D&D 4E 5th edition - 2015? Or is 4ed the last?

[Mercurius]

Disclaimer: I know, I know--it is way too early to be talking about 5th, but let's have a bit of fun.

So we've got, according to Wikipedia:

OD&D - 1974
1ed AD&D - 1977-79 (whatever that means)
2ed AD&D - 1989
3ed D&D - 2000
3.5 ed D&D - 2003
4ed D&D - 2008

If we separate it out into the four main editions, we've got:

1ed - 1977
2ed - 1989
3ed - 2000
4ed - 2008

This gives us gaps of 12, 11, and 8 years.

Based upon this, it would follow that 5ed would come out no later than seven years from now, in 2015--in fact, based upon that number pattern, seven years would be the most likely gap.

Now I've read many folks voice the opinion that there will be no 5ed, especially due to the advance in computer technology--by 2015 we might have full-immersion virtual reality. But even if we did, wouldn't people still play table-top Dungeons & Dragons? I think so, in the same way that people still play the violin or the drums, or still write by hand or paint with oils and acrylics. Of course the number of table-top gamers will probably go down--even drastically--but my guess is that there will always be a core of diehard players, at least as long as Gens-X and Y are alive and relatively healthy (my guess is that there are significantly fewer table-top gamers born after 1990, at least compared to the Gen-X late 60s and 70s and Gen-Y 80s).

So what do you think? Will there be a 5ed? And does 2015 sound about right? Or is 4ed the last true table-top edition of D&D?

 

[Alzrius]

I feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there'll be a 5th edition at some point. 2015 seems like a realistic guess, though I think it might take a year or two longer.

 

[The Grumpy Celt]

Well, the world is supposed to end in 2012, so there may not be time for a 5th editon.

 

[Glyfair]

So what do you think? Will there be a 5ed? And does 2015 sound about right? Or is 4ed the last true table-top edition of D&D?

I believe The Rouse has stated that WotC has determined that 8-10 years is about the right time for a new edition. So, your date of 2015 is pretty close.

 

[Mercurius]

Well, the world is supposed to end in 2012, so there may not be time for a 5th editon.

Just in time for 4.5 ed

Quick digression: The WORLD isn't supposed to end--at least not according the Mayan Calendar upon which that date is derived--rather, the current AGE, and a new one will begin (the term "world" was often used, but not in an absolute sense, more as an "age" or era of time). End digression.

 

[Jhulae]

Just in time for 4.5 ed

Quick digression: The WORLD isn't supposed to end--at least not according the Mayan Calendar upon which that date is derived--rather, the current AGE, and a new one will begin (the term "world" was often used, but not in an absolute sense, more as an "age" or era of time). End digression.

Exactly! It's just like Shadowrun predicted!

 

[Delta]

My wild guess for the end of D&D publishing (based on extrapolating reports of new players entering the game) is around 2018, so yes I do think there'll be a 5th Edition.

The story with 1st Ed. is that the introduction of hardcover books didn't get accomplished all in one year. 1E MM 1977, PHB 1978, DMG 1979.

 

[Thurbane]

I feel cynical enough to say that economics, and not the actual state of the game, make it a certainty that there'll be a 5th edition at some point. 2015 seems like a realistic guess, though I think it might take a year or two longer.

Agreed - this is as good a guess as any. I've got more than enough 3(.5) material to keep me going until 2015 anyway.

It's like Windows - skip every second version (95, 2000, Vista)

 

[trancejeremy]

Just in time for 4.5 ed

Quick digression: The WORLD isn't supposed to end--at least not according the Mayan Calendar upon which that date is derived--rather, the current AGE, and a new one will begin (the term "world" was often used, but not in an absolute sense, more as an "age" or era of time). End digression.

People turn into Orks, Elves, Dwarves or Trolls is what happens. (At least according to Shadowrun)

(Okay, I think elves and dwarves start getting born, while people already alive turn into Orks and Trolls)

 

[The Grumpy Celt]

...and a new one will begin...

Feh. So what. This new age will include nothing but Reality TV shows, the only music will be from boy bands, the work week will last eight days and there won't be any RPGs at all! The world might as well end.

Heh.

Yeah, assuming the market still supports it, then 2014/2015 will be about the time for a new edition.