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D&D 5E 5th Edition has broken Bounded Accuracy

Fanaelialae

Legend
Do you think the dragon will stand around while you find the most valuable item in its hoard? Are you doing this alone? How did you locate its hoard while it is slow roasting you? The average time to recharge the breath weapon is 18 seconds. Do you think a dragon minds waiting 18 seconds between strafes?

A combat found is 6 seconds. So a dragon isn't waiting very long to slow roast you. 18 to 24 seconds between strafes. Not much at all.

If the DM is being unmerciful, you might have to spend your first action making a Perception check to find a valuable item. Then you have 5 more move actions (or more, if you're a rogue or have other movement boosting capabilities) to grab the treasure and leave. That's 150' movement for Joe Average and 240' for a rogue or buffed character. Heck, 2 Dimension Door spells will get you anywhere you want to go and back again, before the average breath time is up.

Having a dragon strafe is smart. Having a dragon strafe with its breath weapon and then just fly around waiting to recharge is boring and not a smart tactic at all except under very specialized circumstances. Presumably, the dragon doesn't know the party's capabilities. Therefore, it doesn't know how strong they are at range. And the recharge is RANDOM. On average it will recharge every 3 rounds, but in a particular combat it might be 10 rounds (if the DMs luck is poor). I've had that sort of thing happen to me while DMing creatures that have recharge abilities.

If the DM wants to play the waiting game with me, then you better believe I'll be using that time to my advantage. Probably by demonstrating to the dragon what a poor idea it is. Even if I can't reach the treasure, I can probably Shatter it. I've heard many complain that money is useless in D&D. It's pretty useful for making a dragon angry!
 

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Celtavian

Dragon Lord
We did contemplate stealing some treasure to lure it out. It's hoard was partially frozen in ice and situated in a recessed cave area that was very hard to stealth to or fight in without...dun, dun, dun...fly. But if we had had range, we could have hammered it in its hoard area.
 

Thing is, if you were truly playing your long lived dragons highly efficiently, then your PC's should never, ever win. There's just too many things the dragon can do. Again, fighting at night means your archers can't hit anything. They are firing blind. I disagree with [MENTION=6787650]Hemlock[/MENTION]'s point about skeletons, since once the dragon gets out of 60 foot range, they don't just have disadvantage, they can only attack by picking squares. Good luck with that. Summoned elemental dies pretty quickly, so, following it around with a light source doesn't work either. Ancient dragons with line breaths have 120 foot range with 120 foot dark vision. Nothing will ever get close enough to illuminate it.

Again, killing PC's is ludicrously easy. The idea that I have to go up CR+5 or 6 encounters to do it is a joke. I can kill PC's quite easily with regular encounters, thank you very much. Been doing it for years. If the DM is actually out to play competitively with the players, the DM will always win.

I don't run attacking in the dark the way you do ("pick a square"). In a game which did, if the party from #284 is attacking in the dark, the simplest and most straightforward way to deal with the problem is to give a torch to several of those 16 Owls (5 ought to be plenty) and give them the job of patrolling above and closing with (thus marking for missile fire) the dragon when it approaches. If any owl ever gets within 40 feet of an Owl, it's lit by dim light, which means it gets hit by the readied actions of all the skeletons. They'll have advantage from being invisible to it, and probably disadvantage from long range (since they're distributed over a 150' by 50' area--obviously you could tweak the area to be larger, and at night larger is more advantageous, but post #284 was showing only how it's impossible for the dragon to win even against a brain-dead approach, so let's just go with my initial 150' by 50'), so they do their full 67.5 damage per round as outlined in #284. The owls have Fly 60 and 120' darkvision, just like the dragon, and they can Ready an action to Dash at the dragon as soon as it approaches within 120'. That drops the distance between them to 60'. It's faster than them, just barely, so it can keep them from getting to 40', but only as long as it doesn't come too deep within the patrol radius, and as long as the Air Elemental (Fly 90) doesn't catch up. How willing do you think an adult red dragon is going to be to run away from the mere sight of a single owl? If it so much as breathes fire the skeletons know its location and hit it (DM's call whether that's disadvantage or regular for both being unseen by each other--you're DMing this hypothetical scenario so let's assume it's disadvantage, so I only do 19.13 damage). It kills 1/16 of the Owls, not even the PCs, at the cost of its breath weapon and a minimum of 19.13 damage. How does anyone imagine this is going to end well for the dragon?

