Jester David
Hero
Reading the last several pages of this thread has been extremely tiresome and so I shall endeavor to ignore them.
Instead, thought experiment time!
Let's assume two parallel universes:
Universe A, where after the core three books are released, Wizards of the Coast never again releases another 5E product.
and
Universe B, where after the core three books are released, Wizards of the Coast releases big adventure paths and smaller adventures, character options books, and campaign setting sourcebooks.
I'll be charitable to Universe B and assume it's release schedule is much more reserved than 3.x or 4E's, with system bloat accumulating at a much less frenetic pace. Both universes have access to the back catalog of material on D&D Classics.
In which universe will sixth edition be released first?
I honestly don't know and have no idea. I wouldn't want to even guess.
I do believe that a Universe C with monthly or even bi-monthly books would see a 6e sooner than A or B. But that wasn't your question.
Universe A would be one where secondary profit would come from elsewhere: novels, licenced products, other games. So the edition could arguably last longer as the money comes from elsewhere. And the alternative products would bring attention to the brand and RPG (and possibly be more successful as WotC would have to spread D&D out beyond the ghetto of game stores). But accessories do keep people interested in the RPG, which might have a cumultive effect of bringing people into the RPG and sending them to the other product lines generating even more money. That might work out in the favour of Universe B.
That's not considering the people of Universe A doing something sneaky like releasing a Boot Hill, Gamma World, or Alternity as a compatible yet stand alone product that subtly adds new races/monsters/feats.