4 years of 5E on Amazon: same old same old

[GreyLord]

The wikipedia thread has some data in it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSR_(company)

We know that the 5e PHB has now far outsold 4e and 3.5. 3e was only in print a few years and there is no way they would have dropped it if it had sustained sales in the way that 5e has. That brings us back to AD&D

TSR almost went bankrupt multiple times in the 1e and 2e eras. But it was badly managed. We know that 2e PHB did not sale as well as the 1e one, nor, from what I have seen the 3e one. That would then put it below 5e.

As for TSR revenue in the 2e era, thats an entirely different story. They had several releases every month for D&D, month in and month out. They also sold other games.

So they had some revenue. They weren't especially profitable, did not treat their employees very well, and released a lot of material that has long been forgotten (several releases every month). They ultimately alienated a large part of their own fan base. But sure, they had some revenue.

This is true. Something else to take into consideration with the gross sales. Dragon magazine was regularly selling over 100 K during the fad years. That brought in a couple 100K a month at least. Spread over a few months that was quite a bit.

That was probably the most successful D&D magazine ever. It was still having print runs in excess of 100K in the early 90s (printed, not necessarily sold).

The 2e PHB had around 100K print runs if I remember the information right, and recently brought up that there were over 10 print runs (for over a million printed...not necessarily sold though).

3e supposedly sold at least a million hardcopies in the first year (for over 20 million in sales, they printed them cheap so they could sell them for less money at $20 a pop rather than the $25-30 if they hadn't done it that way) and I think it fell to around 800 K hardback sales the next year for the core rulebooks? (so around 16 million for core rules...that doesn't include the other books and modules and accessories and stuff).

For comparison, I think the subscriptions for Dragonmag was around 30K during this time period?? (people from Paizo may know the better numbers).

It would be interesting for a public release of the actual hard number sales of 5e year after year for a comparison to these.

Even with the sales of 5e, I'm not sure there are enough players to support a magazine these days of that scale. There are RPG magz out (both online and hardcopy) but I don't think any of them come close to the magazine sales back then.

It would be great if WotC released HARD numbers somewhere for comparison of sales numbers (or at least print runs).

 

[Mistwell]

How about, I saw numbers for the 90s (anything in the 80s IS a guestimate on my part).

But, really don't care. The hard numbers WERE published in at least one or two magazine articles in reference to the early 90s, but I cannot remember who the guys who did the interview for the articles were. It was a magazine, but unsure which one it was. I think it was a hobby magazine of some sort where they were given the numbers from the department. It should be noted though, those numbers (I believe) were twisted, so that's gross, NOT NET (big difference).

You can understand that if you can't even remember what magazine name it had, that people might want to check it themselves to see if specific numbers you do recall are accurate, right?

In truth, most of the stuff I don't have a quarrel with until people start making crazy claims about D&D being more prominent and widespread today than it was in the early 80s.

I genuinely think it is. I think a smaller portion of the population play it right now than in the early 80s, but that the population has grown so much since the early 80s that even with a smaller percentage of the population playing it right now, the total number of people playing it is in fact greater than in the early 80s.

Even with the sales numbers I gave for the early 90s, and D&D still being in normal stores rather the simply the bookstores and specialty stores it is today, I wouldn't have a problem with someone claiming D&D is bigger today than it was in the 90s and maybe bigger than 2e.

D&D is in the most "normal" of stores on the planet, and selling extremely well there. And that store is Amazon. It's the largest company in the world, it's selling the most number of retail products in the world, and it's far far far larger than any department stores you're thinking of from the 80s and 90s. In fact it's larger than most of them combined.

It's when they try to claim D&D is bigger now than the 80s without really anything we can back it up on. I don't think it was, and have personal estimates to say it wasn't, but right now as far as hard numbers, I don't think we have enough to say whether it really is or isn't.

The thing is we're getting some data that can in fact back it up but I'd like to know what contrary data we're trying to beat here is to begin with. But yes we are getting some better data these days from different sources, and it is starting to suggest it's bigger than it was in the 80s.

With hard numbers though...sure I can believe WotC is making a bucket load of money (MtG regularly makes an appearance in the company meetings and in the stock calls).

TSR didn't have MtG (or some of the other properties WotC has) and wasn't leveraging them. We are comparing the RPG department (and if we want to stretch, the book sales departments).

TSR had a HUGE HUGE HUGE number of products aside from just D&D. You quoted "TSR" numbers and not "D&D" numbers. Which is one reason why I asked you to back up your claims, because I suspected you were fudging it all as "D&D" when they had sooooooo many products at that time.