Lair actions are a complete non-factor. Skeletons are immune to poison, and if you prone them they just stand right back up and shoot you, so the only lair action which matters at all is the magma (6d6 = 21 damage in a five-foot radius) which will hit maybe two skeletons (they're dispersed over a 150' by 50' radius, so you're hitting (pi * 5^2) / (150 * 50) = just over 1% of the area and you'll be lucky to catch skeletons together). If the skeletons both fail their saves they'll take about 21 points of damage, but since they have 36 HP each (13 base + 9 from Create Thralls + 16 temp HP from Inspired Leader, granted prior to a short rest) you'll need to hit them twice to kill one, which can't happen on consecutive rounds so it will take the dragon at least three rounds to kill two skeletons (even if they don't disperse from each other, otherwise you only hit one), by which time the dragon itself will be dead because it had to come within 120' of the skeletons to hit them, which means an owl marked it and it's taking somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 to 191 HP of damage (depending on how many owls were able to attack it this turn and whether it ate any opportunity attacks). In fact it could be taking somewhat more than that because now all the PCs with Spell Sniper get to attack it at advantage because it can't see them, but let's handwave that for now and say it's "only" 100 damage per round. It's still not going to kill even a single skeleton before dying.

Furthermore, since we're playing at night, the PCs themselves will not only be dispersed, they'll be sneaking (as best they can with a huge group of skeletons tagging along) and so will the owls. PCs will have Pass Without Trace up from the Shadow Monk, and the dragon has disadvantage to perceive them, so odds are reasonably good that even the paladin with Dex 11 can beat the dragon's 18 Perception-at-disadvantage. (He needs to roll Stealth 19 total, and he's got +15 total because his Dex is odd--under RAW he'd have +14--and the bard has Enhanced Ability (Dexterity) on him to cancel out heavy armor disadvantage, just so he doesn't feel left out. So even the paladin has an 80% chance of sneaking up on the dragon, because Pass Without Trace rocks.) The dragon will know where the owls with torches are, and it will probably know where most of the skeletons are (they have only a 15% chance to beat its perception) and even where most of the owls are (25% chance to beat dragon's perception), but the PCs will be a lurking knife in the darkness.

And that's kind of the point, for me. Risk is so easy to calculate that rolling dice just isn't interesting. What's interesting is uncertainty, not knowing what the odds are because you don't have all the information, so you don't know what preparations to make. In this case the risk is so high for the dragon that it might as well just give up and die or something (flee to a new homeland?), irrespective of the uncertainty. I think it is more fun to give the dragons sorcerer levels, not least because that inflicts uncertainty on the PCs. What spells does it have? How will it use them? (Shield + Blur is a hard counter for skeleton archers and Owls alike.)

But a regular dragon is toast against an 11th level party, or at least against this 11th level party, even without them doing any fancy tricks. I don't think I'm playing them particularly smart, these are just the obvious things for a party to do when it's built to be well-rounded against all kinds of threats in a game which implements Bounded Accuracy. Leverage ranged firepower, stay dispersed but within mutual support range, make sure you have multiple sources of summoned meat shields, use skeletons because they don't impact the Concentration economy, use your Concentration effectively, use stealth as much as possible, deny your enemy information. I'm sure [MENTION=6790472]vandaexpress[/MENTION] and other tactically-astute players do similar things in their game.
 

How do you get the skeletons to the dragon's lair? Wouldn't the dragon kill most of them with one lair action? Skeletons have no bonus on saves. They have to stay within command range of the caster. Difficult to spread out in difficult terrain. Most adult and larger dragons have a lair action AoE attack. How do the skeletons navigate the lair unseen and unheard? Then survive the lair actions of the dragon? It has way higher passive perception than even possible for a skeleton's stealth. It would pick them all up moving way in advance. Annihilate them with a lair action or two while not even bothering to close within sight range in the darkness. Could probably do this by the time your air elemental found the dragon. If the air elemental is shadowing the dragon, couldn't the dragon fly off, kill the air elemental, and defeat that tactic? How long would it take an adult dragon to kill an air elemental using all its attacks, breath weapon, lair actions, and legendary action? A round or two?

They walked, just like the PCs.

Lair actions are a total non-factor, as I've explained in detail twice. See #526 paragraph 2.

