Now with your revised table ... damage seems too low on the high end. There is definitely a resource rarity that would come into play. The opportunity cost of not casting some other high level spell is large.
Slightly over 100 HPs for a 9th level single target spell is laughable compared to the foes at that level.
Yeah, the scaling's got to be somewhat exponential past level 5 slots. Unfortunately, the vanilla Fighter doesn't leave enough room for both that and not doing more damage than the Fighter :/
Although Power Word Kill fits the vanilla model, so I'd say my vanilla model's a success at representing the spells we have (mostly), and the failure's really with the thing it's modelling.