A nearly-identical question is the relative merit of Sly Flourish vs. Piercing Strike. If we restrict to melee hits and ignore style feats, Sly Flourish easily does +3-5 damage over Piercing Strike, but if targeting reflex gives a 2-3 point accuracy buff, is that worth it?

Obviously there is a limit here -- 100% accuracy for tiny damage (Magic Missile) isn't as good as 60-70% accuracy for much larger, better-scaling damage. There is also a gameplay aspect, since a 5% chance of doing 100 damage and a 100% chance of doing 5 damage might have the same expected value, but the variance brings excitement (and potentially frustration). Mathematically, I'm more interested in both pure expected DPR and nova-round value for a single-attacking class, since I assume Avengers and Rangers could take a hit on accuracy before a Rogue would want to.

Furthermore, for example, if a player hits only on a roll of 16 or higher, then a +1 accuracy bonus increases hit-rate by 20%, while if a player hits on a roll of, say, 4 or higher, a +1 accuracy bonus increases hit-rate by only 6%. This might mean that accuracy matters marginally more for, say, Barbarians than it does for a traditionally more accurate class like Avengers, Rangers, or Rogues -- independently of a barbarian's often-massive damage bursts.

In short, the question could be boiled down to the sliding and conditional relative worth of 1 point of accuracy and 1 point of damage.

Secondarily I am interested in how 1 point of defense would be included in the calculus. E.g., Draji Palatial Practice (DSCS) gives the target an full round of

*automatic*-2 penalty to attack rolls. How does an automatic -2 accuracy debuff, regardless of hit or miss, compare to simply targeting Reflex (via Piercing Strike) in the first place at roughly +2 accuracy over AC?