 

[Jester David]

I'd guess that TSR in the early 80s would have been making 50 to 60 million at least (120 to 180 million in our dollars) and perhaps upwards of 100 to 150 million. HOWEVER, a LOT of that was in soft money that was being criminally (but we can't prove it) manipulated by some pretty intense individuals who were spending it like play monopoly money (and almost caused TSR to crash due to mismanagement, long before it went bankrupt ten years later). In otherwords, it's money that never found it's way to the books or filings. It makes it untrackable today (unless we suddenly unhouse a treasure trove of documents for the IRS to finally prosecute) and why it gets so hard and murky to know just how much TSR under Gygax and the Blooms made, how many copies were actually sold of the original PHB and ensuing printings, and how it was actually doing.

The big problem with this statement (other than the lack of any and all citations) is that you compare TSR with D&D.
TSR had numerous other games. The Marvel Superheroes RPG, Boot Hill, Gamma World, Dungeon!, Flash Gordon, and more. They had cards. They had dice games. They had two competing versions of D&D.

This is true. Something else to take into consideration with the gross sales. Dragon magazine was regularly selling over 100 K during the fad years. That brought in a couple 100K a month at least. Spread over a few months that was quite a bit.

In 1984, Dragon Magazine sold for $3.
Of that, $0.60 went to TSR. So, no, they weren't making $100k each month. Plus, that $20,000 is the gross income. You take that and deduct the money paid for the dozen regular features, the half-dozen monthly pieces, plus the salaries of the dozen or so editors, the publisher, the marketing staff, layout, art director, etc.

The money it actually made was a lot less.

Even with the sales of 5e, I'm not sure there are enough players to support a magazine these days of that scale. There are RPG magz out (both online and hardcopy) but I don't think any of them come close to the magazine sales back then.

The magazine business itself is largely dead.

What's in a magazine? Previews of upcoming books. That's free on the net. Advice articles on running the game. Free on the net on ever gamer's blog. Forums to discuss the game through letters. Replaced by sites like this. Semi-official content. Replaced by the DMsGuild.

There's almost nothing Dragon has to offer that people will pay for.

It would be interesting for a public release of the actual hard number sales of 5e year after year for a comparison to these.

It would be great if WotC released HARD numbers somewhere for comparison of sales numbers (or at least print runs).

Never going to happen. WotC is owned by a publicly traded company. They will never share sales.

What we do have is this:
https://twitter.com/mikemearls/status/764241988128419840?lang=en

And that was two years ago. Two years of continued and steady sales. 5e long ago passed 2e and very likely has passed 1e. (But it probably hasn't passed 1e + Basic.)

 

[Oofta]

All I know is that according to WOTC, D&D just had it's best year ever and continues to grow. It had a near death experience and now it's doing well. In addition, I see people of all ages - from kids to old fogies like me playing at our local game store. And we're turning people away because we don't have enough tables. Way back when it was mostly high school and college kids.

Beyond that, I don't really care.

 

[Parmandur]

Most current D&D players weren't teenagers in the 2E years, they are teenagers or twenty-somethings now, though it is a broad population.

I have seen D&D products in the toy aisle at Target, next to Settlers of Catan. A casual Google shows that it can be procured in physical WalMart locations. It is not a special store product.

 

[ad_hoc]

Role-Playing Mastery
by Gary Gygax, 1987

"Knowledgeable estimates place the number of avid players of role games in the neighborhood of three and one-half million in North America, five million worldwide. That is a lot of players,
and these are enthusiasts. These figures do not include occasional participants in role-playing games. The number of persons who have played at least once is certainly twice as large as the number of enthusiasts."

In 1987 Gary Gygax estimated that there were 5 million active players, worldwide, of any RPG and 10 million total who have ever played an RPG.

Nathan Stewart, D&D's brand director and executive producer, estimated that there were 12-15 million players in 2017 in NA alone. And D&D is continuing to sell better and better.

It's not even close.

 

[Zardnaar]

A lot of it is guess work. I have hard numbers for what you quote above (23 to 27 million).

That said, GUESSTIMATES put it far above that.

We know from hard figures put out that it was around 90 million in 1990 and 91, and around 100 million for a short while after that (and then boom, we don't talk about how bad that got after it all came crashing down...quick too).

Going backwards, I'm pretty certain with the market penetration and how far it had reached, there were more sales and more players in the early 80s during the fad of AD&D. In 1982-1985 it was crazy.

Estimates of 25 million AD&D gamers during the time period (well AD&D and D&D). We know it was enough for Gary to go play with the big guys in Hollywood and play and pay at their level (NOT CHEAP) for a little bit. His expenses weren't even the ones that were hurting the company.

