D&D 5E Brand Vs RPG

[Hussar]

Just a point on forum size. En World is much much larger now than before.

 

[Zardnaar]

Just a point on forum size. En World is much much larger now than before.

True but the traffic seems a lot lower then the height of the old WoTC boards (circa 2001/2002).

 

[Eejit]

True but the traffic seems a lot lower then the height of the old WoTC boards (circa 2001/2002).

Specialist forums globally have seen a downturn in traffic since the rise of Reddit

 

[delericho]

Buying online was still very new back then and most sales of 3rd edition books came from actual brick and mortar shops, not to mention that you weren't buying those books at 20 to 30% off like you can from Amazon.

Of course, the first printing of the 3e core rulebooks were deliberately priced at a reduced rate - $20 instead of the normal $30. So, actually, there was a 33% discount built in from the get-go.

 

[Zardnaar]

Specialist forums globally have seen a downturn in traffic since the rise of Reddit

Isn't Reddit itself just forums? In 2012 I was playing a game where an entire clan was named Reddit. Said clan was not very good but it definitely helped with recruitment for them and they were one of the bigger/reliable clans out off the semi major clans. I think they lasted longer than the goons.

 

[delericho]

The 40k 5E PHB sold on Amazon was in April here on ENworld (they got that info via software used on Amazon) and apparently Amazon sells abot 30% of a books total release. That would have put the ales of a 5E PHB around 110k...

Huh. If those numbers are accurate, then I've massively over-estimated how well 5e is doing.

 

[Zardnaar]

Huh. If those numbers are accurate, then I've massively over-estimated how well 5e is doing.

That was in 9 months and the estimate was based the usual % of books sold on Amazon but the numbers also feed into the the estimates coming out of ICV2 sales.

Make no mistake 5E has been a smash hit. Its unlikely they have sold more in the 1st year than 3.0 or the BECMI boxed set. The upper limit is probably 200k PHB but that would be close to all of the RPG market increase from 2014-15 according to ICV2 estimate. People see best seller on Amazon and assume hundreds of thousands of units sold but much like a NYT best seller one can do that without actually moving that many units. 5E is selling like gangbusters though for an RPG and D&D. Its selling faster in units than virtually every other edition of D&D (3.5 included) with the exception of 3.0 and the Basic Red box and maybe the 2E PHB (which actually outsold the 1E PHB in its 1st year). 3.0 was stupidly front loaded though (resulting in 3.5 being brought forward 2 years) so 5E might outsell that as well (eventually) just not in the 1st month or year IMHO.

1E had 40k print runs at times though and was reprinted something like 16 or 17 times including into the launch of 2E with the final print run in 1990 (before the 2012 reprints). It was a slow burner by modern standards and had several adventures sell 100k+ units or even 200k+ for some of them.

 

[Eejit]

Isn't Reddit itself just forums? In 2012 I was playing a game where an entire clan was named Reddit. Said clan was not very good but it definitely helped with recruitment for them and they were one of the bigger/reliable clans out off the semi major clans. I think they lasted longer than the goons.

It is, in effect. With thousands of sub-forums. Reddit has been sucking people away to a noticeable extent from the more specialised forums that pre-date it.

 

[delericho]

Make no mistake 5E has been a smash hit. Its unlikely they have sold more in the 1st year than 3.0 or the BECMI boxed set. The upper limit is probably 200k PHB but that would be close to all of the RPG market increase from 2014-15 according to ICV2 estimate. People see best seller on Amazon and assume hundreds of thousands of units sold but much like a NYT best seller one can do that without actually moving that many units. 5E is selling like gangbusters though for an RPG and D&D.

Sure, I get all that. But from Chris Perkins, "If we told you the number..." tweet, I'd assumed rather more - indeed, I was working from the assumption that they were nearing a million core rulebooks sold (I didn't have a specific number for just the PHB, but it would have been more than half of that).

So, as you can see, my estimates would be way off.

And that, in turn, means any estimates of how the other books are selling should be reconsidered. I didn't believe "Rise of Tiamat" had sold 100k copies when that represented ~15% of PHB sales; there's no way I believe it if it's closer to 50%. Indeed, I don't believe any of the adventures (Starter Set excluded) made that mark.

 

[Parmandur]

The Amazon tracker is flawed; 40k is floor for what Amazon sold, an fit is unknowable how much more it may have sold than that.

Honestly, the Basic Rules are genius in that there are a ton of folks playing without buying a thing. Which helps their brand, bit also helps the game long term.