That's a start. Me, I use a d20; if the aim doesn't need to be fine-tuned (e.g. a fireball into open space with nothing but enemies in the area) than usually anything over about 5 is enough to pretty much put it right where you want. Lower than this, down to and including 2, means you missed by a bit and either I or the player will roll a d8 for direction. On a 1, things can get interesting - maybe the fireball bead wrecked on some obstacle en route, or the lightning bolt didn't bounce* quite like you expected, or you flat-out misjudged the distance; but most often it means you either missed completely or had only very limited effect e.g. you somehow only hit 2 enemies where the chance was there to hit 15. On a confirmed fumble, all bets are off: you might have hit yourself and-or allies, or hit something else you didn't want to hit e.g. the supports holding the roof up, stuff like that.
If you're trying to fine-tune it in any way e.g. put the fireball bead through a small opening or start the lightning bolt at the front line such as to miss your allies but hit the enemies, then the roll gets more difficult on a case-by-case basis. Ditto for spells being cast into an area you can't see, either due to vision impairment or because the target area is behind an obstruction (some non-damage AoE spells can be cast behind obstructions).