big spells, that will take 3 turns after you activate Sorcery Incarnate, which means 4 total rounds of casting. While 3 rounds is the average, big fights are going to often last longer, so I'm fine with using this. We can cast a cantrip on the round of casting SI, since SI is already a bonus action spell. That gives us 4 cantrips, which means they need to average at least 25.4 damage each to make up for the sacrificed 5th level spell.
Each die is worth an average of 5.5. With a 60% hit rate, that becomes 3.3. With advantage, that becomes 4.62. So the totals with advantage:
Level 9 Fire Bolt damage: 9.24
Level 9 Fire Bolt damage for Draconic: 13.44
Level 11 Fire Bolt damage: 13.86
Level 11 Fire Bolt damage for Draconic: 18.06
Level 17 Fire Bolt damage: 18.48
Level 17 Fire Bolt damage for Draconic: 22.68
So Fire Bolt won't reach that even at level 17 with the Draconic damage boost plus advantage on the attack roll.
However, if we're willing to play close to the front lines, we can bump up the damage, both from cantrips and the wing flaps.
With Draconic Exhalation, the expected number of targets hit in a 15' cone is 2.
Only the first attack in the Exhalation will get the +5 Cha damage from Elemental Affinity. Both get advantage on the attack roll. Since the attack rolls are separate, they get their own calculation on average damage, which will be 4.20 damage per die if we don't use Empower. So:
Level 9 Sorcerous Burst/Exhalation: 11.256 + 7.056 = 18.312
Level 11 Sorcerous Burst/Exhalation: 14.784 + 10.584 = 25.368
Level 17 Sorcerous Burst/Exhalation: 18.312 + 14.112 = 32.424
So we actually break even at level 11. At level 14, with the wing flap from Dragon Wings, we'd pull into the positive.
A 15' square (from above, if we use flight) is expected to hit 3 targets, doing 5 damage each, for a total of 15 additional damage. A 35' square (surrounding the sorcerer if he stays on the ground) is expected to hit 7 targets. I'll stay with the smaller expected result.
Since this happens each turn, it adds directly to the cantrip damage for these calculations, putting us at about 40 at level 14, and 47 at level 17. Well ahead of the break-even point.
Summary:
Excluding the subclass, and using Fire Bolt, there doesn't appear to be any way for the Sorcery Incarnate tax to be worthwhile.
For the Draconic subclass, using Sorcerous Burst + Draconic Exhalation, plus the wing flaps, it pulls well ahead of break-even, doing about 86 more damage over 4 rounds than we're giving up by casting the 5th level spell (assuming we have enough targets to hit with AOE damage).
We'd also going to want to be at least 14th level in order to have a high enough damage on the cantrip, enough high level spell slots, and for Dragon Wings to come online in order to make this work. Even then it will be tight. Level 15 will be better for the extra spell slot, and we also get Sorcerous Restoration for more sorcery points.
So it's possible for this to be worthwhile, but only with a subclass that specializes in the limited damage-boosting build necessary to work around the limits of the original spell, and only at much higher levels than the spell itself.
At this point, why don't this sorcerer just...cast fireball? It is not like warlock need to rely on EB, all the troubles of action economy and need to stay close and personal with 3 enemies for multiple rounds can just replaced with fireball. And considering different level spell slot don't have same value, If cast fireball once isn't enough why not cast twice? And empower each of them only cost 2 point.
EDIT: And JC said in YT video that spell is for sorcerer into "arcade mod", but spamming one cantrip over and over for 4 round just pathetic. You know what I have dreamed last night? I dreamed that sorcerer don't use spell slot, they get rid of sorcerer point and everything is fued by spell point. This spell only do one simple thing: reduce spell point cost for every spell they cast. Done, very "arcade" and without those convolute metamagic nonesense. And the new twin magic become meaningful again, because the 1 or 2 point less to cast can be translated to 1 to 2 more cheap metamagic or first level spell.
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Kinematics
Hero
Aside: The 8d6 spell with a 50% resist rate:
Unresisted average damage: 28
Average damage with 50% resist rate: 21
Average Heightened with 25% resist: 24.5
Unresisted average Empowered damage: 33.89
Average Empowered with 50% resist: 25.4
Average Heightened+Empowered with 25% resist: 29.65
You'd need to hit 6 targets in order for Heightened to give as much benefit as hitting 1 additional target. If Careful Spell can let you hit one additional target, it's likely a better choice than Heightened, at least for a pure damage spell.