The dragon should be able to kill an air elemental within two rounds at the outside, one if it gets lucky (rolls high on breath weapon damage and then hits it with multiple tail attacks--remember the elemental has resistance to its tail attacks). Over that time the skeletons alone have inflicted 125-ish points of damage on the dragon if we're fighting in the dark (because they can see it and not vice versa, they have advantage to attack, which cancels out disadvantage from long range). Let's say everyone rolls poorly and the dragon is still alive after killing the elemental. The mage at that level can't summon another [BTW I just noticed that he doesn't have the juice at that level to cast Seeming and Conjure Elemental after all; since it's nighttime we'll stick with Conjure Elemental], but he can Haste one of the bard's owls. Or could if he knew Haste, which he doesn't. Okay, the dragon still has to beat all the skeletons' and owls' initiatives on the third round, survive the owls' opportunity attacks, retreat to its lair and heal up. The odds of it doing so aren't good, but if it does the PCs will adjust: either attack it while it's still at near-zero HP (assumes they can reach the lair easily, which is a reasonable assumption given lair designs that I've seen out of WotC and also reasonable in my own world because dragons find it convenient to have servitors who can reach their lairs to bring them stuff, instead of the dragon having to do everything itself) or rest up, get spell slots back via Arcane Recovery, and try again (this time with only 8 Giant Owls, unless they do a full Long Rest).

Edit: You do realize that lair actions have a range limit of only 120', right? I just noticed that you talk about "annihilating the party without even bothering to close within sight range", but since Giant Owls have 120' darkvision this isn't even possible unless you misread the rules on lair actions.
 
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KarinsDad

Adventurer
I find these "prepare to kill a dragon" ideas make a lot of assumptions about how a DM runs dragons. What adult or older dragon in its right mind doesn't have henchmen, spies, guardians, traps, difficult to find entrances, multiple chambers, (and in my game, all dragons have spells), etc., etc., etc.?

How is it that the PCs can get anywhere near the dragon without it knowing that they are in its territory?


How do the PCs know the range of the Dragon's blindsight, darkvision, etc. in order to make such detailed plans?


How many legendary dragons have the PCs faced before in order to know so much about them and have such good plans?


How come the dragon doesn't have its valuables hidden and protected? Where do these plans of "I'll steal a valuable item from the Dragon hoard" come from? They don't make sense for an Int 14 to 20 Dragon.


The last dragon that my 6th level party of 7 faced was an adult black dragon with four large caverns in his lair, each with a large body of water in them, each body of water separated by underwater tunnels. Each caverns and the tunnels had traps and rooms 1 and 2 had other hidden guardians. The party conversed with it by shouting over an underground lake in the first room and had no idea ahead of time that a dragon even lived there (they assumed when talking with it that it was a dragon by its "reptilian hiss" which I did by slurring its words, but they didn't exactly know what type).

It's primary mode of attack would have been come out of the water, attack, go back into the water.

The players were smart and did not try to get close and attack. They would have lost, several of them would have minimally drowned or got turned back in the trapped collapsing tunnels.

The only dragon the party (level 5) faced and won against was a trapped red dragon half way between young and adult (the dragon was trapped in undermountain where size-wise, it could only fit through a few corridors and hence was limited to a half dozen caverns that it could be in, it couldn't escape from undermountain). They only won there because they had already defeated its guardians (ogres that it had intimidated into serving it) and they managed to fight it in its large lair (and they managed to roll super lucky with bow shots into the dark where they could not see when the dragon decided to flee). The dragon was at a specific disadvantage because it was trapped and did not actually choose its own lair (taking the best available cavern, but far from ideal).


Course, there is no way that I can send a party of 7 against a solo dragon. Action economy alone would crush a dragon. I'm practically required to give the dragon henchmen (shy of making it an extremely powerful dragon).
 

vandaexpress

First Post
I agree that battlegrids are a primary driver of artificially-limited distances. That's one of my motivations for writing my own tools to manage battles, although none of them is far enough along for me to actually use with my players. Le sigh. In the meantime, I run about half of my battles in Theater of the Mind and the other half on a grid.

In principle you could combine the two approaches: e.g. have a detailed zone about 100' on a side representing a building whereon miniatures are used, and anyone who goes off the gird moves into an abstract "away" space where you just note how far away they are from the building. That way anyone who wants to exploit cover and terrain can head for the building and do grid combat, and those who want to keep their distance can play TotM, and you can always figure out how far guys in the building are from each other and from guys who are "away". I haven't ever done this since I just came up with the idea just now, but if we have another fight like the one last week I will try it. Still trying to find the right way to run gargantuan combats in 5E... in theory it should be easy but little things always trip you up.

(And, this is yet another reason why I, like many of you, run practice combats.)

