I'm just going to port this over from the other thread since this is really talking about the same thing, just from a larger context and its something I feel strongly about. Sorry in advance if this cheeses anyone off...
From another thread...
A friend who just got back from GenCon Socal was relating to me one of the seminars he sat through on the State of the RPG Industry. Besides relating that the news was on the depressing side, he confirmed something that I have suspected for the last year or so… that the industry is losing players. Personally, I think there is some real leadership needed otherwise the table top hobby as we know it is going to atrophy significantly over the next 5-10 years. While I don’t expect everyone to agree with the points I’m about to make, I want to at least get I dialogue going. Often we are so focused on the details of our hobby, that we fail to look at the big picture.
The following my thoughts about the failings of the industry as a whole:
1) Rules Complexity: While there has been enormous creativity in a lot of the rules and options, it is particularly daunting for new players coming into the game. Experienced players may be able to browse through loads of prestige classes, feats, etc., but for a new player this represents potentially thousands of pages of material they may have to understand and synthesize. Moreover, the complexity of 3.5 is greater than past editions. Admittedly, I like 3.5 the best, but I’ve witnessed more DM burnout with 3.5 than with any addition in the past. A good deal of this can be attributed to the added complexity of 3.5 and its proliferation of options. I can’t imagine how difficult it must be for a new DM, just trying to figure out the basics of what books should I buy when there are some many rules variants out there or how to balance all the feats and prestige classes to preserve a game in the long run.
2) Fragmentation: Around the time that TSR was near its end, one of the major problems the sheer number of different game worlds really split its customer base and made it harder to put a group together. It also reduced the utility of game books. If you bought a book for Ravenloft it was very difficult to integrate it with Hollow World perhaps. While some of the initial books from 3rd edition were easy to integrate, over time there has been a sharper increase in industry fragmentation. Not only do you have people fragmented by OD&D, 1st Ed, 2nd Ed, 3rd Ed, 3.5 Ed. But now you have people fragmented by d20 Future, d20 Modern, Greyhawk, Forgotten Realms, Eberron, Dragonlance, Iron Kingdoms, Home Brew, and just a slew more. I’d say this is analogous to having too many programming languages in the computer industry. All the variety is great but learning each new iteration is an investment of time. With people split over some many iterations, I think it has really hurt the industry.
3) New Blood: I remember seeing a poll here some time ago about when people on this board had started roleplaying and was struck to see it was about 10-14 years of age. As I look back the people that stuck with the hobby over the years often started at that age. The game is a lot more likely to capture your imagination in these preteen years and as your transition past this age your probability of trying and/or sticking with the game diminishes. I’d say this is a very unique example of customer lifetime value. The industry acquires its customer 10-14 year age range and for the next 30+ years it harvests value from that customer. The games currently are not very good at acquiring customers in that critical age range because with the proliferation of options and material it is just to darn complex for the average 10-14 year to understand or DM. We need a more simplified version to bring in new players and DMs at this age range. It is more than must just a boxed set, but a significant amount of support material that captures their imagination of the average preteen and good marketing campaign that really appeals to them (not us old groknards).
4) Lack of Leadership: This is just my impression but I think Wizards of the Coast made a huge mistake it letting some very talented people who knew the industry go. When it was acquired by Hasbro it got rid of the game developers who really understood the fundamentals of the industry and replaced them with marketers that didn’t. With what the company is putting out now, I think Wizards of the Coast is really struggling to find its place in the industry. It has opted for a heavy rules and options orientation but is often beaten to the punch by third party publishers. Furthermore, (with the exception of Eberron) its recent work ranks among the most uninspiring and lacks forethought as to the future of the hobby.
5) Lack of Inspiration: First, a disclaimer… there are some very notable exceptions to this such as Dungeon Magazine, Iron Kingdoms, Eberron, etc., however, the bulk of stuff put out by the roleplaying industry lacks inspiration. There are just too many books on prestige classes, feats, etc. with no context other to give players and unfair advantage over game balance. If the gaming industry were a farmer its activities would be broken into two parts. There are certain activities that grow the grain and other activities that harvest the grain. Growing the grain helps to build the player base of the industry as a whole, however, harvesting the grain is what makes money. What increases the player base of the industry are memorable roleplaying experiences and what helps to create these are modules, works with more fluff than crunch, good DMing, etc. Unfortunately, the products which support these activities are not in themselves profitable for individual companies but benefit the industry as a whole. Other activities such as crunch books are what harvest the grain and what actually make money for companies. I’d argue that the majority of gaming companies these days are far too caught up in harvesting the grain and not enough are growing the grain. And who is to blame them because they are in business to make money, but the industry as a whole needs to somehow think about how to support both activities.
6) Lack of Stewardship – I’m sorry to say this but the majority of roleplayers are just not very good representatives of our hobby. We have to take a step back and think how we come across to the general populace. What mom is going to want her kid playing roleplaying games when a large proportion of the roleplaying populace is in bad shape, bad health, lack manners, are not friendly, wear dour expressions half the time, etc. I know I’m overgeneralizing a bit here but there is a lot we can do to be better representatives for our hobby.
Anyway, I apologize in advance if I have offended anybody. The intent is that I want to see roleplaying games continue to thrive for years to come and not go the way of something like bridge where it’s mainly played in old folks homes. I encourage you to disagree with me, but if you do my challenge to you is to identify what are the industry’s problems and what can we do about them for the future.
. The way Nobilis is written has absolutely nothing to do with the decrease of the RPG market. Nobilis has no influence whatsoever on the RPG market. 
). One other guy who was always a DM for D&D games in Middle Earth switched to building modules for NWN. The internet has several advantages over P&P games: the rules are taken care of by the computer, and putting groups together is much easier. I suppose that we will see further migration of RPG players into this direction and that the new generation will generally start there already today.
