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4E 5th edition - 2015? Or is 4ed the last?

Mercurius

Legend
Disclaimer: I know, I know--it is way too early to be talking about 5th, but let's have a bit of fun.

So we've got, according to Wikipedia:

OD&D - 1974
1ed AD&D - 1977-79 (whatever that means)
2ed AD&D - 1989
3ed D&D - 2000
3.5 ed D&D - 2003
4ed D&D - 2008

If we separate it out into the four main editions, we've got:

1ed - 1977
2ed - 1989
3ed - 2000
4ed - 2008

This gives us gaps of 12, 11, and 8 years.

Based upon this, it would follow that 5ed would come out no later than seven years from now, in 2015--in fact, based upon that number pattern, seven years would be the most likely gap.

Now I've read many folks voice the opinion that there will be no 5ed, especially due to the advance in computer technology--by 2015 we might have full-immersion virtual reality. But even if we did, wouldn't people still play table-top Dungeons & Dragons? I think so, in the same way that people still play the violin or the drums, or still write by hand or paint with oils and acrylics. Of course the number of table-top gamers will probably go down--even drastically--but my guess is that there will always be a core of diehard players, at least as long as Gens-X and Y are alive and relatively healthy (my guess is that there are significantly fewer table-top gamers born after 1990, at least compared to the Gen-X late 60s and 70s and Gen-Y 80s).

So what do you think? Will there be a 5ed? And does 2015 sound about right? Or is 4ed the last true table-top edition of D&D?
 

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Alzrius

The EN World kitten
I feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there'll be a 5th edition at some point. 2015 seems like a realistic guess, though I think it might take a year or two longer.
 


Glyfair

First Post
Mercurius said:
So what do you think? Will there be a 5ed? And does 2015 sound about right? Or is 4ed the last true table-top edition of D&D?
I believe The Rouse has stated that WotC has determined that 8-10 years is about the right time for a new edition. So, your date of 2015 is pretty close.
 

Mercurius

Legend
The Grumpy Celt said:
Well, the world is supposed to end in 2012, so there may not be time for a 5th editon.

Just in time for 4.5 ed ;)

Quick digression: The WORLD isn't supposed to end--at least not according the Mayan Calendar upon which that date is derived--rather, the current AGE, and a new one will begin (the term "world" was often used, but not in an absolute sense, more as an "age" or era of time). End digression.
 

Jhulae

First Post
Mercurius said:
Just in time for 4.5 ed ;)

Quick digression: The WORLD isn't supposed to end--at least not according the Mayan Calendar upon which that date is derived--rather, the current AGE, and a new one will begin (the term "world" was often used, but not in an absolute sense, more as an "age" or era of time). End digression.

Exactly! It's just like Shadowrun predicted!
 

Delta

First Post
My wild guess for the end of D&D publishing (based on extrapolating reports of new players entering the game) is around 2018, so yes I do think there'll be a 5th Edition.

The story with 1st Ed. is that the introduction of hardcover books didn't get accomplished all in one year. 1E MM 1977, PHB 1978, DMG 1979.
 

Thurbane

First Post
Alzrius said:
I feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there'll be a 5th edition at some point. 2015 seems like a realistic guess, though I think it might take a year or two longer.
Agreed - this is as good a guess as any. I've got more than enough 3(.5) material to keep me going until 2015 anyway.

It's like Windows - skip every second version (95, 2000, Vista) :p
 

trancejeremy

First Post
Mercurius said:
Just in time for 4.5 ed ;)

Quick digression: The WORLD isn't supposed to end--at least not according the Mayan Calendar upon which that date is derived--rather, the current AGE, and a new one will begin (the term "world" was often used, but not in an absolute sense, more as an "age" or era of time). End digression.

People turn into Orks, Elves, Dwarves or Trolls is what happens. (At least according to Shadowrun)

(Okay, I think elves and dwarves start getting born, while people already alive turn into Orks and Trolls)
 

The Grumpy Celt

First Post
Mercurius said:
...and a new one will begin...