It's funny you mention the "abstract" away space. I've actually considered doing exactly the same thing. I'll need to figure out a good way to handle what happens when someone approaches the "away" space (melee combatants closing in on a distant archer for instance). I'll be experimenting with different ways to handle this and will keep you and others posted if I come up with something. What I'd love is, since I use Roll20 + Projector for a face to face game, if there was a way to, if a creature moves off the main map (we'll call this the "primary battlespace" where we predict the majority of the melee combat will take place) have some sort of split screen or picture-within-picture type option that follows the retreating creature. Then, when it's someone's turn on the primary battlespace, that secondary windows blinks out and instead the character sees arrows along the edge of the screen for each enemy along with distance and... well, this is getting quite involved, hah. I'll probably have to come up with something simpler.

Like the idea of an abstract "away" space though. Just need to find a relatively elegant way to implement it.
 

Celtavian

Dragon Lord
They walked, just like the PCs.

Dave has explained that the lair is not set up so you can walk in easily.

Lair actions are a total non-factor, as I've explained in detail twice. See #526 paragraph 2.

You are doing the red dragon combat. Because white dragon 20 foot radius frosty mist is definitely a factor.

The dragon should be able to kill an air elemental within two rounds at the outside, one if it gets lucky (rolls high on breath weapon damage and then hits it with multiple tail attacks--remember the elemental has resistance to its tail attacks). Over that time the skeletons alone have inflicted 125-ish points of damage on the dragon if we're fighting in the dark (because they can see it and not vice versa, they have advantage to attack, which cancels out disadvantage from long range). Let's say everyone rolls poorly and the dragon is still alive after killing the elemental. The mage at that level can't summon another [BTW I just noticed that he doesn't have the juice at that level to cast Seeming and Conjure Elemental after all; since it's nighttime we'll stick with Conjure Elemental], but he can Haste one of the bard's owls. Or could if he knew Haste, which he doesn't. Okay, the dragon still has to beat all the skeletons' and owls' initiatives on the third round, survive the owls' opportunity attacks, retreat to its lair and heal up. The odds of it doing so aren't good, but if it does the PCs will adjust: either attack it while it's still at near-zero HP (assumes they can reach the lair easily, which is a reasonable assumption given lair designs that I've seen out of WotC and also reasonable in my own world because dragons find it convenient to have servitors who can reach their lairs to bring them stuff, instead of the dragon having to do everything itself) or rest up, get spell slots back via Arcane Recovery, and try again (this time with only 8 Giant Owls, unless they do a full Long Rest).

Why not breath on the owls and take pieces off the board? It could spot the owls 120 feet away when they see him. 60 foot cone will kill a lot of owls. The dragon has vastly superior senses and will pick up on them in advance.

Edit: You do realize that lair actions have a range limit of only 120', right? I just noticed that you talk about "annihilating the party without even bothering to close within sight range", but since Giant Owls have 120' darkvision this isn't even possible unless you misread the rules on lair actions.

Where are the owls? Flying directly around the party? Or are they ahead of it scouting? Are you setting so the dragon can fly in, blast a cone from long range hitting a 60 foot radius area, then fly back out? The dragon even with equivalent darkvision is going to hear just about everyone and know their general area. A 60 foot diameter cone at the end is quite a large area.

Why are you assuming the owls could spread out so far? Is this outside? I assumed this was in a dragon's lair inside an active volcano with varying terrain. You seem to be planning it as though it is an extremely large cave with simple dimensions that allow you to traverse it easily, spread out in a fashion that suits you, and the dragon is easy to hit and can't maneuver behind cover inbetween strafes. I don't get your assumptions. Did Dave tell you the lair was set up for easy travel? None of the dragon lairs I was in would you allow you to execute the tactics you want to execute. They are either too tight and there are tunnels the dragon is set up to breathe down or lots of difficult terrain with places for the dragon to hide behind between attacks.

I'm not quite getting how you spread everything out in such an ideal fashion.

As far as the question if it would breath on a lone owl, it might or at least rip it apart with a strafing attack causing all the skeletons to fire. Once it is hit, I think it's going to know what's going on immediately and adjust accordingly. As you said, your strategy isn't exactly a hard one to figure out. So an adult red dragon would probably realize what was going on and start to pick off owls piecemeal with the breath weapon if necessary knowing that eliminating the owls creates a visibility and mobility advantage for it. Though likely it knows people are in its lair very easy and might just hit and run as your guys are marching down the tunnel or cave to enters its lair. If it flew in, peeked around the tunnel corner, breathed as you're entering, that would solve a lot of its problems unless you're seriously staggering the movement of the creatures. If you do that, it could take things out piecemeal.