I'd guess that TSR in the early 80s would have been making 50 to 60 million at least (120 to 180 million in our dollars) and perhaps upwards of 100 to 150 million. HOWEVER, a LOT of that was in soft money that was being criminally (but we can't prove it) manipulated by some pretty intense individuals who were spending it like play monopoly money (and almost caused TSR to crash due to mismanagement, long before it went bankrupt ten years later). In otherwords, it's money that never found it's way to the books or filings. It makes it untrackable today (unless we suddenly unhouse a treasure trove of documents for the IRS to finally prosecute) and why it gets so hard and murky to know just how much TSR under Gygax and the Blooms made, how many copies were actually sold of the original PHB and ensuing printings, and how it was actually doing.

If it followed standard procedures of the 2e PHB and we had 100K printruns, that would mean we have at least 1.7 million copies of the 1e PHB that were printed (but not necessarily sold).

Modules on the otherhand had FAR SMALLER printings (some being less than 1000). Some modules sold a gazillion copies (well, to exceed that of 100K copies) during the fad. 20K wasn't odd in the early 80s. Later on, during the 90s you may be lucky to sell 10K copies. This is why I think it is almost definite that 1e outsold 2e in every way, shape, and fashion. The problem, we don't have the hard numbers to back it up except extrapolation and guesswork.

Without the hard records though, it makes it hard to make many types of claims that people seem to want to make in this thread on both sides of the equation.

Numbers I have for the early 90's is 40 million, adjusted for inflation that is maybe around 100 million (off the top of my head).

There is a difference between profit and revenue though, and at the time the D&D novels were worth more than the RPG line so once again I don't think WoTC is out right lying and we don't know what metrics they are using. I don't think D&D is at peak revenue (adjusted for inflation) as peak golden age or peak 90's. They might be for peak revenue (pre inflation), profit, PHB sold (2E had a lot of splat), most players playing.

TSR lost an average of 2-3 million a year 85-96, I think most of it was from 94 onwards (Dragondice, novel returns, lavish box sets sold at a loss). TSR revenue apparent was around 40 million but novels were more than the RPG so that means D&D was making less than 20 million which would make WoTC statement technically correct. They also had other product lines that while worth not a lot compared to D&D could shave a bit more of that 40 million figure. Considering the amount of material they are releasing (TSR spammed adventures in the 980's 90's they spammed everything).

The only thing they can really do is provide sales figures for 5E PHB. And since they won't do that we can't 100% say anything for certain beyond "5E is doing very very well" IMHO.

 

[Parmandur]

Role-Playing Mastery
by Gary Gygax, 1987

"Knowledgeable estimates place the number of avid players of role games in the neighborhood of three and one-half million in North America, five million worldwide. That is a lot of players,
and these are enthusiasts. These figures do not include occasional participants in role-playing games. The number of persons who have played at least once is certainly twice as large as the number of enthusiasts."

In 1987 Gary Gygax estimated that there were 5 million active players, worldwide, of any RPG and 10 million total who have ever played an RPG.

Nathan Stewart, D&D's brand director and executive producer, estimated that there were 12-15 million players in 2017 in NA alone. And D&D is continuing to sell better and better.

It's not even close.

But that threatens the Narrative of Decline from the Golden Age!!!


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Parmandur]

Numbers I have for the early 90's is 40 million, adjusted for inflation that is maybe around 100 million (off the top of my head).

There is a difference between profit and revenue though, and at the time the D&D novels were worth more than the RPG line so once again I don't think WoTC is out right lying and we don't know what metrics they are using. I don't think D&D is at peak revenue (adjusted for inflation) as peak golden age or peak 90's. They might be for peak revenue (pre inflation), profit, PHB sold (2E had a lot of splat), most players playing.

TSR lost an average of 2-3 million a year 85-96, I think most of it was from 94 onwards (Dragondice, novel returns, lavish box sets sold at a loss). TSR revenue apparent was around 40 million but novels were more than the RPG so that means D&D was making less than 20 million which would make WoTC statement technically correct. They also had other product lines that while worth not a lot compared to D&D could shave a bit more of that 40 million figure. Considering the amount of material they are releasing (TSR spammed adventures in the 980's 90's they spammed everything).

The only thing they can really do is provide sales figures for 5E PHB. And since they won't do that we can't 100% say anything for certain beyond "5E is doing very very well" IMHO.

WotC doesn't even care about selling PHB, compared to getting people to play. Hence why the rules are so liberally available for free. The books are premium items, once they get someone into the game and the brand.

 

[TerraDave]

Its hard to get good quantitative or qualitative data. Hence these threads..

So here is something on 3e>2e

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/features/9292-The-Ghosts-of-D-D-Past.2

I have seen similar statements elsewhere, but they could always be taken with a grain of salt.

We do know from the amazon data we could get that 5e was way ahead of 3.5 and they had to launch 3.5 due to 3e lagging.

Again that just leaves 1e. As noted above, there are statements that 5e has done better by some metrics.

Does that take into account 1 million+ B and X sets sold, or a dozen other things, we can't really be sure.