D&D 4E 4E's aggressive pace: Too much, too fast?

[I'm A Banana]

I think they've done a fairly good job, despite all of our bitching over the years.

Eh. Malcontents are essential for anything's good health.

 

[Insight]

There's no way WOTC is waiting any longer than absolutely necessary to put 4E on the shelves. You guys underestimate how much money it's going to cost WOTC to either put out 3E products that no one will buy or not put out any new products and not make any money.

 

[AGFlynn]

I'm not underestimating anything. Just think how much money they're going to lose if we don't like the new edition.

 

[AGFlynn]

Eh. Malcontents are essential for anything's good health.

True dat!

 

[tenkar]

I'm not underestimating anything. Just think how much money they're going to lose if we don't like the new edition.

Alot less money then if they didn't publish anything for 6 months or longer.

An imperfect 4e will still sell well whereas having no products on the shelves will sell nothing.

WotC has to answer to a high power (and i'm not referring to hebrew national franks ... I'm referring to Hasbro and their accounting team

 

[Zurai]

Not to mention that all RPG sales have absolutely plummeted since the announcement. I'm friends with the owner of my FLGS and he currently sells ~1 RPG book a week. Previous to the 4E announcement, he'd sell a couple a day. If the shop didn't also deal with minis and card games, he'd be out of business before 4E came out as it is. If WotC delayed releasing 4E for a further 6 months, there would be few places left to sell the books to.

 

[vazanar]

Not to mention that all RPG sales have absolutely plummeted since the announcement. I'm friends with the owner of my FLGS and he currently sells ~1 RPG book a week. Previous to the 4E announcement, he'd sell a couple a day. If the shop didn't also deal with minis and card games, he'd be out of business before 4E came out as it is. If WotC delayed releasing 4E for a further 6 months, there would be few places left to sell the books to.

Between 4e and WOTC's general interactions with rpg materials the two FLGS near me are no longer carrying rpgs at all. Doing a sell out of the old and not competing with DI or edition changes. To be fair most of their buisness is cards, minis and comics. So they might have done it anyway.

 

[AGFlynn]

Alot less money then if they didn't publish anything for 6 months or longer.

No, if they waited six months and it sold well, the revenue would simply be deferred to a later quarter. Though 3.5 revenue would probably tank.

An imperfect 4e will still sell well whereas having no products on the shelves will sell nothing.

I disagree that an imperfect product would sell well. There is a 3.5 edition out there in use that won't just vanish because 4E appears. Initial bad reviews would guarantee second print run sales below expectations as the readership shrugs.
Do I think that will happen? No - I think 4E will probably do well.

WotC has to answer to a high power (and i'm not referring to hebrew national franks ... I'm referring to Hasbro and their accounting team

True, but D&D is only a prestige brand for Hasbro. It's not a money maker like Transformers (hell, even Mr. Potato Head) will be this Christmas. My theory - and it's just that (though somewhat informed - business editor for a national news service) - is that Hasbro is overjoyed with D&D when it breaks even. It acquired D&D only because it was after the (relatively) humongous revenue from WotC's CCG side.

I'm not really expecting that WotC could be convinced to delay the first printing, just wondering if maybe a gun was jumped here. Which would be too bad.

 

[AGFlynn]

Not to mention that all RPG sales have absolutely plummeted since the announcement. I'm friends with the owner of my FLGS and he currently sells ~1 RPG book a week. Previous to the 4E announcement, he'd sell a couple a day. If the shop didn't also deal with minis and card games, he'd be out of business before 4E came out as it is. If WotC delayed releasing 4E for a further 6 months, there would be few places left to sell the books to.

I'm not sure WotC gives a *#$(#$&*% about the old FLGS store any more, given the existence of Amazon.com et. al. - hey, look what they did to their own stores.
However, my two LGS's still manage decent RPG sales.

 

[AGFlynn]

I can also see how this can look like a huge project but, remember, they're not designing a new gaming system, they're revamping the d20 system. I don't think it will be as massive as we all think once we see it.

Yeah, but don't forget that even the small changes can take a disproportionate amount of resources. When I worked on the Monsternomicon for Privateer Press, it took six months to produce six finished monsters, from initial concept to publication. Design, editing, balancing, consultation, redesign, artwork, a wee bit o' playtesting, final edits, approvals, the final check to ensure no OGL violations.
Imagine redisigning a whole gaming system plus the flavour elements! Sheesh!
Seriously, my hat will so be off to Scott Rouse and team if they pull this one off.