However it does remind me of Arcane Eruption, where a failed save means not just more damage, but an inflicted status. 75% incapacitated or blinded or whatever beats 50% affected by a good margin. And its effect only lasts one round, and isn't concentration, so it's a good candidate to be casting round after round.
If you keep one die that's a 1 through 4, and Empower the rest, the average damage on Arcane Eruption would be 23.75, which is 70% of the damage you could do with an 8d6 pure damage spell. After resistances, assuming Heightened, average damage would be 20.78.
You'll probably want to use Careful Spell as well, so that you can cast it into melee without affecting your allies. That combos well with the wing flap damage, which allows you to select who you hit with that damage. Though you'd be giving up Quickened, so no combo with cantrips for more damage.
So, Careful+Heightened+Empowered Arcane Eruption, which does middling damage, but can seriously shut down the enemy forces — a choice of incapacitated, blinded, frightened, or poisoned each turn means they'll either be unable to do anything, or have disadvantage on any attacks, and maybe advantage for your allies — actually feels like an effective use of Sorcery Incarnate. A 4th level spell is much easier to maintain spell slots for.
You've given up a ton of damage vs the ideal, but the tradeoff is that you can freely position the spell to hit as many enemies as possible, rather than having to work around where you're "allowed" to cast in order to avoid hitting allies. The white room calculations for the pure damage setups are actually likely to be severely hindered in actual use by the positioning necessary to avoid hitting allies (assumining Quickened+Heightened, which I now think is sub-optimal).
Plus, a severely hindered enemy force is easier for the sorcerer to move around in, which makes the wing flap damage easier to use with a larger area.
Aside: Looking at the DMG suggested values, the square and the circle calculations for expected targets contradict each other, so I'm readjusting expectations. The circle should most likely be diameter ÷ 5 instead of radius ÷ 5.
So Arcane Eruption should be a 40' diameter sphere, and Dragon Wings can affect targets in a 35' diameter circle (or a bit less if you're flying). That gives an expected number of targets of around 7, but with some of those being your allies. Probably 3-5 enemies.
It still leaves you little point in getting advantage on attack rolls. I guess you can use it for the cantrip on the turn you cast Sorcery Incarnate itself.
This would cost sorcery points of: 1 (Extend Sorcery Incarnate) + 4 per Arcane Eruption (Careful+Heightened+Empower) = 13 for 3 AE casts over 4 rounds. At level 9 you have 1 5th level spell slot for SI, and 3 4th level spell slots for AE, so that's covered. At level 9 you have 9 sorcery points, plus the 1-4 you get back from casting Sorcery Incarnate itself. So if you converted one 3rd level spell slot, you'd have just barely enough to pull this off if you rolled a 1 on SI, assuming you started fresh for the day.
Recalculation of damage build:
The Heightened for damage is not as useful as Careful. If Careful allows you to hit more targets, it's more useful than a bonus cantrip, assuming you Quickened the spell. Heightened over multiple targets is also likely to be more damage than a bonus cantrip.
Thus it's more reasonable to just use Heightened+Careful for pure damage spells as well. That's also a 3 SP cost per cast instead of 4 SP.
Is that worth the cost of casting a 5th level spell first?
If you could hit 6 targets with a Careful spell, using Heightened increases that to an effective 7 targets, and wing flaps could increase it to an effective 8. So an extra 2 targets' worth of damage per turn (or +1/3 damage done). That would roughly break even after 3 turns.
Summary:
Arcane Eruption feels like a good use of Sorcery Incarnate, even if you're doing a good bit less raw damage. Both Heightened and Careful are very valuable contributors to its usefulness.
A pure damage focus would need to last at least 4 rounds after casting Sorcery Incarnate to really be worthwhile, I think.
There is almost no value at all in the advantage on attack rolls. Every scenario I can think of would be better served with a different spell. Maybe Crown of Stars, since that lasts an hour without concentration, and allows you to make attack rolls as a bonus action. Since we're not using the bonus action anymore, it's freed up for that purpose.
