D&D (2024) 6E When?

[Parmandur]

Curious on how you see a PHB2 slicing the market. I understand the targeted books. But a PHB2 doesn't seem to be a targeted book to me?

Yeah, that part of the comment was more at the targeted spat book model.

The issue with the PHB2 is that it confuses customers, creates frustration and lost players and sales in the long run. WotC has gone into detail about that specifically before. XGtE serves as both a de facto PHB2 and DMG2, while avoiding any confusion.

 

[FrogReaver]

Yeah, that part of the comment was more at the targeted spat book model.

The issue with the PHB2 is that it confuses customers, creates frustration and lost players and sales in the long run.

So It's just the name that potentially confuses people, not the content.

WotC has gone into detail about that specifically before. XGtE serves as both a de facto PHB2 and DMG2, while avoiding any confusion.

XGtE is nothing like a PHB2 would be.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

I don't think we'll see an edition referred to by WotC as 6th edition. Certainly not as any kind official terminology.

5E is huge, and what's more, it's huge with a lot of people who didn't play OD&D, or 1E through 4E, or played one of them way back when (remembering that even, say, 2000-2004 is "way back when" now, as much as it was the future when I first started posting on Eric Noah's old black board), and only just recently came back. So most of the playerbase isn't excited by or keen on an edition change. They're keen on just "playing D&D". That means continuity and that means backwards compatibility of a strong kind.

I expect what we may actually see is a new-look rulebook and so on in 2024, with some rules changes/updates/clarifications backed into the text, new art, new formatting, and so on. Possibly a new Ranger. But I don't think the changes will be much, if at all, bigger than 3E to 3.5E. So that will effectively be 5.5E. There may well be extra rules, especially optional ones, which you can bolt on, but fundamental changes? Nah.

I guess I sort of agree with Zardnaar in that an actual 6E, a genuine edition-change level of change, will not happen until/unless 5E sales significantly decline. And I think WotC will actually be even more sensitive than that. I think they will wait until people actually seem bored with 5E. Not just not buying it because of saturation. I think saturation will hit years before 6E comes out. I think they'll wait for people to stop playing because of actual boredom and so on, start missing D&D, and then bring out a 6E. And this time there's no doubt they'll fully integrate online stuff, and be ready to go with all that, themselves, for maximum profit, day 1. And I would expect that to contain significant and fundamental rules-changes. But I think we're looking at the other end of the 2020s at the earliest - before 2026 definitely not. 2028-2030? Maybe. They can appeal to the nostalgia of 40-somethings we started with 3E as teenagers and now have kids and stuff... (yes, we will be that old - 15 in 2001 would make you 44 in 2030).

But they probably still won't call it 6E. I'm sure some devious marketing team will come up with something to replace that, and make it clear "this is your daddy's D&D, but also your D&D".

XGtE is nothing like a PHB2 would be.

Really? The material is more or less exactly what I'd expect in a PHB2. I suspect your definition of PHB2 is highly specific and you might want to explain to other people what it is.

 

[OB1]

A new edition will happen only if the cost of attracting a new player to 5e becomes greater than the lifetime value of the player to hasbro and all other methods of attracting new players at a cost less than LV are exhausted.

Creating a new edition is both expensive and not a guarantee of success. Whereas creating new supplements (Rick&Mority, Stranger Things, Ravnica, Ebberon, Avernus) that also fuel PHB sales to new players allows for constant adjustment without the need to start over from scratch.

 

[Parmandur]

So It's just the name that potentially confuses people, not the content.

The name is confusing, yes, bit they don't want to narrow the content to be overly specific either. They had a lot of data showing that the 4E model confused customers, making people think the PHB 2 or 3 were the place to start, because higher numbers are better. Hence, they have said they will never use the name again.

XGtE is nothing like a PHB2 would be.

Sure it is. New Class options, new Background material, new Feats, new player options abound. It's as close as anything will come, at the very least.

 

[dave2008]

DnD is Adv/Disadv, Bonus Actions, Bounded Accuracy, and Hit Dice, now. Full stop.

I wonder about that. Mike Mearls has talked about getting rid of bonus actions several times. I could see 5,5e with updated classes that don't use bonus actions. The would still be compatible with 5e, just with bonus actions taken out.

 

[dave2008]

I doubt you will be happy with whatever 6E turns out to be.

That's the the thing for me. I know whatever changes are made for 6e, will not be the changes I want. I am perfectly happy with 5e as is and just applying my few house rules. The changes I would want beyond that are so far outside the pale of D&D that I know it will never come to pass.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

I wonder about that. Mike Mearls has talked about getting rid of bonus actions several times. I could see 5,5e with updated classes that don't use bonus actions. The would still be compatible with 5e, just with bonus actions taken out.

This is highly implausible.

Bonus actions are too deeply embedded in 5E to simply be removed and "remain compatible". Every single book with mechanics has tons of stuff that uses bonus actions, so you'd have to errata all of them, and even adventures and stuff too. It's not something you could "neatly remove". That Mike Mearls has talked about getting rid of it doesn't mean it's reasonable or doable. I love Mike but sometimes he just talks smack. Plus I'm not sure there's an appetite for such a move from players.

Getting rid of bonus actions would have to be part of a real edition change, with new books all around.

 

[FrogReaver]

The name is confusing, yes, bit they don't want to narrow the content to be overly specific either. They had a lot of data showing that the 4E model confused customers, making people think the PHB 2 or 3 were the place to start, because higher numbers are better. Hence, they have said they will never use the name again.

That's just an issue with the name - not the kind of content that's in it.

Sure it is. New Class options, new Background material, new Feats, new player options abound. It's as close as anything will come, at the very least.

There were no new classes in xanathar's. You won't see 6e till they cross that bridge IMO.

 

[Parmandur]

That's just an issue with the name - not the kind of content that's in it.

Well, they have said the content was also a problem, which is why they experimented with XGtE, an experiment that has paid off wildly in terms of cash money (XGtE is one of the best selling non core books in D&D history, and is still wildly outselling everything as a two year old book).

I'm not just bringing in the PHB2 to XGtE comparison myself, WotC has said explicitly that the XGtE style of content was brought in to replace the PHB2 approach (Mearls, whenever he is asked about the possibility.of a PHB2, for instance).

There were no new classes in xanathar's. You won't see 6e till they cross that bridge IMO.

There were 28 new Subclasses, the real character building unit of note in 5E, and several more reprints. Other than not having new main Classes, in what way was XGtE not both a full PHB2 and DMG2?