Feh. So what. This new age will include nothing but Reality TV shows, the only music will be from boy bands, the work week will last eight days and there won't be any RPGs at all! The world might as well end.

Heh.

Yeah, assuming the market still supports it, then 2014/2015 will be about the time for a new edition.
 

Turanil

First Post
Alzrius said:
I feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there'll be a 5th edition at some point. 2015 seems like a realistic guess, though I think it might take a year or two longer.
I also feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there will not be a 5th edition. With the nearby recession and oil peak already there, Hasbro will disappear when millions of ruined gamers will spend what money they can scrap just to survive. If gaming companies continue to exist, it will be small ones who sell games contained in one or two cheap books only, and don't need to sell large print runs to go on...
 

Elder-Basilisk

First Post
2010. By that time, there will be enough splats with different mechanics for every manuever and ability that it will be in the state of late 2nd edition AD&D and there will be popular outcry and demand for a 5th edition.
 

Ranger REG

Explorer
The Grumpy Celt said:
Well, the world is supposed to end in 2012, so there may not be time for a 5th editon.
Ironically, that's looking at the bright side of things. :]

However, should we survive 2012 ... :\ ... 4e will not be the last, unless D&D is as dead as Blue Planet.
 

Nyaricus

First Post
Turanil said:
I also feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there will not be a 5th edition. With the nearby recession and oil peak already there, Hasbro will disappear when millions of ruined gamers will spend what money they can scrap just to survive. If gaming companies continue to exist, it will be small ones who sell games contained in one or two cheap books only, and don't need to sell large print runs to go on...
Actually, economics might mean that books, which you pay a mid-priced one-time fee for, might see a resurgence, in which case we might very well see a 5e, but perhaps more towards 2020 than earlier. Only time will tell.

Addendum: I say this because the current situation of fast-food, cheap thrills and general "use and lose" attitude might very well change in favour of a long-term investment in a game system, which doesn't require technology other than lighting to play, whereas computers are energy-suckers, etc etc.
 
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Ranger REG

Explorer
Nyaricus said:
Actually, economics might mean that books, which you pay a mid-priced one-time fee for, might see a resurgence, in which case we might very well see a 5e, but perhaps more towards 2020 than earlier. Only time will tell.
Hmm. I was expecting 4e to come out in 2010. Obviously I'm going to lose that bet. You'll have to forgive me that I don't believe your above statement.
 

Nyaricus

First Post
Ranger REG said:
Hmm. I was expecting 4e to come out in 2010. Obviously I'm going to lose that bet. You'll have to forgive me that I don't believe your above statement.
Fair enough, although I was expecting 4e more towards 2010 as well. It seems playtesting was rushed for it, and another year under-wraps and another year of play-testing might've worked out the kinks in the system which we'll all find soon enough.

My above statement just reflects the way most people in NA feel about there being another depression looming. I have no idea if it will, but really in regards to entertainment value you can't get much better than a tale-top game. That's why board games are so big for my grandparents generation (the baby boomers' parents) and why they are not so big now, since there has been a shift in culture. And really, the market wouldn't support a new edition, so why bother? If 4e works out well enough, and there is in fact a depression coming, there will be a reasonable delay in any new set of rules. Right now, WotC is just riding the wave, like everyone else (or so it seems).

cheers,
--N
 

jmucchiello

Adventurer
Mercurius said:
Now I've read many folks voice the opinion that there will be no 5ed, especially due to the advance in computer technology--by 2015 we might have full-immersion virtual reality.
The unsolved problem with immersion VR is the walking problem. How do you simulate motion without motion? You really can't without the ability to create forces arbitrarily and localized to the one user. That is not a computer tech, it is gravity tech. And we don't have any of that tech.
 

nick012000

First Post
jmucchiello said:
The unsolved problem with immersion VR is the walking problem. How do you simulate motion without motion? You really can't without the ability to create forces arbitrarily and localized to the one user. That is not a computer tech, it is gravity tech. And we don't have any of that tech.

1. Neural interfaces. You brain thinks your legs are moving, but they aren't.
2. Giant ball-treadmill. It can rotate in any direction, so you can walk without going anywhere.
 



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