Unresisted average damage: 28
Average damage with 50% resist rate: 21
Average Heightened with 25% resist: 24.5
Unresisted average Empowered damage: 33.89
Average Empowered with 50% resist: 25.4
Average Heightened+Empowered with 25% resist: 29.65
You'd need to hit 6 targets in order for Heightened to give as much benefit as hitting 1 additional target. If Careful Spell can let you hit one additional target, it's likely a better choice than Heightened, at least for a pure damage spell.
However it does remind me of Arcane Eruption, where a failed save means not just more damage, but an inflicted status. 75% incapacitated or blinded or whatever beats 50% affected by a good margin. And its effect only lasts one round, and isn't concentration, so it's a good candidate to be casting round after round.
If you keep one die that's a 1 through 4, and Empower the rest, the average damage on Arcane Eruption would be 23.75, which is 70% of the damage you could do with an 8d6 pure damage spell. After resistances, assuming Heightened, average damage would be 20.78.
You'll probably want to use Careful Spell as well, so that you can cast it into melee without affecting your allies. That combos well with the wing flap damage, which allows you to select who you hit with that damage. Though you'd be giving up Quickened, so no combo with cantrips for more damage.
So, Careful+Heightened+Empowered Arcane Eruption, which does middling damage, but can seriously shut down the enemy forces — a choice of incapacitated, blinded, frightened, or poisoned each turn means they'll either be unable to do anything, or have disadvantage on any attacks, and maybe advantage for your allies — actually feels like an effective use of Sorcery Incarnate. A 4th level spell is much easier to maintain spell slots for.
You've given up a ton of damage vs the ideal, but the tradeoff is that you can freely position the spell to hit as many enemies as possible, rather than having to work around where you're "allowed" to cast in order to avoid hitting allies. The white room calculations for the pure damage setups are actually likely to be severely hindered in actual use by the positioning necessary to avoid hitting allies (assumining Quickened+Heightened, which I now think is sub-optimal).
Plus, a severely hindered enemy force is easier for the sorcerer to move around in, which makes the wing flap damage easier to use with a larger area.
Aside: Looking at the DMG suggested values, the square and the circle calculations for expected targets contradict each other, so I'm readjusting expectations. The circle should most likely be diameter ÷ 5 instead of radius ÷ 5.
So Arcane Eruption should be a 40' diameter sphere, and Dragon Wings can affect targets in a 35' diameter circle (or a bit less if you're flying). That gives an expected number of targets of around 7, but with some of those being your allies. Probably 3-5 enemies.
It still leaves you little point in getting advantage on attack rolls. I guess you can use it for the cantrip on the turn you cast Sorcery Incarnate itself.
This would cost sorcery points of: 1 (Extend Sorcery Incarnate) + 4 per Arcane Eruption (Careful+Heightened+Empower) = 13 for 3 AE casts over 4 rounds. At level 9 you have 1 5th level spell slot for SI, and 3 4th level spell slots for AE, so that's covered. At level 9 you have 9 sorcery points, plus the 1-4 you get back from casting Sorcery Incarnate itself. So if you converted one 3rd level spell slot, you'd have just barely enough to pull this off if you rolled a 1 on SI, assuming you started fresh for the day.
Recalculation of damage build:
The Heightened for damage is not as useful as Careful. If Careful allows you to hit more targets, it's more useful than a bonus cantrip, assuming you Quickened the spell. Heightened over multiple targets is also likely to be more damage than a bonus cantrip.
Thus it's more reasonable to just use Heightened+Careful for pure damage spells as well. That's also a 3 SP cost per cast instead of 4 SP.
Is that worth the cost of casting a 5th level spell first?
If you could hit 6 targets with a Careful spell, using Heightened increases that to an effective 7 targets, and wing flaps could increase it to an effective 8. So an extra 2 targets' worth of damage per turn (or +1/3 damage done). That would roughly break even after 3 turns.
Summary:
Arcane Eruption feels like a good use of Sorcery Incarnate, even if you're doing a good bit less raw damage. Both Heightened and Careful are very valuable contributors to its usefulness.
A pure damage focus would need to last at least 4 rounds after casting Sorcery Incarnate to really be worthwhile, I think.
There is almost no value at all in the advantage on attack rolls. Every scenario I can think of would be better served with a different spell. Maybe Crown of Stars, since that lasts an hour without concentration, and allows you to make attack rolls as a bonus action. Since we're not using the bonus action anymore, it's freed up for that purpose.
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