Let's say it wanders off for a long time and starts watching for you leave from the entrance you came in. As soon as it hears someone coming back down the tunnel, it peaks in and breathes. It's a cat and mouse game. Once you set up your strategy, the dragon gets to play his. I would certainly enjoy letting you try this. I wouldn't let the lair be something you can wander into with a pack of skeletons and owls. That's quite a strange assumption on your part.
 
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Celtavian

Dragon Lord
That is somewhat similar to how I play dragons, except I also give them all levels in Dragon Sorcerer (so they can e.g. Shield or Blur themselves). Without sorcerer levels they are too easy to kill, although "easy" is still a relative term. Against a vanilla AC 19 adult Red Dragon, one simple strategy that my test party would use at level 11 is: spend some your Necromancer's spell slots (three 4th and one 5th, although I actually use SP) to get 26 skeletons and equip them with longbows and scale mail. Use another 5th level spell slot to cast Seeming to disguise everybody in the party and the skeletons so they all look like identical urds (I know you run blindsight differently, as a form of truesight against illusions, but I don't--and anyway dragons only have 60' of blindsight). Use a dispersed formation spread out over 150' or so, about twice the area of a traffic intersection. Have the wizard waiting under a backup hardpoint with Leomund's Tiny Hut up, as a point of retreat if things go south. (A lot of the details depend on whether you're seeking the dragon in his lair, or expecting him to attack you out in the open. Wall of Force would work approximately as well.) From inside the hut, he spends his concentration on an Air Elemental which he sends with the party. As soon as the dragon enters range (600'), all the skeletons will fire doing 19.13 DPR on each round at long range while the dragon is closing on the party, and another 67.5 DPR at short range once the fight starts in earnest. The dragon's breath weapon is a 60' cone so covers 25% of the area of the formation, so at least 19 skeletons are guaranteed to survive the first breath weapon. That's just the skeletons--the air elemental is adding 14.9 DPR per round, or 22.35 total including the opportunity attack if the dragon tries to evade it to go after PCs, and of course the bardlock's 16 conjured Giant Owls from Conjure Animals V (who also look like urds) are hitting it for 37.6 DPR (plus up to 37.6 more from opportunity attacks) and hits it with Eldritch Blast on top of that for 10.05 DPR while the monk... well, her job is mostly done at that point because she did the recon, but she'll pew-pew with her longbow for 8.95 DPR while the paladin provides healing/blessing/sanctuary/etc. as needed, or adds 17.32 DPR if the dragon gets within melee range.

Total party DPR: 139 to 191.5 plus was inflicted at long range. The dragon has 256 HP and cannot significantly degrade the threat within a single round, so it's basically toast in two rounds against an 11th level party. That's why I give dragons sorcerer levels (Shield alone reduces skeleton DPR to 15.0, or 0.75 at long range) and why I also play up their Stealth and other capabilities (which is why the monk's job is to scout ahead).


Ah. This post. I have not seen a dragon lair that would allow this sort of dispersal. Some tactics that are worth trying. I think the bard wants to try the conjure animals thing. Creating and equipping skeletons with scale mail and marching them to the dragon's lair seems pretty labor intensive. Were you really planning on doing this on the fly where dragon lairs are often in the middle of nowhere? Or you plan to kill some local humanoids and hope they have what you need?
 

Were you really planning on doing this on the fly where dragon lairs are often in the middle of nowhere?

Sure. This isn't even an unusual setup for this party, except that during peacetime Vlad only keeps four to ten skellies onhand, and often leaves them at home during the day. But he's a necromancer, of course he stockpiles bones and armor, just as a noble stockpiles crossbows and a fighter stockpiles wyvern venom.

The point I was making in that post is that vanilla dragons are so laughably weak that even a midlevel party's go-to tactics will destroy it with minimal losses if it engages in any area larger than a traffic intersection. 150' x 50' isn't very big after all--the cafeteria at work is 150' by 150'. If the dragon cannot win an open field battle, he is forced onto the defensive and you use similar tactics to offensively strafe him to death. You can heal and he can't, nor does he regain legendary resistance between strafing runs. Someone who can't do offense effectively will always lose strategically unless their defense is so crushing that they interdict all intruders with perfection. A vanilla dragon can manage that against 3rd level characters, not against 11th. Therefore I make my dragons tough enough that the boring old straightforward go-to strategy becomes uncertain of success. Sorcerer levels do that for me, although I also like the idea of increasing their movement rate on the second round of flight in the same direction.
 

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