D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

Where did that 15-20% number come from? That seem unbelievably high. Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.

I’ve seen that number in some press releases from those fighting the bug, based on averaging the numbers from various countries This article reports China hospitalized 15% of its cases, of which a third were in critical care. Italy was the worst, with a reported hospitalization rate of @50%. But Italy’s population demographics and late response were huge factors in that.

What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.

www.statnews.com

 

[Hussar]

My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.

Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.

Ok, why would you even go that far?

China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.

Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this? Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things? When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US? Again, you're just fear mongering.

Yup, 80000 cases in the US. That's bad. But, we're look at a country of 350 million people. Perspective is very much needed here folks. No, this is not the apocalypse. We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us. You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths? in the US? dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.

Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?

 

[Olrox17]

Ok, why would you even go that far?

China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.

Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this? Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things? When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US? Again, you're just fear mongering.

Yup, 80000 cases in the US. That's bad. But, we're look at a country of 350 million people. Perspective is very much needed here folks. No, this is not the apocalypse. We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us. You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths? in the US? dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.

Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?

You’ll deal with it if you, the American people, start dealing with it, instead of relying on blind, unfounded optimism.

“It’s gonna be fine coz we’re the best country evah” isn’t going to cut it. You'll have to make some sacrifices.

 

[Hussar]

You’ll deal with it if you, the American people, start dealing with it, instead of relying on blind, unfounded optimism.

“It’s gonna be fine coz we’re the best country evah” isn’t going to cut it. You'll have to make some sacrifices.

Oh, of course. ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))

No one is saying do nothing. But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst. If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem? Or Japan?

Heck, our kids go back to school next week. We did our due dilligence. We stayed home for a month. We closed down the country. And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.

It's like the testing thing. Testing doesn't really do anything. Guess what? This is a virus. They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive. Zero. Zilch. There has never, ever been a cure for any virus. What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.

The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem. Because they panicked. And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue. And it's going to take some time to resolve. But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful. At all.

 

[Olrox17]

Oh, of course. ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))

No one is saying do nothing. But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst. If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem? Or Japan?

Heck, our kids go back to school next week. We did our due dilligence. We stayed home for a month. We closed down the country. And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.

It's like the testing thing. Testing doesn't really do anything. Guess what? This is a virus. They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive. Zero. Zilch. There has never, ever been a cure for any virus. What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.

The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem. Because they panicked. And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue. And it's going to take some time to resolve. But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful. At all.

Personally, I'm not sure the data on deaths provided by chinese authorities is entirely genuine, but that's beside the point.
You're right, panicking isn't helpful and should be avoided. Downplaying the crisis, however, could be extremely damaging and lead to massive loss of human lives.
Right now, the best attitude is to be stoic and disciplined, only listening to the certified experts and following their lead. If they tell to stay home, you stay home. If they tell there's no need to stock up on 6 months of supplies, you don't do that. It's kinda like a war, really.

 

[Sadras]

One lived in Colorado, she read Reuters and BBC. She didn't know about Italy.

I have an aunt and uncle in Atlanta. They didnt know about building no 7. I live in Cape Town. Sadly the news agencies these days are more about tweets, third-rate opinions and tabloid trivia than actually educating the public on what is happening. Chernobyl the lot of them!

 

[GreyLord]

Why worry about the US?

China has a Billion people. They managed to subside it (from outward appearances) by extreme drastic measures (welding people inside their homes, people dying of starvation kept in homes, etc...etc...etc.).

They had over 80K cases.

The US only has 350 million in comparison. Less than 1/3 of China. The US now has more COVID than China did and it hasn't even gotten close to it's peak.

I would think most nations at this point should ban any travel from the US, ban anything coming from the US, and isolate the US until they have had the plague go through it. They are the hotspot right now and it does not seem contained. Seems an easy way to get migration from COVID is to things come from the US to other nations.

This is a war, not against a nation, but against a disease. It is a war I think we will win as a race (humans), but unless we treat the disease as the enemy, we are going to have more losses than victories in the beginning. Right now I think many are still playing politics or economics rather than facing the common enemy we all have.

And that's the limit of what I'll say on that as it's not really why I made this thread.

On brighter concerns, did another D&D session today. Made it a little further in the Dungeon. It went a little better today though it still doesn't beat face to face.

However, in these times of concern, we do what we must to support the community efforts. I am having to accept their statements on what they rolled at face value. I've heard of dice rolling apps for phones, I'm thinking of maybe having them all download those so that they roll them then hold up the results to the screen so I can validate the rolls. They rolled VERY WELL today. It's not that I don't trust them, having played with them for a while...but those were some VERY LUCKY rolls today. It was typical to do maximum damage in combat...which if it happens over 50% of the time seems rather...odd. Could happen...but doesn't seem likely.

 

[Hussar]

/snip
It's kinda like a war, really.

I dunno. Maybe I'm just a little more blase because this isn't exactly my first rodeo. I was here for SARS. I was here for MERS. Bird flu. Swine flu. Couple of others as well.

Still here.

Keeping calm, do your due dilligence and everything will be fine. Stories of welding people in their homes, well, if you're getting your news from The Sun, perhaps changing the channel might be a better notion.

 

[briggart]

The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem. Because they panicked. And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue. And it's going to take some time to resolve. But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful. At all.

Not sure where you got that, but Italy healthcare system being overwhelmed had nothing to do with testing. Italy switched to testing only symptomatic people on 28/02, at that time we had about 800-900 confirmed cases and ~20 death, which is something the healthcare system could manage. I'm not saying it was business as usual, but the system was able to hold much more than that. The stated reason why we switched testing policy was to follow WHO guidelines.

The comparison with Japan is interesting. Demographics is very similar, but Japan seems to be faring better than pretty much all European countries, so it suggests that the difference is not given by the Italian healthcare having reached saturation point, but something else specific to Japan.

 

[Oofta]

Where did that 15-20% number come from? That seem unbelievably high. Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.

The governor of the state who got it from specialists and consultants. AKA professionals whose job it is to figure out this kind of thing.